The first-round series between the Timberwolves and Nuggets is tied at two games apiece heading into game five. Tip-off is at 10:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in Denver and is being televised on TNT. The Nuggets are favored by four points at home and are -184 on the money line. The Timberwolves are +152, and the over/under line is 205.5 points.


The Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves +4

This game will be played at Ball Arena at 10:30 ET on Tuesday, May 14th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-113 in favor of the Timberwolves.
  • Our projections have Anthony Edwards finishing with Anthony Edwards points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Timberwolves finishing with a field goal percentage of 48.4% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Nuggets picked up an 8-point win in the most recent game of this series, beating the Timberwolves 115-107. Denver was a 3.5-point underdog heading into the game, but they easily covered the spread. The over/under line for the game was 205 points, and the teams surpassed that by 17 points.

Denver got off to a good start in the game, outscoring the Timberwolves 29-24 in the first quarter and 35-25 in the 2nd. The Nuggets shot the ball well from the field, hitting 57% of their shots and 44.8% of their threes. Nikola Jokic had a big game for Denver, putting up 35 points and 7 assists. Anthony Edwards had a big game for the Timberwolves, scoring 44 points and hitting five threes.

Are Minnesota Ready for a Road Win?

Minnesota is 13-10 as the underdog this season and has covered the spread in their last four games as the underdog. In those games, they have gone 15-8 against the spread as the underdog.

The Timberwolves' ATS record on the road is 26-18, and they have won four straight games against the spread on the road. As the underdog, they are 20-25 ATS on the road and 31-35 overall.

Minnesota's O/U record for the season is 47-43, and their games have averaged 218.9 points per game. Today's O/U line is 205.5, and their games have averaged 220 points per game.

In their last game against the Nuggets, the Timberwolves lost 115-107. The O/U line for that game was 205, and Minnesota was favored by 3.5 points. This loss dropped their ATS record to 46-43 for the season.

Minnesota is currently 3rd in the Western Conference with a record of 56-26. Against Western Conference opponents, they are 37-15 and 12-4 in their division. On the road, the Timberwolves are 30-15.

Minnesota comes into the game as the NBA's 8th-best shooting team, at 48% from the field. They are also the league's 2nd-best three-point shooting team, at 38%. Despite their strong shooting numbers, they are just 18th in scoring, at 113 points per game. The Timberwolves have been a little better on the road this season, averaging 114.1 points per game compared to 111.4 at home.

Anthony Edwards is averaging 34.6 points per game over his last five games while hitting 59.6% of his shots from the field. In this stretch, he is averaging 3.8 made threes per game. Karl-Anthony Towns has hit 58.3% of his threes in his last five games and averaged 2.8 made threes per contest. Rudy Gobert has yet to make a three this season.

When it comes to defense, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best unit in the NBA this season, allowing just 106.2 points per game. That number is even better on the road, where they are giving up just 108.6 points per game (2nd).

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 79.3% of games vs. Minnesota. That number jumps to 76.8% when it comes to three-point shooting, as opponents have made fewer threes than their season average in nearly 77% of games vs. the Timberwolves.

Over their last five games, the Timberwolves have given up 105.4 points per game (8th). During that stretch, opponents have shot 48.8% from the field and 40.7% from three.

Will Denver Make it Happen at Home?

Currently, the Nuggets are favored by 4 points at home against the Timberwolves. This season, Denver has been favored in 78 of their 82 games and has a record of 56-22 as the favorite. However, they have failed to cover the spread in their last four home games.

Denver's ATS record for the season is 42-47, and they have covered the spread in their last two games. At home, they are 22-23 ATS compared to 20-24 ATS on the road.

In their win over the Timberwolves on Sunday, the Nuggets won by a score of 115-107. Going into the game, they were 3.5-point underdogs, and the O/U line was 205 points.

With a 57-25 record, the Nuggets are currently 2nd in the Western Conference. Against other Western Conference teams, they have gone 33-19 and are 24-6 in non-conference games.

This season, Denver has an O/U record of 37-52-2, and their games have averaged a combined 223.1 points. Today's O/U line is set at 205.5 points.

Denver comes into the game as the 15th ranked scoring offense, at 114.9 points per game. Their home scoring average of 116.5 points per contest is 11th in the league. The Nuggets have a field goal percentage of 49% this season, which is the 4th best mark in the NBA.

Nikola Jokic has been playing well of late, averaging 26.4 points, 8.4 assists, and 13 rebounds in his last five games. Over this stretch, he shot 51.5% from the field. Jamal Murray is questionable for the game, but over his last five, he has averaged 20 points and 5.2 assists while hitting 40% of his threes.

Coming into tonight's game, the Denver Nuggets have been one of the stingiest defenses in the league, allowing just 109.1 points per game, which is 6th best in the NBA. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 103 points per contest.

One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to defend the three-point line. On the season, they are allowing opponents to shoot just 35.2% from beyond the arc, which is 2nd best in the league. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 35.7% from deep.

When it comes to rebounding, the Nuggets have been solid, ranking 7th in the league at 44.4 boards per game. They have also been able to protect the rim, blocking 5.6 shots per contest, which is 11th best in the NBA.