Narratives tend to shape the betting markets, especially in the NFL Playoffs. On one side, you’ve got a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team led by Tom Brady with elite skill position talent and a defense that was highly-rated earlier in the year. On the other side, you have a team with a losing record that won the worst division in football.
As a result, the Buccaneers are more than a touchdown favorite heading to Landover, MD for Saturday’s primetime Wild Card Weekend game against the Washington Football Team. The Bucs are -8.5 at Bovada Sportsbook with a total of 45.
This is the first time since 2011 that a road team has been a favorite of this magnitude in the playoffs. The last time it happened, the Seahawks beat the favored Saints outright at home. That game has no bearing on this one a decade later, except to illustrate that an upset is possible.
Possible, but unlikely, right?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers had a late bye week. During this weird and unique COVID season, Tampa Bay had to play 12 straight games prior to a week off. With a 43-year-old quarterback and no preseason to work together, you can see why the Bucs were 7-5 at the break. They went 4-0 after the bye, winning three of the four games by double digits. That 43-year-old turned the clock back by throwing 40 touchdown passes for just the second time in his career and put up numbers similar to his 2017 season with the Patriots. That one ended with a Super Bowl ring. For Tom Brady, this will be his first trip to the playoffs with a different team, but he’s having as good a season as he’s had in quite some time. Over those last four games after the bye, Brady had a 12/1 TD/INT ratio with a 69.1% completion rate. He averaged 11.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. This Buccaneers offense is really clicking going into the postseason. The negative MRI for Mike Evans and the better health in the second half of the season for Chris Godwin are additional positives going into this game. That being said, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the Tampa defense. The Bucs still graded out fifth for the full season in DVOA and were the top rushing defense in the NFL, but opponents exceeded 350 yards in six of the last nine games and the defense looked suspect at times. The Bucaneers defense did get better and make adjustments as games went along. Tampa Bay allowed 7.6 adjusted net yards per pass attempt in the first half and then 5.0 in the second half.GET THE FULL LAS VEGAS EXPERIENCE AT BOVADA SPORTSBOOK