Nevada Wolf Pack vs Boise State Broncos Betting Pick & Prediction 11/9/24
FOX is set to televise the week 11 matchup between the Nevada Wolf Pack and Boise State Broncos, with kick-off scheduled for 8:00 ET at Albertsons Stadium in Boise. The Broncos are the heavy favorite with a -24 point spread, and the over/under line is at 60.5 points. Boise State enters the game with a 7-1 record, while Nevada is 3-7 on the season.
NEVADA WOLF PACK VS BOISE STATE BRONCOS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Nevada Wolf Pack +24
This game will be played at Albertsons Stadium at 8:00 ET on Saturday, November 9th.
WHY BET THE NEVADA WOLF PACK:
- We have the Boise State Broncos winning this one by a score of 38 to 19
- Even though we like the Boise State Broncos to win, our ATS pick is to take the Nevada Wolf Pack at +24
- We see this game finishing below the line of 60.5 points
Will The Nevada Wolf Pack Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Nevada heads into Week 11 with a 3-7 record, and they have a 0.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 100th in our power rankings and have gone 1-3 on the road and 1-4 at home this season.
The Wolf Pack has not been favored in any games this season, and their average scoring margin is -4 points per game. Against the spread, they are 4-4-1, with a 2-2 record on the road and a 2-2-1 mark at home.
This week’s over/under line is set at 60.5 points, the highest for Nevada this season. Their over/under record is 5-4, with an average line of 48.4 points and an average total of 53.2 points per game.
Nevada’s offense ranks 67th in our power rankings heading into week 11, and they are averaging 24.6 points per game, placing them 73rd nationally. Their run game is their strength, with the 6th most rushing attempts per game, averaging 189.1 yards on the ground, which ranks 14th. Savion Red leads the team with 676 rushing yards, eight touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis has thrown for 1,542 yards, and Nevada ranks 32nd in completions per game. They are 8th in third-down conversions, converting 50% of their attempts. Lewis has 11 touchdown passes and five interceptions, with a passer rating of 95. Jaden Smith leads the receivers with 630 yards and four touchdowns.
Nevada’s defense has struggled this season, giving up an average of 28.6 points per game. In their recent 38-21 loss to Colorado State, they allowed 38 points, including 170 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. The secondary gave up 157 passing yards but no touchdowns.
Opponents have averaged 160.4 rushing yards per game against Nevada, ranking them 104th nationally. The Wolf Pack’s defense has faced 30.3 pass attempts per game, allowing 229.5 passing yards and a 61.7% completion rate.
Are The Boise State Broncos Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Boise State heads into Week 11 against Nevada with a 7-1 record and is ranked 19th in our power rankings. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible and a 77.5% chance of winning the Mountain West. Nationally, they have the 8th best odds to make the playoff at 69.7%.
The Broncos have gone 3-0 at home and 3-1 on the road this season. They’ve been favored in six of their eight games and have a perfect 6-0 record as the favorite. Boise State’s average scoring margin this season is +20.1 points, and they are 5-1-1 against the spread.
Boise State’s over/under record is 5-2, with their games averaging 71.4 points. Their average over/under line is 61.5 points, and this week’s line is set at 60.5 points.
Boise State’s offense has been impressive this season, ranking 3rd in scoring with 45.8 points per game and 4th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 11. Their ground game has been the focal point, averaging 270.2 rushing yards per game, placing them 4th nationally.
Ashton Jeanty has been the standout performer, rushing for 1,525 yards and 20 touchdowns, averaging 8 yards per carry. Quarterback Maddux Madsen has thrown for 1,789 yards with 17 touchdowns and just two interceptions, earning a passer rating of 110.
Boise State’s defense is allowing 25.6 points per game this season, ranking 49th nationally. They’ve given up an average of 249 passing yards per game, which ranks 132nd, with opposing quarterbacks posting a 97.8 passer rating and a 62.8% completion rate. On the ground, Boise State is allowing 115.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 36th, on 33.2 rushing attempts per game.
In their recent game against San Diego State, Boise State’s defense allowed 24 points but forced two interceptions. They gave up 256 total yards, including 101 rushing yards on 26 attempts and 155 passing yards.