Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick & Prediction 5/3/24

The Mavericks have a chance to close out this Western Conference first-round series with the Clippers on Friday night. Dallas leads the series 3-2 heading into game six, and they are favored by 7.5 points. The over/under line is at 206.5, and the Mavericks are -339 on the money line compared to the Clippers at +266. Tip-off is at 9:30 PM ET from the American Airlines Center in Dallas and ESPN is carrying the game on TV.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS DALLAS MAVERICKS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Los Angeles Clippers +7.5

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 9:30 ET on Friday, May 3rd.

WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 117-116 in favor of the Mavericks.
• Our projections have Luka Doncic finishing with Luka Doncic points, 9 rebounds and 10 assists.
• From the field, we have the Mavericks finishing with a field goal percentage of 50.5% and knocking down 14 threes.

The Mavericks picked up a big win in the most recent game of this series, beating the Clippers by a score of 123-93. Dallas was favored by three points heading into the game, and their 30-point win was more than enough to cover the spread. The Mavericks took control of the game in the 2nd quarter, outscoring the Clippers 31-22, and they also held a 34-24 advantage in the 4th quarter. The 216 combined points were 8 more than the over/under line of 208.

Luka Doncic had a big game for the Mavericks, finishing with 35 points, 10 assists, and 7 rebounds. As a team, the Mavericks shot the ball well, making 54% of their shots. The Clippers, on the other hand, shot just 37.9% from the field and knocked down only nine threes. Paul George and Ivica Zubac each had 15 points for the Clippers.

Is A Road Victory Likely for Underdog Los Angeles?

Today’s O/U line of 206.5 is lower than all of the Clippers’ previous games this season. On average, their games have finished with 226.9 points, and their games have averaged 226.7 points per game.

LA’s O/U record for the season is 40-46-1, and they have gone over the projected total in their last two games. This season, the Clippers have a record of 51-31.

The Clippers are 7.5-point underdogs today and went 7-16 as underdogs this season. In games where they were favored, LA went 46-18 and 32-32 vs. the spread.

When looking at their ATS record, the Clippers are 40-47 overall and 21-22 on the road. Their straight-up road record is 27-16, which is 9th in the Western Conference.

LA is currently 4th in the West and went 30-22 against other Western Conference teams. In their last game vs. the Mavericks, the Clippers lost 123-93. They were 3-point underdogs in that game.

Looking at the Clippers’ offense, they are averaging 115.3 points per game on the road this season, compared to their season average of 115.6 points per contest. This is the 12th best mark in the league. Los Angeles is also a top-10 team in field goal percentage, as they have hit 48% of their shots this season, which is the 8th best mark in the league.

James Harden is averaging 22.2 points per game in his last five games, while shooting 47.9% from the field. Over this stretch, he knocked down 3.6 threes per game. Paul George has also been shooting the ball well of late, averaging 19.8 points per game on a shooting percentage of 42.9%. Across his last five games, Ivica Zubac is averaging 16 points and 9 rebounds while shooting 61% from the field.

The Los Angeles Clippers have been a top-15 defense this season, allowing 112.0 points per game, which is 11th in the NBA. When playing on the road, they have been even better, ranking 9th at 112.0 points per game.

Over their last five games, the Clippers have been the 8th best defense in the league, giving up just 105.6 points per game. During this stretch, opponents have shot 45.9% from the field and 33.5% from beyond the arc.

For the season, opponents have made fewer threes than their season average 62.2% of the time against the Clippers. Overall, Los Angeles has been a solid defensive rebounding team, ranking 16th in the league.

Can the Mavericks Hold Strong at Home?

Dallas is favored by 7.5 points in today’s game against the Clippers. The Mavericks have a record of 40-15 as the favorite this season and have gone 35-20 ATS as the favorite.

In their games this season, the average combined scoring total has been 231.9 points, which is higher than today’s O/U line of 206.5. The Mavs’ last two games have gone over the O/U line.

Dallas’ ATS record at home this season is 22-21, while they are 26-17 straight up at home. In Western Conference games, they are 31-21 and are currently 5th in the West.

The Mavericks’ last game was also against the Clippers, which they won by a score of 123-93. They covered the spread as 3-point favorites and the O/U line for the game was 208.

On the season, Dallas has an O/U record of 39-48 and their last two games have gone over the line. This year, their games have averaged 233.6 points per game.

For the season, Luka Doncic is averaging 30.2 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 41.7% of his shots from the field. Across his last five games, Kyrie Irving is averaging 25.8 points per game while shooting 50% from the field. So far this season, Irving has hit 41.1% of his threes.

Dallas is 8th in scoring this season, at 117.9 points per game. They are also 9th in home games, averaging 118.1 points per contest. The team’s pace of 99.6 possessions per game is 13th in the league. The Mavericks are among the league leaders in both three-point attempts and makes this season.

So far this season, the Dallas Mavericks are 18th in the league in points allowed per game at 114.8. At home, they are 19th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 114.5.

Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even better on the defensive end, allowing just 100.2 points per game, which is 4th in the league during that stretch.

One area where Dallas has struggled defensively this season is defending the three-point line. On the year, they are 20th in the NBA in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 36.9%. Over their last five games, the Mavericks have been even worse in that area, giving up 39.8% shooting from three-point range.