Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic Betting Pick & Prediction 5/3/24

Game six of this Eastern Conference first-round series between the Cavaliers and Magic is set for 7:00 PM ET from the Kia Center in Orlando. The Cavaliers lead the series 3-2 and are looking to close it out on Friday night. ESPN is carrying the game on TV, and the Magic are favored by four points at home. The over/under line is at 199 points, and the Magic are at -174 on the money line compared to the Cavaliers at +144.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS VS ORLANDO MAGIC BETTING PICK

The Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers +4

This game will be played at Kia Center at 7:00 ET on Friday, May 3rd.

WHY BET THE CLEVELAND CAVALIERS:

• We have this one finishing with a projected score of 108-107 in favor of the Magic.
• Our projections have Paolo Banchero finishing with Paolo Banchero points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists.
• From the field, we have the Magic finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.3% and knocking down 12 threes.

Paolo Banchero had a huge game for the Magic in the most recent game of this series, scoring 39 points on 58.3% shooting and knocking down four threes. Banchero’s big game was not enough to get Orlando the win, as the Cavaliers won 104-103. Cleveland was led by Donovan Mitchell’s 28 points. The Cavaliers were 4.5-point favorites at home and just missed covering the spread. The over/under line for the game was 202.5 points, and the teams combined for 207.

Cleveland jumped out to a 33-23 lead after the first quarter, but the Magic responded with a 24-15 second quarter to take a 47-48 lead into halftime. The Cavs outscored the Magic 33-29 in the 4th to pull out the win. Cleveland’s 43.2% shooting was below their season average, and they made 13 threes. On the other side, Orlando shot just 29% from three-point range.

Can The Cavaliers Secure a Win at Orlando?

The Cavaliers have an O/U record of 43-43-1 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 221.2 points per game. Today’s O/U line of 199 is lower than all of their previous games this season.

In their last game against the Magic, the Cavaliers won 104-103. The O/U line for that game was 202.5 points. This improved their overall record to 48-34 for the season.

Cleveland’s ATS record for the season is 40-45, and they have failed to cover the spread in their last three games. As the underdog, they are 11-20 ATS on the road and 14-16 overall.

Looking at their vs. the spread record, the Cavaliers are 19-22 on the road and 21-23 at home. Currently, they are 6th in the Eastern Conference and have gone 31-21 against other teams in the East.

For the season, the Cavaliers have been the underdog in 31 of their 82 games. As the underdog, they are 11-20 straight-up and 14-16 ATS. On the road, they have an average scoring differential of -0.6 points per game.

This season, the Cavaliers are averaging 112.6 points per game, which is 23rd in the league. They have been slightly better on the road, at 109.6 points per game, compared to 113.4 at home. Cleveland’s field goal percentage of 47% is 13th best in the league, and they are also 13th in true shooting percentage.

Donovan Mitchell is averaging 26.6 points per game this season, which is the 5th best mark in the NBA. Over his last five games, he has hit 41.7% of his shots from the field and averaged 22.4 points. Caris LeVert is averaging 14 points per game for the season, and Evan Mobley is averaging 9.4 rebounds and 15.7 points.

When it comes to defense, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the best units in the league this season. They are currently 7th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 109.7. Over their last five games, they have been even better, giving up just 101 points per contest.

One area where the Cavaliers have been particularly strong is in defending the paint. They are 4th in the league in two-point shooting percentage allowed at 52.5%. Over their last five games, they have been even better, ranking 11th in two-point shooting percentage allowed.

Overall, Cleveland is 6th in field goal percentage allowed at 46.4%. From beyond the arc, they are 10th in three-point shooting percentage allowed.

Can Orlando Pull Off a Home Win?

Orlando is favored by 4 points today against the Cavaliers. This season, the Magic have been favored in 40 of their 82 games and have gone 31-9 in those games. As the favorite, they are 28-12 ATS, with an average scoring margin of +9.5 points per game.

In their last game against the Cavaliers, the Magic lost by a score of 104-103. Orlando was a 4.5-point underdog going into the game, giving them an ATS win. The O/U line for that game was 202.5.

This season, the Magic have an O/U record of 40-47, with an average over/under line of 220.2. In their games, the average combined scoring total is 217.5 points, which is higher than today’s line of 199.

Orlando is currently in 5th place in the Eastern Conference with a record of 47-35. In the Southeast Division, they are in 1st place. The Magic have gone 32-20 against other teams in the East and 15-15 against the West.

At home, the Magic are 31-12 this season and have won six straight games. Against the spread, they are 30-13 at home and 54-33 overall. On the road, their ATS record is 24-20 compared to 18-26 straight up.

Orlando comes into the game as one of the worst scoring teams in the league, averaging 110.5 points per game. They are also below average in terms of pace, at 96.6 possessions per game. Looking at their three-point shooting numbers, the Magic are last in the league in made threes per game, at 11 per contest. They are also near the bottom of the league in three-point attempts.

Paolo Banchero has been playing well of late for the Magic, averaging 24.8 points per game in his last five games. This has come while hitting 48.5% of his shots from the field. Over this stretch, he also hit 2.2 threes per game. Jalen Suggs is averaging 14.2 points per game over the team’s last five games, but he shot just 24% from outside in those games. For the season, Banchero is averaging 1.5 made threes per game.

When it comes to defense, the Orlando Magic have been one of the best units in the league this season, ranking 2nd in points allowed per game at 107.6. This has been a trend both at home and on the road, as they are giving up just 104.1 points per game in their own building.

One area where the Magic have been particularly stingy is from beyond the arc. On the year, they are 4th in three-point shooting percentage allowed at 35.2%. Over their last five games, that number has dropped to just 27.9%.

Overall, opponents have scored less than their season average in 75.6% of games vs. the Magic. In terms of made threes, opponents have made fewer than their season average in 69.5% of games.