Atlanta Falcons vs Washington Commanders Betting Pick & Prediction 12/29/24
On Sunday, December 29th, the Falcons and Commanders will face off at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Commanders are favored at -204 on the money line in this week 17 NFC matchup. The Falcons’ money line odds are +171, and the Commanders are -4 point favorites on the point spread. The game is being played at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD, and the over/under line is set at 47 points.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +4
This game will be played at Northwest Stadium at 8:20 ET on Sunday, December 29th.
WHY BET THE ATLANTA FALCONS:
- We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 31 to 23
- Not only do we have the Falcons winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +4
- Look for this game to go over the line of 47 points
Will The Falcons Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Atlanta’s 34-7 win over the Giants in week 16 put them back above .500 at 8-7 and extended their winning streak to two games. The Falcons are now 4-1 in the NFC South, giving them a slight edge over the Saints for first place. Our projections give them a 48.3% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs.
Heading into week 17, Atlanta ranks 21st in our NFL power rankings. They have an average scoring margin of -1.5 points per game and are 6-8-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 5-10, with the under hitting in two straight games.
Heading into week 17, the Falcons rank 15th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 19th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 21.8 points per game. Atlanta is 9th in the league in total yards per game (360.9), with 236.5 passing yards per game (6th) on 32.4 attempts per game. On the ground, they average 124.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 12th in the NFL, on 28.9 attempts per game.
In week 16, the Falcons scored 34 points in their win over the Giants, with 17 points in the 2nd quarter and 14 in the 3rd. Michael Penix Jr. threw for 202 yards (18/27), while Bijan Robinson rushed for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries. Darnell Mooney led the team with 5 catches for 82 yards.
Atlanta’s defense was dominant in their 34-7 win over the Giants, allowing just 45 rushing yards on 13 attempts and forcing two interceptions. The Falcons held the Giants to 234 total yards and limited them to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down. Despite giving up a late touchdown, Atlanta’s defense held the Giants to just 189 passing yards and kept them out of the endzone for most of the game.
They also recorded three sacks and held the Giants to a 56.4% completion rate on their passes. Additionally, Atlanta won the quarterback hit differential with a +4, even though they lost the tackles for loss differential.
Are The Commanders Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Washington heads into week 17 on a three-game winning streak, including a 36-33 win over the Eagles in week 16. The Commanders were 4-point underdogs but managed to pull off the victory, bringing their record to 10-5. They currently sit 2nd in the NFC East and 7th in the conference, with a 93.6% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.
Washington has an average scoring margin of +5.6 points per game and is 9-5-1 against the spread. Their O/U record is 10-5, with their games averaging 52 points compared to an average line of 46.1.
Heading into week 17, the Commanders sit 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28.8 points per game, which ranks 4th in the NFL. They are 5th in the league in total yards per game (373.5) and 16th in passing yards per game (220.9), despite ranking 20th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 152.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 3rd, on 31.5 attempts per game. Washington has been strong on 3rd down, converting 45.5% of their attempts, and they rank 2nd in red zone attempts, although they are 28th in red zone conversion percentage.
Jayden Daniels threw for 258 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 16, with 2 interceptions, in a 36-33 win over the Eagles. He connected with Olamide Zaccheaus 5 times for 70 yards and 2 touchdowns, and added 81 rushing yards on 9 carries. Washington scored 22 points in the 4th quarter, converting 3 of 4 red zone attempts and 7 of 13 3rd downs.
In their 36-33 win over the Eagles, Washington’s defense allowed just 127 passing yards on 15 completions. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 211 yards on 39 attempts. Despite this, they held Philadelphia to an 18.8% third-down conversion rate and recorded four sacks. The Eagles averaged 5.4 yards per attempt on the ground.
Washington’s defense also picked off one pass and limited the Eagles to a 53.6% completion percentage. On the defensive front, they won the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials in the game.