Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick & Prediction 10/27/24

The Falcons are favored on the road as they take on the Buccaneers at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 27th at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL. The Falcons’ money line odds are -140, while the Buccaneers are at +118. The game is being televised on FOX, and the Falcons are -2.5 point favorites, with the over/under line set at 46 points.

ATLANTA FALCONS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5

This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium at 1:00 ET on Sunday, October 27th.

WHY BET THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:

  • We have the Falcons winning this one by a score of 22 to 21
  • Even though we like the Falcons to win, our ATS pick is to take the Buccaneers at +2.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 46 points

Will The Falcons Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Atlanta heads into week 8 with a 4-3 record, putting them 1st in the NFC South. They are 3-0 in division games and 4-1 in conference play. The Falcons have been better on the road (2-0) than at home (2-3) this season. Our projections give them a 56.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 44.7% chance of winning the division.

In week 7, the Falcons couldn’t capitalize on their home-field advantage, losing 34-14 to the Seahawks. They were favored by 3 points but couldn’t get the win, dropping their record to 4-3. Before that, Atlanta had won two straight, including a 38-20 road win over the Panthers in week 6 and a 36-30 home win over the Bucs in week 5.

Heading into week 8, the Falcons are 12th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 13th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.3, and are 7th in passing attempts per game (34.9), with Kirk Cousins throwing for 232 yards (24/35) in week 7. Atlanta ranks 19th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 38% success rate, but converted 8 of 15 in week 7 against Seattle.

In the run game, the Falcons are 22nd in rushing attempts and 16th in rushing yards, averaging 119.6 yards per game. Bijan Robinson rushed for 103 yards on 21 carries in week 7. Before that, Tyler Allgeier had 105 yards in week 6, and Robinson had 61 yards in week 5.

In their 34-14 loss to the Seahawks, the Falcons’ defense allowed 236 passing yards and 103 rushing yards on 26 attempts. They gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed Seattle to complete 65.5% of their passes. On third downs, the Falcons allowed the Seahawks to convert 36.4% of their chances.

Atlanta’s defense managed just one sack in the game and lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials, both by a margin of -3. The Falcons will look to tighten up defensively in their next game after allowing 339 total yards to the Seahawks.

Will The Buccaneers Win At Home Over The Falcons?

Heading into week 8, the Buccaneers have a 65.5% chance of making the playoffs and a 51.4% chance of winning the NFC South. They rank 10th in our NFL power rankings. Tampa Bay is 4-3 overall and 4-1 in conference play, which puts them 2nd in the division. They are 2-2 at home and 2-1 on the road.

Against the spread, the Bucs are 4-3, with a +3.9 average scoring margin. Their O/U record is 5-2, with the over hitting in 4 straight games. Their games have averaged 55.9 points, with an average O/U line of 44.9.

Heading into week 8, the Buccaneers are 5th in our offensive power rankings. They rank 3rd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 29.9, and are 5th in yards per game with 383.4. Tampa Bay leads the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 50.6% of their attempts. They are 9th in passing attempts and 7th in passing yards per game, averaging 248.3 yards. On the ground, they rank 18th in rushing attempts and 8th in rushing yards per game, with 135.1.

In week 7, Baker Mayfield threw for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns, completing 31 of 45 passes against the Ravens. Cade Otton led the team with 8 catches for 100 yards, and Rachaad White had 40 rushing yards on 10 carries. The Bucs scored 21 points in the 4th quarter and converted 11 of 17 3rd-down attempts. Chris Godwin, who had 125 receiving yards in week 6 and 64 yards in week 7, is out for the season with a dislocated ankle. Mike Evans is questionable for week 8 with a hamstring injury.

In their 41-31 loss to the Ravens, the Buccaneers’ defense struggled to defend the pass, giving up five passing touchdowns and allowing Baltimore to complete 77.3% of their passes for 264 yards. Tampa Bay’s defense was also gashed in the running game, giving up 244 yards on the ground, with the Ravens averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite this, the Buccaneers’ defense did force the Ravens to convert on just 37.5% of their third down attempts.

Tampa Bay’s defense managed two sacks in the game and won the tackles for loss battle by one, but they still allowed the Ravens to put up 508 yards of total offense. The Buccaneers will need to make significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball moving forward.