Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Liberty Flames Betting Pick & Prediction 11/23/24
ESPN+ will be covering this week 13 college football matchup between the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and the Liberty Flames. Kick-off is set for 1:00 ET at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA. The Hilltoppers are coming in with a 7-3 record, while the Flames are 7-2. The over/under is at 57.5 points, and the Hilltoppers are the slight -1 point road favorites.
WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS VS LIBERTY FLAMES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -1
This game will be played at Williams Stadium (VA) at 1:00 ET on Saturday, November 23rd.
WHY BET THE WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS:
- We have the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers winning this one by a score of 32 to 28
- Not only do we have the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1
- Look for this game to go over the line of 57.5 points
Will The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Western Kentucky enters Week 13 against Liberty with a 7-3 record, and they are 100% bowl-eligible. They have a 3-2 road record and a 2-1 mark at home. The Hilltoppers have been favored in four games this season, going 3-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +6.9 points per game.
Against the spread, Western Kentucky is 5-3, with a 3-2 record on the road and 2-1 at home. They are 2-2 ATS as the favorite and 3-1 as the underdog. The Hilltoppers’ games have an over/under record of 4-4, with an average line of 54.9 points.
This week’s over/under line is set at 57.5 points. Western Kentucky has played six games with lower totals and two with higher lines. Their games average 49.1 points, with an average over/under margin of -3.0 points.
Heading into week 13, Western Kentucky’s offense ranks 50th in points scored, averaging 28 per game. They are 61st in our offensive power rankings. The Hilltoppers focus on their passing game, ranking 29th in both passing yards (267.9 per game) and completions (21.7 per game). They are 39th in passing attempts. Their third-down conversion rate is 42.1%.
Quarterback Caden Veltkamp has thrown for 2,102 yards and has a passer rating of 111. He has completed 69.9% of his passes, with 19 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. On the ground, Western Kentucky averages 123.7 rushing yards per game. Elijah Young leads the team with 587 rushing yards. Kisean Johnson has 685 receiving yards and five touchdowns.
Western Kentucky’s defense has allowed an average of 21.1 points per game this season, ranking 30th nationally. They’ve given up 187 passing yards per game, which is 37th in the country, and quarterbacks have a passer rating of 83 against them, completing 60.9% of their throws.
In their recent game, a 12-7 loss to Louisiana Tech, the defense allowed 12 points. They gave up 279 total yards, including 213 rushing yards on 47 attempts, but held Louisiana Tech to just 66 passing yards.
Will The Liberty Flames Win At Home Over The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?
Liberty enters Week 13 with a 7-2 record, and they are 2-1 at home this season. They have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible, but their odds of winning Conference USA stand at 5.6%. The Flames are ranked 103rd in our power rankings heading into their matchup against Western Kentucky.
Liberty has been favored in five of their nine games, going 4-1 as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +7.4 points per game, and they are 2-3 against the spread this season.
This week’s over/under line is 57.5 points. Liberty’s average over/under line is 56.1 points, and their over/under record is 1-3-1, with their games averaging 55.2 points.
Liberty’s offense has leaned heavily on their running game, ranking 10th nationally with 226.7 rushing yards per game. They are 19th in rushing attempts, averaging 39.9 per game. Quinton Cooley is the team’s leading rusher, with 998 yards, 11 touchdowns, and an average of 6 yards per carry. Liberty is 13th in third-down conversion percentage, converting 47.4% of their attempts.
Overall, Liberty is 49th in scoring, with 28.2 points per game, and they are ranked 78th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. Quarterback Kaidon Salter has thrown for 1,695 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, with a passer rating of 97. Liberty ranks 118th in passing yards per game.
Liberty’s defense has allowed an average of 21.5 points per game this season, ranking 32nd nationally. In their recent game against UMass, they gave up 34 points, including four rushing touchdowns, while allowing 263 rushing yards and 163 passing yards.
Opponents have averaged 160 rushing yards per game against Liberty, with quarterbacks posting a 90.4 passer rating and averaging 195 passing yards per game. Liberty’s defense has faced the 23rd fewest pass attempts in the country this season.