At 4:10 PM ET, the Washington Nationals will take on the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. This National League matchup will be televised on BSOH.

Frankie Montas will be on the mound for the Reds, and he will be opposed by Josiah Gray for the Nationals. The over/under line is set at 9 runs, with the over paying out at -101 and the under at -120.


The Pick: Cincinnati Reds Moneyline -153

This game will be played at Great American Ball Park at 4:10 ET on Thursday, March 28th.


  • We have the Reds winning by a score of 6 to 4
  • If you're looking for a run line pick, we also like the Reds to cover
  • As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 10 runs and like the over

Nationals Records & Stats

Coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs, the Nationals will look to improve on their 71-91 record from last year. In the National League, Washington finished in 14th place and 5th in the NL East. Their overall series record was 20-29-3.

When playing at home, the Nationals went 34-47 last season compared to their 37-44 road record. In night games, Washington was 36-59 but had a winning record of 35-32 in day games. As underdogs, the Nationals went 62-88 last season.

The Nationals finished last season with a run line record of 86-76, including a mark of 51-30 on the road. Their average scoring margin was -0.9 runs per game, and they were the underdog in 92.6% of their games. In those games, they went 82-68 vs. the run line, compared to 4-8 as the favorite. Washington's scoring differential was -0.7 runs per game on the road, compared to -1.1 runs per game at home.

When looking at the Nationals' over/under record from last season, they finished with a record of 78-79. On average, their games had an over/under line of 9 runs, and their games averaged a combined 9.5 runs per game. Last season, 37.7% of their games had lower over/under lines than 9 runs, and when their games did have an over/under line of 9 runs, the over/under record was 20-22-2. Overall, 44.4% of their games finished with fewer than 9 runs.

Coming off a season in which he made 30 appearances and 30 starts, Josiah Gray finished with a record of 8-13 and an ERA of 3.91. His WHIP for the season was 1.46, and he allowed a batting average of .242. Gray's FIP for the season was 4.93, and he finished the season with 11 quality starts. For the season, Gray averaged 8.09 strikeouts per nine innings and 4.53 walks per nine innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio for the season was 1.8.

Washington's offense was middle of the pack last season, averaging 4.3 runs per game, which ranked 20th in the league. They were 24th in home runs with 151 and 21st in RBI. The Nationals' batting average of .254 was 9th in the league, but they were 2nd in fewest strikeouts. On the road, they hit just .237 compared to .261 at home.

The Nationals' top returning home run hitter from last season is Lane Thomas. He finished the year with a batting average of .268 and hit 28 home runs. Thomas also drove in 86 runs. CJ Abrams is the second-leading returning home run hitter. Last season, he hit 18 home runs and finished with a slugging percentage of .412. Joey Gallo is the team's top offseason addition. Last season, he hit 21 home runs and finished with a slugging percentage of .440 while playing for the Twins.

Reds Records & Stats

Despite finishing with a winning record, the Reds missed out on the playoffs last season. Cincinnati's overall record was 82-80, which put them in 8th place in the National League and 3rd in the NL Central. Their series record was 22-22-7, and they went 21-31 against division opponents.

At home, the Reds were 38-43 last season, while they went 44-37 on the road. In night games, Cincinnati went 54-45 compared to 28-35 in day games. As the favorite, the Reds went 24-20, and they were 58-60 as the underdog.

When favored, Cincinnati went 15-15 at home and 23-28 as the home underdog. Tonight, the Reds are favored at -153 on the money line, and last year's team went 24-20 when favored.

Last season, the Cincinnati Reds had an average run differential of -.2 runs per game. They finished the season with a run line record of 96-66. At home, their run line record was 45-36 compared to 51-30 on the road. In games that they covered the run line, their average scoring margin was +2.2 runs per game compared to -3.8 runs per game in games that they did not cover the run line. Last season, they were the underdog in 72.8% of their games, going 79-39 vs. the run line.

On average, Cincinnati's games had an over/under line of 9.4 runs last season, and their O/U record was 79-82. Their games averaged a combined 9.9 runs per contest, and 57.4% of their games had higher O/U lines than today's 9-run line. When their games did have an O/U line of 9 runs, the over/under record was 11-9.

Frankie Montas is coming off an appearance in which he went 1-0 with an ERA of 0.00. In terms of batting average allowed, Montas gave up a .286 average, while his WHIP was 2.25. For the season, Montas has made one appearance and has yet to record a quality start. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 1.0, and he is averaging 6.75 walks per game. Montas' slugging percentage allowed is .429, and his FIP allowed is 4.00.

The Reds' offense was one of the most consistent in the league last season, averaging 4.8 runs per game (9th). They were especially strong on the road, where they averaged 5.0 runs per game (6th). Overall, Cincinnati was 11th in batting average (.249) and 8th in walks. Their power numbers were also solid, as they finished the season with the 13th most home runs in the league (198) and were 8th in isolated power (.171).

Spencer Steer is the top returning home run hitter for the Reds after hitting 23 home runs last season. He finished the year with a batting average of .271 and a slugging percentage of .464. TJ Friedl hit 18 home runs last season and batted .279. Jeimer Candelario is a new addition to the team after hitting 22 home runs and batting .251 for the Cubs last season.