Washington Commanders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/8/24

Washington is +147 on the money line as they face the Buccaneers at 4:25 ET on Sunday, September 8th. The Buccaneers are the favorite on the money line at -175 and are -3.5 point favorites on the point spread. This week one matchup is being televised on FOX, and the over/under line is set at 43.5 points.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.5

This game will be played at Raymond James Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, September 8th.

WHY BET THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS:

• We have the Buccaneers winning this one by a score of 21 to 17
• Not only do we have the Buccaneers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -3.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 43.5 points

Will The Commanders Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Washington’s struggles at home contributed to their tough season, as they went 1-7 at home and 3-10 as the underdog. The Commanders managed just four wins, going 4-13 overall, and all four of their wins came against below .500 teams. They were winless within their division, going 0-6 in the NFC East and struggled against above .500 teams, going 0-9. On the road, they were 6-3 vs. the spread, but at home, they were 0-7-1 vs. the spread.

The Commanders’ over/under record was 10-7, with their games averaging a combined 49.8 points per game, the 5th highest in the league. Against the spread, Washington went 6-10-1 overall. They were 2-3 in non-conference games and managed two wins against above .500 teams.

Washington’s offense was forced to throw the ball a lot last season, as they ranked 2nd in passing attempts per game. Despite this, they were only 19th in passing yards per game, averaging 219.1 yards. The Commanders finished the season with 93.6 rushing yards per game, ranking 26th in the league. In terms of scoring, they averaged 19.4 points per game, placing them 25th in the NFL. At home, they struggled, scoring only 16 points per game, which was 29th in the league, while on the road, they scored 22.3 points per game, ranking 12th.

Overall, Washington averaged 312.8 yards per game, which was 24th in the league. Their struggles on third down were evident, as they converted only 35.6% of their third down attempts. Additionally, they were 23rd in the league in offensive power rankings last season.

Washington’s defense really struggled last season, giving up 30.5 points per game, the worst in the NFL. They also allowed the most yards per game, with an average of 388.9, and the most passing yards per game, at 262.2. Their inability to pressure the quarterback was a big issue, as they were near the bottom of the league in both sacks and quarterback hits.

Opposing quarterbacks had a collective passer rating of 104.49 against Washington, which was dead last in the league. Offenses were able to move the ball at will, as the Commanders forced the 2nd most passing attempts against them.

Are The Buccaneers Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

Washington didn’t win a single game within their division last year, going 0-6 in the NFC East. They finished the 2023 season with a disappointing 4-13 record, placing them 14th in the NFC and 4th in the NFC East. Against below .500 teams, they were 4-4, but winless (0-9) against teams with above .500 records. The Commanders’ over/under record was 10-7, with their games averaging 49.8 points per game.

On the road, Washington went 3-6, but they really struggled at home with a 1-7 record. As underdogs, they went 3-10 ATS, and as favorites, they were 1-3. Their ATS record for the season was 6-10-1, with a 6-3 mark on the road and 0-7-1 at home.

Washington’s offense ranked 23rd in the league last season, averaging 19.4 points per game, which placed them 25th in the NFL. They struggled to run the ball, finishing with the fewest rushing attempts per game at 21.1 and the 6th best rushing yards per attempt (4.5). In the passing game, the Commanders were 2nd in the league in passing attempts per game, but they were only 19th in passing yards per game, averaging 219.1 yards.

Overall, Washington averaged 312.8 yards per game, with a tough time in the red zone, converting only 20.4% of their red zone opportunities. On third downs, they converted 35.6% of their chances.

Washington’s defense was near the bottom in most categories last season, giving up a league-worst 30.5 points per game. Their defense allowed a collective passer rating of 104.49, which also ranked last in the NFL. They struggled to get to the quarterback, as their sack numbers were 16th, and they gave up the most passing yards per game, at 262.2.

Opposing offenses consistently moved the ball against Washington, as they also ranked last in yards allowed, giving up an average of 388.9 yards per game. Their inability to get off the field on third downs hurt them, as they allowed a 41.6% conversion rate on third downs.