Washington Commanders vs Detroit Lions Betting Pick & Prediction 1/18/25
The Lions are heavily favored in their NFC matchup against the Commanders, with a money line of -543. This divisional round game, set for 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Ford Field in Detroit, is being televised on FOX. The Commanders’ money line odds are +407, and the Lions are -9.5 point favorites with an over/under line of 55 points.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS VS DETROIT LIONS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Washington Commanders +9.5
This game will be played at Ford Field at 8:00 ET on Saturday, January 18th.
WHY BET THE WASHINGTON COMMANDERS:
- We have the Lions winning this one by a score of 31 to 25
- Even though we like the Lions to win, our ATS pick is to take the Commanders at +9.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 55 points
Will The Commanders Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Washington finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, putting them 6th in the NFC and 2nd in the NFC East. They ended the season on a five-game winning streak, including a 30-24 win over the Falcons in week 17 and a 23-19 win over the Cowboys in week 18. However, they couldn’t extend their streak to six games, losing 37-20 to the Buccaneers in the Wild Card round.
Heading into the playoffs, the Commanders ranked 10th in our power rankings. They had an average scoring margin of +5.4 and were 11-6-1 against the spread. Their O/U record was 11-7, with an average of 51.1 points in their games.
Jayden Daniels returned to the starting lineup in the Wild Card round after Marcus Mariota started in week 18. Daniels threw for 268 yards and 2 touchdowns on 24/35 passing, posting a passer rating of 110. He was sacked just once after being sacked 5 times in week 17. Daniels’ top target was Dyami Brown, who had 5 catches for 89 yards and a touchdown.
Washington ranks 5th in our offensive power rankings and is averaging 28.2 points per game, which is 5th in the NFL. They have been strong on the ground, ranking 4th in rushing attempts and 3rd in rushing yards per game with 150.1. On 3rd down, they convert 45.6% of the time, which ranks 6th in the league.
In their 23-20 win over the Buccaneers, the Washington Commanders’ defense allowed just 183 passing yards on 15 completions, but two of those completions were for touchdowns. Tampa Bay managed just 284 total yards, and Washington defended the run well, giving up only 101 yards on 25 attempts. Opposing quarterbacks completed 83.3% of their passes against Washington in their most recent game.
On third downs, Washington allowed the Buccaneers to convert 55.6% of their chances. The Commanders’ defense recorded one sack but lost the tackles for loss battle by a margin of -2.
Are The Lions Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
The Lions finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, putting them atop our power rankings heading into the playoffs. Detroit went 6-0 in the NFC North and 11-1 in conference play, including a 40-34 road win over the 49ers in week 17. They followed that up with a 31-9 victory over the Vikings in week 18, easily covering the 3-point spread. This was their third straight win against the spread, giving them a 12-4-1 ATS record this season.
In the O/U column, the Lions are 9-7-1, with their games averaging 53.3 points. The O/U line in their matchups has been 50.5 on average. In week 18, they and the Vikings combined for 40 points, falling well short of the 56.5-point line.
Jared Goff has been solid for the Lions, throwing for 231 yards in week 18, with 27 completions on 33 attempts, though he did have 2 interceptions after going without one in weeks 16 and 17. He had a passer rating of 80 in week 18, following a 132 rating in week 17 and a 136 in week 16. Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 139 yards on 23 carries and scored 3 touchdowns in week 18, while Amon-Ra St. Brown led the team with 6 catches for 77 yards.
Detroit’s offense is currently ranked 2nd in our power rankings, and they lead the NFL in scoring with 33.2 points per game. They are 2nd in passing yards per game (263.2) and 5th in rushing yards (146.4). The Lions are converting 47.6% of their 3rd downs, which ranks 4th in the league.
The Lions’ defense was dominant in their 31-9 win over the Vikings, holding Minnesota to just 142 passing yards on 43.9% completions. Detroit’s secondary didn’t allow a passing touchdown and limited the Vikings to a 3.5 yards per attempt average. They also excelled on third downs, allowing only a 23.1% conversion rate.
Despite giving up 120 rushing yards on just 19 attempts, the Lions were able to keep the Vikings out of the endzone and held them to only 262 total yards.