Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 1/18/25

The Texans are +364 on the money line, as they get set to take on the Chiefs at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are the heavy favorite at -472 on the money line. ABC is handling the television coverage of this AFC matchup, with the Chiefs favored by -8 points and the over/under line set at 41.5 points.

HOUSTON TEXANS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Houston Texans +8

This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 4:30 ET on Saturday, January 18th.

WHY BET THE HOUSTON TEXANS:

• We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 23 to 20
• Even though we like the Chiefs to win, our ATS pick is to take the Texans at +8
• Look for this game to go over the line of 41.5 points

Will The Texans Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs

Houston finished the regular season 10-7, which was good enough to win the AFC South. They went 5-1 in the division and 9-4 in conference play, putting them 4th in the AFC standings. The Texans ranked 16th in our power rankings heading into the playoffs.

Houston was a 2.5-point underdog in the Wild Card round but took care of the Chargers 32-12. The O/U line was 41.5, and the teams combined for 44 points. The Texans are 8-9-1 against the spread this season, with a +1.1 scoring margin.

Heading into the divisional round, the Texans rank 20th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 15th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.4, and 18th in yards per game with 325.8. Houston ranks 9th in passing attempts but 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 210.4. On the ground, they are 21st in rushing attempts and 14th in rushing yards per game, with 115.4. The Texans are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, converting 37.7% of their attempts, and they rank 15th in red zone conversion percentage.

In the wild card round, C.J. Stroud threw for 282 yards, completing 22 of 33 passes with one touchdown and one interception. He was sacked three times. Joe Mixon led the rushing attack with 106 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries, while Nico Collins had 7 receptions for 122 yards and a touchdown. The Texans scored 12 points in the 4th quarter against the Chargers after being shut out in the 3rd.

The Texans’ defense was dominant in their 32-12 win over the Chargers, coming up with four interceptions and allowing just 211 passing yards. They held the Chargers to a 43.8% completion rate and limited them to 12 points. Houston’s run defense was also tough, allowing only 50 yards on 18 attempts.

On third downs, the Texans allowed the Chargers to convert just 27.3% of their chances. Even though the Chargers had 261 total yards, Houston’s defense made key plays throughout the game, including four sacks and winning the quarterback hit battle by four.

Are The Chiefs Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?

The Chiefs finished the regular season with a 15-2 record, putting them first in the AFC. They went 5-1 in division play and 10-2 against the conference. Kansas City was 8-0 at home and 7-2 on the road. Heading into the playoffs, they rank 6th in our power rankings.

Against the spread, the Chiefs were 7-9-1, with an average scoring margin of +3.5 points. Their O/U record was 7-10, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games averaged 41.8 points, compared to an average line of 44.

Heading into the divisional round, the Chiefs rank 14th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 22.6, and are 16th in yards per game with 327.6. They lean heavily on the passing game, ranking 6th in passing attempts and 13th in passing yards per game. On the ground, they rank 22nd in rushing yards per game. One area where they have excelled is on 3rd down, where they rank 2nd in the league with a 48.5% conversion rate.

In week 18, the Chiefs were shut out by the Broncos, managing just 98 passing yards and 27 rushing yards. Carson Wentz went 10/17 with a passer rating of 75 and was sacked 4 times. Nikko Remigio led the team with 48 receiving yards on 2 catches, while Carson Steele had 25 rushing yards on 8 carries.

In their 38-0 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs’ defense allowed 479 yards and struggled to get off the field, as the Broncos converted on 71.4% of their third down attempts. The Chiefs gave up 321 yards through the air, with Denver completing 89.7% of their passes for four touchdowns. Additionally, the Chiefs failed to record a sack and allowed 158 rushing yards on 43 attempts.