UNLV Rebels vs Houston Cougars Betting Pick & Prediction 8/31/24

UNLV and Houston are set to kick off their seasons in a week one non-conference matchup at TDECU Stadium in Houston. The game is scheduled for 7:00 ET on Saturday, August 31st, with FS1 handling the broadcast. Houston is the -2.5 point favorite at home, and the over/under line is currently 54.5 points. The money line odds are +108 for UNLV and -134 for Houston.

UNLV REBELS VS HOUSTON COUGARS BETTING PICK

The Pick: UNLV Rebels +2.5

This game will be played at TDECU Stadium at 7:00 ET on Saturday, August 31st.

WHY BET THE UNLV REBELS:

• We have the UNLV Rebels winning this one by a score of 27 to 25
• Not only do we have the UNLV Rebels winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
• We see this game finishing below the line of 54.5 points

Will The UNLV Rebels Pick Up A Win On The Road?

Last season, the UNLV Rebels were 4-3 when favored and 5-2 as the underdog, finishing with a 9-5 overall record. They were strong on the road, going 4-2, and enter this season with a 52.5% chance of being bowl-eligible, according to our pre-season power rankings, which place them 86th in the nation.

Heading into the season, the Rebels have a 6.3% chance of winning the Mountain West title. In the futures market, they are at +540 to win the conference and +160 to make it to the Mountain West Championship game, giving them the 3rd best odds in the conference.

UNLV’s offense was one of the most efficient units on third down last season, converting 49% of their opportunities, which ranked 6th in the country. The Rebels also ranked 13th in scoring, putting up 34.4 points per game. They were a run-heavy offense, averaging 173.9 rushing yards per game, which was 30th in the nation, and 239.1 passing yards per game. Their average of 38.1 rushing attempts per game was the 13th highest figure in college football last season.

Jai’Den Thomas, who rushed for 503 yards and 12 touchdowns last season, is the top returning running back for the Rebels. In the passing game, UNLV brought in quarterback Matthew Sluka from Holy Cross, who threw for 286 yards and two touchdowns last season. The Rebels are also looking to make an impact with the addition of transfer Michael Allen from NC State in the backfield.

UNLV’s defense struggled last season, allowing 28.6 points per game. They were particularly weak against the run, giving up 164.4 rushing yards per game, which ranked 114th in the nation. In the passing game, the Rebels allowed 253.7 yards per game, ranking 148th. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 91.1 and completed 61.2% of their passes against UNLV.

Will The Houston Cougars Win At Home Over The UNLV Rebels?

Last season, Houston finished with a 4-8 overall record, going 3-4 at home and 1-4 on the road. They were the underdog in nine of their 12 games, going 3-6 as the less-favored team. Entering this season, Houston is ranked 78th in our pre-season power rankings, with a 22.3% chance of being bowl-eligible.

In the futures market, Houston is a +10700 long shot to win the Big 12, with a 0.3% chance according to our projections. Their implied odds to make it to the Big 12 Conference title game are 3%, with futures odds of +3750.

Donovan Smith, who threw for 2,800 yards and 22 touchdowns last season, returns as the top quarterback for the Houston Cougars. Smith finished the season with a passer rating of 90, but he also threw 13 interceptions. Houston’s passing game averaged 241.5 yards per game, ranking 65th in the country, while the team’s overall scoring average was 23.7 points per game (77th).

On the ground, the Cougars ranked 106th in rushing yards per game, with their top returning running back, Parker Jenkins, who rushed for 464 yards last season. Houston also added Zeon Chriss from Louisiana, who threw for 1,222 yards last season. In the receiving corps, Joseph Manjack IV, who had 577 yards receiving last season, returns, and the team added Devan Williams from Tulsa.

Opposing offenses found success on the ground against Houston last season, as the Cougars’ defense allowed 170.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 125th in the nation. Overall, Houston gave up 31.5 points per game, placing them 73rd in the country. Their pass defense was slightly better, but still finished 153rd in passing yards allowed. Quarterbacks completed 69.5% of their passes against Houston last year.