New Mexico Lobos vs Arizona Wildcats Betting Pick & Prediction 8/31/24
ESPN is covering the season opener between the Arizona Wildcats and the New Mexico Lobos, set for 10:30 ET on Saturday, August 31st, at Arizona Stadium in Tucson. Arizona is favored by -30.5 points, with the over/under line at 53.5 points. This is the first game of the season for both teams, and the money line odds stand at -10000 for Arizona and +3000 for New Mexico.
NEW MEXICO LOBOS VS ARIZONA WILDCATS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Arizona Wildcats -30.5
This game will be played at Arizona Stadium at 10:30 ET on Saturday, August 31st.
WHY BET THE ARIZONA WILDCATS:
- We have the Arizona Wildcats winning this one by a score of 45 to 12
- Not only do we have the Arizona Wildcats winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -30.5
- Look for this game to go over the line of 53.5 points
Will The New Mexico Lobos Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
Heading into the season, New Mexico is 117th in our power rankings, with a 25.9% chance of being bowl-eligible. Our projections give them just a 1.3% chance of winning the Mountain West. Last season, the Lobos finished with a 4-8 record, going 2-4 on the road and 2-4 at home. They were the underdog in 10 of their 12 games.
The futures market has New Mexico as a +27000 long shot to win the Mountain West, placing them 12th out of 12 teams. Their odds to make it to the Mountain West Conference title game are +9000, giving them a 1% chance, which aligns with our projections.
Devon Dampier, who threw for 525 yards and six touchdowns last season, is the top returning quarterback for the New Mexico Lobos. Overall, the Lobos’ passing game averaged 217.9 yards per game, ranking 82nd in the country. Last season, New Mexico’s offense was more focused on the ground, where they ranked 8th in rushing yards per attempt and averaged 193.6 rushing yards per game (38th). The Lobos also ranked 58th in the nation in scoring, putting up 27.2 points per game.
Andrew Henry, who rushed for 326 yards last season, is the top returning running back for the Lobos. They have also added Eli Sanders, who ran for 477 yards at Iowa State. Caleb Medford, who caught two touchdowns and had 551 receiving yards last season, is the top returning wide receiver for New Mexico.
New Mexico’s defense struggled last season, allowing 35.1 points per game. They had a tough time stopping the run, giving up 176 rushing yards per game, which ranked 131st in the nation. In the passing game, the Lobos allowed 234.3 yards per game, placing them 111th in college football. Opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 112.3 while completing 61.4% of their passes against New Mexico.
Are The Arizona Wildcats Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Arizona is currently 24th in our power rankings, with an 86.4% chance of being bowl-eligible this season. Last year, the Wildcats finished with a 10-3 overall record, going 5-2 on the road and 5-1 at home. They were 4-2 as the underdog and 6-1 as the favorite. This season, they have an 11.5% chance of winning the Big 12, according to our projections.
In the futures market, the Wildcats are listed at +1200 to win the Big 12, giving them an 8% chance, which is 6th best in the conference. Their odds to make it to the Big 12 Championship game are +425, with an implied probability of 19%, placing them 7th in the conference.
Arizona’s offense was effective last season, averaging 34.6 points per game, thanks in part to their success on third down, where they converted 49.1% of their chances (5th in the country). The Wildcats also ranked 20th in passing yards per game, with Noah Fifita returning after throwing for 2,869 yards and 25 touchdowns last season. He finished with a passer rating of 115.8 and completed 72.4% of his passes. Arizona also ranked 9th in passing yards per game, averaging 308.3 yards per contest.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt joins the Wildcats’ backfield after rushing for 1,174 yards and 17 touchdowns last season at New Mexico. Arizona is also looking to Tetairoa McMillan, who finished with 1,402 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns last season, and added Reymello Murphy from Old Dominion to their receiving corps.
Arizona’s defense was effective against the run last season, holding opponents to just 118.5 rushing yards per game, which ranked 38th nationally. However, they struggled in the secondary, allowing 239.7 passing yards per game, placing them 122nd in the country. Overall, the Wildcats allowed 21.1 points per game, which was 25th best in college football last season.