Looking to win big? The Retrievers and Great Danes face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN+. The Great Danes are hosting the game at SEFCU Arena in Albany, NY. This America East conference matchup has an over/under of 170 points, and Albany is favored to win by -6.5 at home vs. UMBC.


The Pick: UMBC Retrievers +6.5

This game will be played at SEFCU Arena at 7:00 ET on Saturday, February 3rd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-69 in favor of the Great Danes.
  • Even though we have Albany winning straight-up, we like UMBC at +6.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 170 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.

Does UMBC Have A Chance at SEFCU Arena?

UMBC enters this game as a 6.5-point underdog, and they are 4-12 this season when listed as the underdog. The Retrievers are coming off a 99-95 loss to Bryant, and they have dropped three straight games, bringing their record to 6-16 overall.

UMBC has struggled on the road this season, going just 1-10 in 11 games. Over their last 10 games on the road, the Retrievers have gone 1-9, and their average scoring margin on the road is -9.8 points per game.

UMBC has been a solid team against the spread this season, going 11-10. As the underdog, they have a mark of 10-6 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Retrievers have gone 6-4 vs. the spread.

This season, the over/under record for UMBC games is 13-8. The average scoring total in their games this year is 160 points, while the average over/under line is 156.8. So far, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today's line of 170. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 and the average scoring total is 154 points.

UMBC's offense is coming off a good game, putting up 95 points vs. Bryant. Overall, they hit 52.2% of their shots from the field and went 13/21 from the free-throw line. Offensively, the Retrievers have a season long field goal percentage of 46%, which is 123rd in the nation. In terms of three-pointers, they are 92nd in percentage and 98th in three-pointers made.

Currently, the Retrievers' defense holds the 319th rank in the nation, allowing 82.1 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 7.5 threes per game vs. Albany. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 33.4%.

Will Albany Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?

Albany has been much better at home this season, going 5-2 compared to 5-9 on the road. Over their last 10 home games, the Great Danes have gone 8-2. They are also a perfect 7-0 when favored this season.

Albany is coming off a 22-point loss to Vermont, and they will be looking to avoid their third straight home loss. So far this season, they have an average scoring margin of +3.7 points per game at home.

Albany has gone 4-3 against the spread at home this season and is 6-1 vs. the spread as the favorite this year. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Great Danes have gone 7-3 vs. the spread.

Albany's over/under record for the season is 12-7-2, and the average scoring total in their games is 155.1. Today's over/under line of 170 is higher than the average OU line in their games this season (149.3). Their last three games have had an average scoring total of 152 points, and their over/under record in their last three games is 2-1.

Albany offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 59 points against Vermont. In that game, they made 7/28 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 35.4%. Coming into the game, the Great Danes offense has strugled with their outside shot this season, hitting threes at a rate of just 31%. On average, they get up 22.3 three-point attempts per game and are averaging 14.8 made free-throws.

Looking at the Albany defense, they will be looking for a better performance considering they are currently conceding 77.4 points per game (277th). So far, the Albany defense is giving up an average of 9.2 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 13.5 times per game (679th).