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When a Major League Baseball team scores 10 or more runs, they obviously expect to win. Going back to the 2004 season, we'd see that anytime a team reaches double digits in scoring, they're going to win 96 percent of their games. So, what happens to the 4 percent of the teams who manage to score 10 runs and still lose? They tend to be decent bets the following game, although as is usually the case, they fare better in some situations than they do in others.

All teams off a loss where they scored 10 or more runs have posted a 109-94 record for a profit of $2200 and an ROI of 9 percent. Underdogs have gone 49-62 for a modest $340 profit and an ROI of 3%. Home dogs were 20-22 for a profit of $145 and a 3.5 percent ROI, while away dogs went 29-40 for a $195 profit and a 2.8 percent ROI. Away underdogs greater than +140 were a solid 15-18 for a $725 profit and a 22 percent ROI, while home underdogs greater than +140 for were just 2-5 for a $205 loss, although interestingly, all seven of these games landed over the total.

Favorites were 56-27 after a high-scoring loss and showed a $2000 profit with an ROI of 16.3%, with home favorites going 42-20 for a $1460 profit and an ROI of 15.4 percent. Away favorites were 14-7 for a $540 profit and an ROI of 19.5%.

Home favorites of -150 or greater have posted a solid 22-5 record, good for a profit of $1,300 and an ROI of 25.5 percent, while away favorites in the same price range were 4-1 and showed an ROI of slightly more than 27 percent.

In 2017, there were 18 teams who scored at least 10 runs and lost and they bounced back with a 14-4 record their following game for a profit of $1,170 and an ROI of 50 percent. Favorites were 9-3, while underdogs went 5-1. After a somewhat slow start, these teams did win their final eight attempts of the year, and finished on an 11-1 run after starting 3-3.

So far in the 2018 season, we've seen eight teams who lost while scoring double digits and they've responded with a 5-3 record for a $205 profit and an ROI of 19%. Underdogs are just 1-2, with favorites going 4-1 so far. After starting 1-2, these teams have won four of their last five games, so it's definitely something to be on the lookout for as the season goes on.

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The Coors field altitude means runs galore. The 2018 Houston Astros did not lose any key pieces and their offense should be historically good. Betting without understanding the full picture is a quick route to an empty bank account. The Colorado Rockies home games have gone under in 15 of their 23 home games (65.2 percent). The Houston Astros are the MLB leaders in participating in games in which the under is a profitable bet (33-21-4, 61.1 percent). The MLB is a third of the way through the season and now is the time to identify sustainable run total under trends.

Key Stats of the MLB Leading Under Teams
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Rank</td>
<td>Team</td>
<td>Under %</td>
<td>Under Record</td>
<td>ERA Rank</td>
<td>Team xFIP</td>
<td>Runs Per Game</td>
<td>wOBA</td>
<td>BABIP</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1</td>
<td>Houston Astros</td>
<td>61.1</td>
<td>33-21-4</td>
<td>2.67 (1)</td>
<td>3.17 (1)</td>
<td>4.95 (1)</td>
<td>.325 (6)</td>
<td>.307 (4)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>Colorado Rockies</td>
<td>60.8</td>
<td>31-20-5</td>
<td>4.40 (22)</td>
<td>4.01 (12)</td>
<td>4.20 (20)</td>
<td>.310 (18)</td>
<td>.289 (22)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3</td>
<td>Milwaukee Brewers</td>
<td>60</td>
<td>29-20-5</td>
<td>3.47 (6)</td>
<td>4.02 (13)</td>
<td>4.30 (14)</td>
<td>.315 (13)</td>
<td>.299 (10)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>St. Louis Cardinals</td>
<td>59.2</td>
<td>29-20-5</td>
<td>3.58 (9)</td>
<td>4.11 (17)</td>
<td>4.39 (12)</td>
<td>.311 (17)</td>
<td>.291 (19)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>Washington Nationals</td>
<td>58.5</td>
<td>31-22-2</td>
<td>3.23 (2)</td>
<td>3.59 (3)</td>
<td>4.36 (13)</td>
<td>.317 (11)</td>
<td>.276 (28)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Colorado Rockies

The first step in analyzing the stats above is to isolate the Colorado Rockies. The four other teams are in the top ten in ERA which is a large contributor to the under trend. The Rockies are unique because of the perception of their home field.
Coors Field has always been a batters dream come true. In 2016 and 2017 the Rockies led the league in runs scored at home. In 2015 they were second in the MLB. That has coincided with a bottom two finish in home ERA each of those three years.
In 2018 the Rockies pitching staff is still performing poorly at home (29th in the league). However, the offense is not the same as it has been in previous years. In free agency, the Rockies opted to sign Wade Davis, acquire Bryan Shaw and retain Jake McGee to bolster the bullpen.

It has been well documented on the Bang the Book podcast that the Rockies offense has been unimpressive. It is a very top heavy lineup anchored by Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon. Games at Coors Field are going under 65.2 percent of the time. When the Rockies are on the road the under is cashing for bettors 57.1 percent of the time.

Examining the Rockies ERA to xfip discrepancy shows the Rockies pitching staff could pitch even better for the rest of the season. Xfip factors fly balls to a league average homerun ratio so playing at Coors field lessens the validity of the xfip discrepancy because flyballs will always convert to homeruns at a higher rate. However, with a young pitching staff I expect the runs allowed to decrease for the Rockies.

On the offensive side there is not a lot of room for growth. They just lost a commonly used clean-up hitter in OF David Dahl, who is out with a broken foot. The Rockies do get Utility player DJ LeMahieu back, but with Ian Desmond hitting well below league average this offense will still lack significant punch. I will be playing a majority of the Rockies games under the team total until the market adjusts or the Rockies offense shows improvement.

Houston Astros and Washington Nationals

Plain and simple the Astros and Nationals have two of the best pitching staffs in the MLB. There is no debate about this. The Houston Astros rotation was not expected to be this devastating, but their ability to prevent runs is the sole contributor to the run total under trend. I expect the market to adjust, but public bettors love playing overs and with an exciting lineup I find it hard to believe that money will stop flowing in for Astros games.

With some of the Astros pitching out of their minds it is possible this trend is less profitable over the rest of the season. With the Astros already leading the league in runs scored, the pitching staff is the main variable to keep an eye on. Until the regression hits, I will be looking to play unders for games with the Astros involved.

The Washington Nationals are a team I will be looking to take the over in very soon. The starting rotation is unbailable, but they have a lot of offensive weapons who should be returning soon. 2B Daniel Murphy should be returning next week, and 3B Ryan Zimmerman and OF Adam Eaton are nearing their rehab assignments.

If you add the returning stars with the incredibly unlucky .276 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), there is a strong possibility we see an over trend from the Nationals for the rest of the season.

Milwaukee Brewers and St. Louis Cardinals

There is not too much to break down with these teams. With regression signs in the ERA and xFip discrepancy there could be more runs allowed from both pitching staffs. Both teams also rank in the bottom half in BABIP so I also expect them to score more runs than they have. I will be staying away from both of these teams in terms of having a lean to a run total side based on the data.

To recap, I will be continuing to play Colorado and Houston unders. As for the Nationals there could be some great late season over run total value. The Brewers and Cardinals are teams to keep an eye on. Injuries or player development could contribute to creating value on either side, but for now I do not have a lean.

Examining MLB Run Total Under Trends

USC is the -9 point favorite as they host the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a week 12 matchup at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles. Kick-off is set for 4:00 ET, and the game will be broadcast on FOX. The over/under line is currently at 50.5 points. The Trojans come in with a 4-5 record, while the Cornhuskers are 5-4 on the season. The money line odds are +269 for Nebraska and -341 for USC.<h3>NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS VS USC TROJANS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: USC Trojans -9This game will be played at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum at 4:00 ET on Saturday, November 16th.<h3>WHY BET THE USC TROJANS:</h3><ul><li>We have the USC Trojans winning this one by a score of 31 to 18</li><li>Not only do we have the USC Trojans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -9</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 50.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Nebraska Cornhuskers Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs</h3>Nebraska enters Week 12 with a 5-4 record, facing USC on the road. They’ve gone 3-1 at home and 1-2 on the road this season. The Cornhuskers are ranked 54th in our CFB power rankings, and they have a 66.2% chance of becoming bowl-eligible.Nebraska has been favored in five of their nine games, with a 4-1 record as the favorite. Their average scoring margin is +4.4 points per game, and they’ve gone 4-2-1 against the spread this season.The over/under line for this week’s game is 50.5 points. Nebraska’s games have averaged 42.7 points, with an average over/under line of 45.9 points. Their over/under record is 2-5 this season.Nebraska’s offense ranks 71st in points per game, averaging 23.6, and they are 62nd in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. Dylan Raiola has thrown for 1,908 yards, completing 64.6% of his passes. The Cornhuskers are 45th in passing attempts and 38th in completions, averaging 227.8 passing yards per game, which is 71st nationally. Raiola has 10 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, with a passer rating of 85. On the ground, Nebraska is 104th in rushing yards, averaging 126 per game. Dante Dowdell leads the team with 471 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, averaging 4 yards per carry. Isaiah Neyor is the top receiver with 408 yards and five touchdowns on 25 catches.Nebraska's defense has been a strong point this season, ranking 16th nationally by allowing just 19.1 points per game. They’ve given up 105.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 18th in the country, on an average of 30 rushing attempts per game, the 21st fewest in the nation. Through the air, they’ve allowed 205.6 passing yards per game, with opposing quarterbacks completing 65.4% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 92.5. In their most recent game, a 27-20 loss to UCLA, Nebraska’s defense allowed 27 points and 420 total yards. UCLA ran the ball 37 times for 216 yards, while Nebraska’s secondary gave up 204 passing yards and two touchdowns, but also came away with two interceptions.<h3>Are The USC Trojans Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?</h3>USC enters Week 12 with a 4-5 record, ranked 18th in our power rankings. They have a 71.1% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Trojans are 4-0 at home but 0-4 on the road this season. USC's ATS record is 4-4, with a perfect 4-0 mark at home and 0-4 on the road. They’ve been favored in seven of their nine games, going 3-4 against the spread as the favorite. Their over/under record stands at 3-4-1, with an average line of 54.8 points. USC games have averaged 52.8 points, and this week’s line is set at 50.5 points.USC’s offense is averaging 30.6 points per game, ranking 39th in the nation, but they are 15th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 12. They are 13th in passing attempts, averaging 41.6 per game, and 9th in completions, with 26.8 per game. They are also converting 46.9% of their third downs and averaging 291.2 passing yards per game. Miller Moss has thrown for 2,555 yards, completing 64.4% of his passes, with 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 91. Woody Marks leads the rushing attack with 878 yards and 9 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Makai Lemon has 448 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns this season.USC's defense has allowed 22.2 points per game this season, ranking 36th nationally. Against Washington, they gave up 26 points but limited the Huskies to 193 total yards, including just 74 rushing yards on 33 attempts and 119 passing yards. USC also forced an interception in the game. Opponents have averaged 135.3 rushing yards per game on 31 attempts against USC, while quarterbacks have posted a 66.6% completion rate and 237.8 passing yards per game, ranking USC 117th in the nation for passing yards allowed.

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs USC Trojans Betting Pick & Prediction 11/16/24

After four successful cards at Fight Island, the UFC returns home to Las Vegas and the APEX facility for UFC on ESPN+ 31. The main event will feature Derek Brunson and Edmen Shahbazyan to finish off a card with 11 fights.

Fighters from the United States did not fare well in Abu Dhabi for one reason or another, but the fact that they will be back on American soil could serve them well this weekend. This fight card is set to start at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday August 1 and you’ll need ESPN+ to see the main portion of the event.

We’ll take a look at odds from <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline">BetOnline Sportsbook</a> and break down all 11 matches on the card, including some extra detail on the five main card bouts.

Action starts in the bantamweight division with -320 favorite Chris Gutierrez against UFC newcomer Cody Durden. Not to be confused with Tyler Durden of fictional Fight Club fame, Cody Durden is the last-minute replacement for Luke Sanders. He last fought on July 18 with a first-round knockout in NFC, so this is an extremely quick turnaround on short notice for the 11-2 fighter. Gutierrez is 3-1 in his official UFC fights after losing to Raoni Barcelos at the TUF 28 Finale. He should move to 4-1 here as Durden skips several levels of competition to get to UFC.

Timur Valiev is another UFC newcomer as he gets set to face Jamall Emmers. Valiev, however, is -170 for his fight. The former WSOF fighter actually has just two losses to his name and one of them was to Gutierrez. He’s won six in a row and is getting quite a bit of respect in the odds here, even though Emmers is the taller fighter. Emmers lost his UFC debut back at UFC 248 right before the shutdown. Valiev lost his debut fight over a decade ago and then had that split-decision loss to Gutierrez. Maybe the 30-year-old does indeed make a good first impression here.

Two names that are a lot more familiar to UFC fans are Eric Spicely and Markus Perez. They’ll meet at 185 pounds here. Spicely’s return to UFC did not go well with a loss to Deron Winn back on June 22 of last year. He had won twice in CES to get back, but it looked like the same old Spicely in his return. Perez is just 2-3 in UFC since joining the promotion. He is -200 to even up his record in a battle of fringy UFC guys. Spicely might need this fight to salvage another contract down the line.

Ray Borg is a -235 favorite against Nate Maness, even though the underdog has a six-inch height advantage and a big reach advantage as well. Maness is making his UFC debut with a major step up in class and the 29-year-old draws Borg’s strong ground game. Borg has lost three of his last five fights, but he’s lost to Demetrious Johnson, Casey Kenney, and Ricky Simon. Maness isn’t on that level. This looks like a match to get Borg back in the win column.

Let’s see if the career renaissance continues for Ed Herman. Herman lost three fights in a row and five of seven before winning his two most recent contests against Patrick Cummins and Khadis Ibragimov. He is +145 to make it three in a row when he takes on Gerald Meerschaert. This is a quick return for Meerschaert, who was knocked out by Ian Heinisch just under two months ago. This is actually his third fight of 2020 already, which is rather amazing given that there has been a global pandemic. Meerschaert has lost four of six, but finds himself at -170 here. That seems to say a lot about Herman, no?

The last fight on the prelim card brings us Frankie Saenz and Jonathan Martinez. Saenz is fighting for the first time in over 16 months. He was last seen getting knocked out by Marlon Vera. Martinez lost at UFC 247 to Andre Ewell to snap a modest two-fight winning streak. That was the third loss of his career. Martinez is a -253 favorite here over Saenz with a heavily-juiced total on the over. The 39-year-old Saenz probably doesn’t have too many fights left in him and a beatdown here could accelerate that retirement process.
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Trevin Giles (+183) vs. Kevin Holland (-213); Total: 1.5 (-185/155)

Initially, Trevin Giles was going to face Jun Yong Park, but travel restrictions because of COVID-19 have kept both Park and Da Ung Jun at home. Now Giles will draw Kevin Holland, who just got switched on to the card a little over a week ago. Holland is still the big favorite north of $2.

Giles got back in the win column against James Krause back at UFC 247 in February, but it was not an inspiring performance. Holland is back after knocking out Anthony Hernandez just 39 seconds into their fight on May 16. He got caught by Brendan Allen in a submission, but Holland has been very impressive in his UFC bouts otherwise. Giles doesn’t have a great ground game. Holland is the better striker. That is why we see the big favorite role here and the chalk should hold up.

Pick: Kevin Holland

Bobby Green (+131) vs. Lando Vannata (-151); Total: 2.5 (-275/215)

Bobby Green has gone the distance in each of his last four fights. Twice he has won unanimously and twice he has lost unanimously. He’ll now take on Lando Vannata in a fight very much expected to go to the cards. Green survived a slam takedown from Clay Guida last time out to pick up the win, as he was the far more accurate and aggressive striker.

Vannata is coming off of a loss to Yancy Medeiros before the pandemic shut everything down. He’s 2-2-1 over his last five fights and has gone the distance in four of those. That’s why we have this big -275 price tag. Vannata wasn’t any more active than Medeiros, he was just more accurate. That fight was kept virtually upright for both guys. Green is a more versatile fighter and should be just as active as Vannata. This looks like a good spot to roll the dice on an upset.

Pick: Bobby Green

Randy Brown (+151) vs. Vicente Luque (-176); Total: 1.5 (-165/135)

Randy Brown and Vicente Luque could very well give us the best fight of the night. Each of Brown’s last three fights has ended in a finish and he has been the victor in the last two. He got Warlley Alves to tap out and knocked out Bryan Barberena. It has been a good way to bounce back from losses to Niko Price and Belal Muhammad. Brown is 12-3 in his career with 12 of his 15 fights ending in some kind of stoppage.

Vicente Luque is giving up some size here. Brown has four inches on the favorite, but that hasn’t altered the odds too much, as Luque is still a comfortable favorite. Luque is a hard worker and that aggressiveness is expected to be a factor in this fight. His win over Niko Price last time out at UFC 249 was a vicious barrage and a big step in the right direction for the 28-year-old. Luque now has 10 knockouts and has only tapped twice. Brown hasn’t fought in a while, but Luque was able to stay sharp with that May fight. This one will have fireworks and has strong Fight of the Night potential, with Luque coming out on top.

Pick: Vicente Luque

Jennifer Maia (+132) vs. Joanne Calderwood (-152); Total: 2.5 (-400/300)

The only women’s fight on the card is the lead-in to the main event, as Jennifer Maia takes on Joanne Calderwood. Calderwood draws the favorite role here with wins in three of her last four fights, but this is her first fight in 2020. She last won by split decision over Angela Lee at UFC 242. It will be about focus here for Calderwood, who may have a bigger shot down the line against Valentina Shevchenko. Shevchenko is not ready to come back yet, so Calderwood wants to stay sharp against Maia.

This could be a “be careful what you wish for” scenario for Calderwood, as she has a lot to lose here. Maia is a dangerous opponent, as evidenced by wins over Roxanne Modafferi and Alexis Davis last year. She also lost to Katlyn Chookagian, a fighter that Calderwood also lost to at UFC 238. Calderwood should win here and she’s supposed to win here, but this is definitely a dangerous fight for her to take. She’ll have to be focused.

Pick: Joanne Calderwood

Derek Brunson (+260) vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (-310); Total: 1.5 (-115/-115)

This looks to be a bad matchup for 36-year-old Derek Brunson. He has a much more extensive resume than Edmen Shahbazyan and more fight IQ, so that could serve him well in this one. He’s coming off of a very efficient effort against Ian Heinisch at UFC 241, but that was way back in August of last year. He’s fought the best that this division has to offer and has held his own.

Shahbazyan has not, but the potential is oozing from the 22-year-old. Since making a statement on the Dana White Contender Series two years ago, Shahbazyan has won four times in UFC matchups, including the last three by first-round stoppage. Brunson has been knocked out five times, though the last two have been legends in Israel Adesanya and Jacare Souza. Shahbazyan has a long way to go to be discussed among those guys, but there is a reason why he draws a name opponent in Brunson here and this is a chance to put him over in hopes of a bigger fight in the fall.

Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan

UFC on ESPN+ 31: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions

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