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<p>ESPN+ will be covering the week 13 matchup between the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders and New Mexico State Aggies, set to kick off at 2:30 ET from Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium in Murfreesboro. The Blue Raiders are the -3.5 point favorites at home, with the over/under line currently at 50.5 points. Middle Tennessee has a 3-7 record for the season, while New Mexico State is 2-8 overall.</p><h3>NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES VS MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -3.5</p><p>This game will be played at Johnny “Red” Floyd Stadium at 2:30 ET on Saturday, November 23rd.</p><h3>WHY BET THE MIDDLE TENNESSEE BLUE RAIDERS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders winning this one by a score of 28 to 20</li><li>Not only do we have the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -3.5</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 50.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The New Mexico State Aggies Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs</h3><p>New Mexico State enters Week 13 with a 2-8 record and no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are ranked 133rd in our power rankings ahead of their game against Middle Tennessee.</p> <p></p><p>The Aggies have not been favored in any games this season and have an average scoring margin of -18.4 points per game. Their ATS record is 3-5, with a 2-1 mark at home and 1-4 on the road.</p> <p></p><p>New Mexico State’s over/under record stands at 5-2-1, with their games averaging 56 points. This week’s line is set at 50.5 points, slightly below their average line of 50.9 points.</p><p>New Mexico State’s offense has struggled this season, ranking 130th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. They are averaging 18.8 points per game, placing them 90th in the nation, and their third-down conversion rate is just 36.1%. Their passing game has been particularly weak, ranking 128th in passing yards per game, with only 114.1 yards on average. They are 92nd in completions, with 10.5 per game, and their completion percentage is 41.8%. Their passer rating is 46, the worst in the country.</p> <p>Santino Marucci leads the team with 519 passing yards, three touchdowns, and five interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 48. On the ground, New Mexico State ranks 18th in rushing attempts, averaging 182.1 yards per game. Seth McGowan has rushed for 711 yards, averaging 5 yards per carry, and has scored three touchdowns. PJ Johnson III leads the receivers with 256 yards and one touchdown.</p><p>New Mexico State's defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 37.2 points per game. In their recent 38-3 loss to Texas A&M, they gave up 38 points and 565 total yards, including 356 passing yards and three passing touchdowns, though they did manage to force two interceptions.</p> <p></p><p>Opponents have averaged 206.2 rushing yards per game against New Mexico State, ranking them 147th in the nation. Through the air, they’ve allowed 256.5 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 57.8% of their passes and posting a 96.9 passer rating.</p><h3>Are The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?</h3><p>Middle Tennessee enters Week 13 with a 3-7 record, and they have no chance of becoming bowl-eligible. They are 0-3 at home this season and rank 127th in our CFB power rankings. The Blue Raiders have not been favored in any of their games so far.</p> <p></p><p>Their average scoring margin is -16.8 points per game, and they are 2-6 against the spread. At home, they are 0-3 ATS, while they’ve gone 2-3 on the road.</p> <p></p><p>This week’s over/under line is set at 50.5 points. Middle Tennessee’s games have averaged 51.2 points, with an average line of 55.6 points. Their over/under record for the season is 3-5.</p><p>Middle Tennessee’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 17.2 points per game, which ranks 94th in the nation. They are also 125th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 13. Their third-down conversion rate is 37.3%, and their rushing game has been almost nonexistent, with only 81.4 yards per game on the ground.</p> <p>The Blue Raiders have leaned heavily on their passing game, ranking 26th in passing attempts and completions, and averaging 260 yards per game through the air. Nicholas Vattiato has thrown for 2,559 yards and has a passer rating of 90. He has 12 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Omari Kelly leads the team with 811 receiving yards.</p><p>Middle Tennessee's defense has struggled this season, giving up an average of 34 points per game. In their recent 37-17 loss to Liberty, they allowed 37 points, including 311 rushing yards and five rushing touchdowns, though they did hold Liberty to 114 passing yards and forced one interception.</p><p></p><p>Opponents have averaged 209.3 rushing yards per game against Middle Tennessee, while quarterbacks have posted a 104.8 passer rating, averaging 247 passing yards per game. The defense has faced 37.8 rushing attempts per game and 29.8 passing attempts.</p>

New Mexico State Aggies vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Pick & Prediction 11/23/24

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<p>Planning on watching today's Pride and Aggies game? Catch the action at Corbett Sports Center in Greensboro, NC, as the Aggies hosts this showdown at 2:00 ET on FloH. Hofstra come into this Coastal Athletic Association conference matchup as the -11.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 140.5 points.</p><h3>HOFSTRA PRIDE VS NORTH CAROLINA A&T AGGIES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: North Carolina A&T Aggies +11.5</p><p>This game will be played at Corbett Sports Center at 2:00 ET on Saturday, February 10th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE NORTH CAROLINA A&T AGGIES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-69 in favor of the Aggies.</li><li>Not only will North Carolina A&T pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +11.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 140.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Can Hofstra Live Up to the Hype on the Road?</h3><p>With a record of 14-10, Hofstra is 7-4 in the Coastal Athletic Association. So far, the Pride have gone 7-6 in non-conference games. They have a three-game winning streak and are 13-6 when favored. On the road this season, Hofstra is 5-8 compared to 8-2 at home.</p>

<p>Most recently, Hofstra defeated Hampton 63-59. Over their last 10 road games, the Pride are 3-7, and they are 2-3 in their last five. So far, their average scoring margin on the road is -0.5.</p><p>When looking at Hofstra's ATS record this season, they are just 7-15-1. On the road, their ATS mark is 5-8. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, Hofstra is just 1-9 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS record over their last 10 games is 3-7.</p><p>This season, the over/under record for Hofstra games is 10-13 and today's line of 140.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (146.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 126 points.</p><p>Most recently, the Hofstra offense finished with just 63 points vs. Hampton. For the game, they hit 5/21 three-point attempts and a field goal percentage of 45.6%. For the season, the Hofstra offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 46%. So far, they have hit 55% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 10.3 made three's per contest.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the Hofstra defense is giving up an average of 70.1 points per contest. In their previous game vs. Hampton, the Pirates finished with a field goal percentage of 41% and a total of 59 points vs. Hofstra.</p><h3>Will the Aggies Secure A Victory as Home Underdogs?</h3><p>North Carolina A&T will enter this game as the underdog, as they have been in 20 of their 24 games this season. They have a record of 5-15 when they are the underdog, compared to 2-0 when they are favored.</p>

<p>At home this season, the Aggies have gone 4-6, and they are coming off a 80-58 loss to Charleston. Over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 4-6.</p><p>North Carolina A&T has an ATS record of 11-11 this season, including a mark of 4-6 at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Aggies are 5-5 vs. the spread.</p><p>So far this season, the over/under record for North Carolina A&T games is 10-12 and the average over/under line in their games is 146.3. Today's over/under line of 140.5 is lower than the average scoring total in their games this year of 145.6. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 129 points.</p><p>The North Carolina A&T offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 58 points versus Charleston. During the game, they attempted 16 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 42.1%. On the offensive front, the Aggies have a season-long field goal percentage of 40%, ranking 376th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 372nd in terms of percentage and 277th in three-pointers made.</p><p>As they prepare for the upcoming game, North Carolina A&T is focused on shoring up their defense, as they are currently allowing an average of 78.7 points per game (304th). The North Carolina A&T defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 80 points and allowed Charleston to connect on 10 threes.</p>

Hofstra Pride vs North Carolina A&T Aggies Betting Pick & Prediction 2/10/24

<p>Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Redbirds versus the Aces? Tip off is at at 2:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPN+. The game will be played at Ford Center in Evansville, IN. Illinois State is favored by -2 in this Missouri Valley conference matchup the against Evansville. The over/under for the game is set at 139.5 points.</p><h3>ILLINOIS STATE REDBIRDS VS EVANSVILLE ACES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Evansville Aces +2</p><p>This game will be played at Ford Center at 2:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE EVANSVILLE ACES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Aces.</li><li>Not only will Evansville pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +2.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 139.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the Redbirds Grab a Win on the Road?</h3><p>Illinois State enters today's game with a 10-10 overall record, including a 4-5 mark in Missouri Valley Conference play. The Redbirds are coming off a 77-67 win over Belmont and have won two straight games to improve their win streak to two.</p>

<p>On the road this season, Illinois State is just 2-6, and their average scoring margin away from home is -9.0 points per game. However, they have been the favorite in nine of their 20 games, going 6-3 in those matchups.</p><p>As the favorite this season, Illinois State has gone 5-4 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Redbirds have an ATS record of 6-4. On the road, Illinois State's ATS mark is just 2-6 this year and their ATS record over their last 10 road games is 2-8.</p><p>Illinois State's over/under record for the season sits at 8-11 and the average over/under line in their games is 140.8. So far, 11 of their games have finished with fewer points than today's line of 139.5. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points and their over/under record for their last three games is 0-3.</p><p>In their recent matchup, the Illinois State offense ended with 77 points against Belmont. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 45.6% and made 8 threes. The top scorer for the Redbirds was Myles Foster with 19 points, while Johnny Kinziger also added 13 to the scoreboard.</p><p>At present, the Redbirds' defense is nationally ranked 86th, allowing 68.5 points per game. In their previous game vs. Belmont, the Bruins finished with a field goal percentage of 45% and a total of 67 points vs. Illinois State.</p><h3>Can Evansville Lock in a Home Win?</h3><p>Evansville has been much better at home this season, as they have gone 6-2 compared to their 4-7 road record. They will look to bounce back from a 70-63 loss to Northern Iowa, which was their second straight defeat.</p>

<p>So far, the Aces have gone 11-9 overall, including a 2-7 mark in Missouri Valley Conference games. Their average scoring margin at home this season is +5.4 points per game.</p><p>As the underdog this season, Evansville has gone 9-5 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Aces are 5-5 vs. the spread. At home, Evansville has an ATS record of 4-4 this season and they are 1-4 vs. the spread in their last 5 home games.</p><p>On the season, the over/under record in Evansville games is 8-11, and today's over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games this year (146.1). Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1, and the average scoring total in those games is 143 points.</p><p>The Evansville offense is coming off a game in which they scored 63 points vs. Northern Iowa. Overall their field goal percentage was 44.6% while connecting on 7 threes. The team's top scorer is Yacine Toumi, who comes into today's matchup with an average of 11.3, while Ben Humrichous also maintains a PPG average of 15.8 leading up to the game.</p><p>At this time, the Aces' defense is positioned 217th in the country, permitting 74.6 points per game. The Evansville defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 70 points and allowed Northern Iowa to connect on 7 threes.</p>

Illinois State Redbirds vs Evansville Aces Betting Pick & Prediction 1/27/24

<p>Planning on watching today's Bearcats and Yellow Jackets game? Catch the action at McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta, GA, as the Yellow Jackets hosts this showdown at 2:00 ET on ACC. Cincinnati is favored by -8 in this non-conference showdown. The game's over/under is currently at 150 points.</p><h3>CINCINNATI BEARCATS VS GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +8</p><p>This game will be played at McCamish Pavilion at 2:00 ET on Saturday, November 23rd.</p><h3>WHY BET THE GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-69 in favor of the Yellow Jackets.</li><li>Not only will Georgia Tech pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +8.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 150 points, and we like the under with a projected 144 points.</li></ul><h3>Is a Road Win Possible for the Bearcats?</h3><p>Cincinnati improved to 4-0 on the season with a 76-60 road win over Northern Kentucky on Tuesday. The Bearcats, who were -14 favorites, covered the spread with the victory.</p> <p>Leading 32-28 at halftime, Cincinnati pulled away in the 2nd half, outscoring the Norse 44-32. The game’s total points of 136 fell just under the O/U line of 138.</p><p>Cincinnati's offense was clicking in their last game, shooting 53.4% from the field and hitting 50% of their threes (11/22). Their effective field goal percentage was an impressive 62.1%, and they finished with 19 assists.</p> <p>Simas Lukosius led the way, hitting 6 of 9 shots from deep, while Sam Vinson added 16 points. Dillon Mitchell also shot 6 of 9, contributing 12 points and 6 rebounds.</p><p>Despite giving up 15 offensive rebounds, Cincinnati's defense held their opponent to 60 points on 42% shooting from the field. They allowed 22 made two-point shots on 47 attempts, a 46% conversion rate.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, Cincinnati limited their opponent to just 4 made threes on 14 attempts, holding them to 28% shooting. They also sent them to the free-throw line 8 times, where they made 4, shooting 50%.</p><h3>Do the Yellow Jackets Have What it Takes at Home?</h3><h3>Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>Georgia Tech dropped their recent game against Georgia, falling 77-69 at home on Friday. Entering as +2 point underdogs, the Yellow Jackets not only lost but also failed to cover the spread. The total points for the game were 146, which was under the 155.5-point O/U line.</p> 

<p>After trailing 27-19 at halftime, Georgia Tech's offense came alive in the 2nd half, scoring 50 points. However, they also allowed 50 points in the 2nd half, preventing a comeback.</p><p>Georgia Tech's offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 36.5% from the field and 26.1% from beyond the arc, finishing with an effective field goal percentage of 41.3%. They managed to score 69 points, with Lance Terry leading the way, shooting 63.6% from the field and hitting 2 of 5 from deep.</p> <p>Silas Demary Jr. also had a strong performance, shooting 60% overall and grabbing 7 rebounds. The Yellow Jackets connected on 77.3% of their free throws, while recording 10 offensive rebounds and 11 assists as a team.</p><p>Georgia Tech's defense held their opponent to 77 points, despite giving up 17 free throws. They allowed 23 field goals on 63 attempts, for a 36% shooting percentage.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, Georgia Tech limited their opponent to 6 threes on 23 attempts, a 26% shooting rate. They also gave up 10 offensive rebounds.</p>

Cincinnati Bearcats vs Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/23/24

<p>Betting on today's Golden Bears and Commodores game? Catch the action at Memorial Gymnasium (TN) in Nashville, TN, as the Commodores hosts this showdown at 8:00 ET on SEC. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 159.5 points, and Vanderbilt is favored by -8 at home against California.</p><h3>CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS VS VANDERBILT COMMODORES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: California Golden Bears +8</p><p>This game will be played at Memorial Gymnasium (TN) at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, November 13th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-71 in favor of the Commodores.</li><li>Even though we have Vanderbilt winning straight-up, we like California at +8.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 159.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Will the Golden Bears Pull Through as the Away Underdog?</h3><h3>California Golden Bears Recent Game/Games</h3> <p>California opened their season with a 91-73 win over Cal Poly on Thursday, November 7th. The Golden Bears were -14.5 point favorites heading into the game and covered the spread with the win. The total points for the game ended at 164, surpassing the O/U line of 159.</p> <p>Cal led 39-35 at halftime before pulling away in the 2nd half, outscoring Cal Poly 52-38. The Bears' strong 2nd half performance was key in securing the victory and covering the spread.</p><p>California put up 91 points in their last game, shooting 46.2% from the field and 42.3% from beyond the arc, with an effective field goal percentage of 55.4%. They also hit 20 free throws at a 71.4% rate and grabbed 14 offensive rebounds, dishing out 12 assists.</p> <p>Isaac Jessup led the way with 20 points in just 23 minutes, hitting 5 of 9 threes. Jovan Blacksher Jr. added 18 points, connecting on 4 of 7 from deep, while Andrej Stojakovic contributed 15 points despite shooting 29.4% overall and 22.2% from three.</p><p>California's defense struggled, giving up 73 points on 46% shooting from the field. They allowed their opponent to hit 19 of 39 two-point attempts, a 48% success rate.</p> <p>From beyond the arc, California's defense allowed 11 three-pointers on 26 attempts, a 42% clip. They also sent their opponent to the line 28 times, where they made 20 free throws, shooting 71%. The Golden Bears gave up 14 offensive rebounds.</p><h3>Can The Commodores Secure a Home Victory?</h3><p>Vanderbilt's season is off to a solid start after an 85-76 win over Southeast Missouri State on Sunday. The Commodores were heavy favorites at -26.5 but didn't cover the spread, as the Redhawks kept things closer than expected.</p> <p>Vanderbilt led 40-38 at halftime and outscored Southeast Missouri State 45-38 in the second half. The combined points for the game hit 161, going over the pre-game O/U line of 155.</p><p>Vanderbilt's offense put up 85 points in their last game, despite shooting just 38.5% from the field and 12% from three-point range, hitting only 3 of 25 attempts. They were more effective inside, connecting on 55% of their two-point shots.</p> <p>The Commodores also made 32 of 41 free throws, shooting 78% from the line, and grabbed 20 offensive rebounds. BJ Ward led the way with 22 points, hitting 6 of 7 threes, while Teddy Washington Jr. added 19 points and 5 rebounds.</p><p>Despite Vanderbilt's defense holding their opponent to just 38% shooting from the field, they still allowed 76 points. The Commodores gave up 22 two-point field goals on 40 attempts, a 55% shooting rate.</p> <p>Vanderbilt's defense was effective from beyond the arc, limiting their opponent to 3/25 shooting from three-point range (12%). However, they sent their opponent to the free-throw line 41 times, where they converted 32 free throws (78%). The Commodores also allowed 20 offensive rebounds.</p>

California Golden Bears vs Vanderbilt Commodores NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/13/24

<p>UFC 264 probably didn’t work out the way that everybody wanted, but the outcome of the Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier fight sure seemed like it was going to reach that conclusion at some point anyway.</p>



<p>Less-heralded fighters will take center stage for this week’s event at the UFC Apex with a main event between Islam Makhachev and Thiago Moises. That is the main event of this card known as UFC on ESPN 26 on Saturday July 17.</p>



<p>Eleven fights are scheduled in total for this card, which will go back behind closed doors at the UFC’s training facility. We’ll look at the odds from <strong><a href="https://www.bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline">BetOnline Sportsbook</a></strong> to see if we can find some good wagers.</p>



<h2 id="h-alan-baudot-285-vs-rodrigo-nascimento-350-total-1-5-115-145"><strong><u>Alan Baudot (+285) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-350); Total: 1.5 (115/-145)</u></strong></h2>



<p>The lone heavyweight fight of the evening is the lead-off match, as Alan Baudot looks for his first UFC win. The 33-year-old Frenchman lost to Tom Aspinall back in October by first-round knockout to fall to 8-2. His other loss was to Dalcha Lungiambula, so his two losses are to the two best fighters he has faced.</p>



<p>Rodrigo Nascimento also lost that night, but to Chris Daukaus in just 45 seconds. It was the first career loss for Nascimento, who is more of a grappler and a submission artist than a striker. Daukaus was going to keep that fight upright. Baudot probably won’t have as much success.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-rodrigo-nascimento"><strong>Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-malcolm-gordon-250-vs-francisco-figueiredo-300-total-2-5-120-150"><strong><u>Malcolm Gordon (+250) vs. Francisco Figueiredo (-300); Total: 2.5 (120/-150)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Another big underdog in an early fight as Malcolm Gordon looks for his first UFC win. Gordon is 0-2 with losses to Su Mudaerji and Amir Albazi. He was 12-3 prior to that. Francisco Figueiredo, a former Jungle Fight competitor, won his debut fight over Jerome Rivera back in January. He should get another win here.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-francisco-figueiredo"><strong>Pick: Francisco Figueiredo</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-anderson-dos-santos-145-vs-miles-johns-170-total-2-5-205-165"><strong><u>Anderson</u></strong><strong><u> Dos Santos (+145) vs. Miles Johns (-170); Total: 2.5 (-205/165)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Miles Johns rebounded nicely from his first career loss with a knockout win over Kevin Natividad on Halloween. Now the 27-year-old Johns faces Anderson Dos Santos, who is 1-2 in his UFC career. Dos Santos is 21-8 and has a strong ground game, which seems concerning for Johns, who has won six of his 11 fights by decision. This will be a good test of his takedown defense.</p>



<p>Johns is the taller fighter, which should help him hold serve here as a favorite, but this fight looks a lot more competitive and is a tougher handicap than the first two.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-miles-johns"><strong>Pick: Miles Johns</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-sergey-morozov-118-vs-khalid-taha-138-total-2-5-220-180"><strong><u>Sergey Morozov (+118) vs. Khalid Taha (-138); Total: 2.5 (-220/180)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Sergey Morozov lost his UFC debut to Umar Nurmagomedov back in January, but the former M-1 bantamweight champion will get another shot here. It was Morozov’s first fight since October 2019, so some cage rust was to be expected and that was certainly the case, as he was very efficient with his strikes and takedown defense.</p>



<p>Khalid Taha, who is 1-2 with a No Contest in four UFC fights, does have nine knockouts to his name, but we haven’t seen as much of that striking power at this level. Morozov should look better in this spot than he did in his last fight and is an intriguing upset candidate.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-sergey-morozov"><strong>Pick: Sergey Morozov</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-montserrat-conejo-400-vs-amanda-lemos-600-total-2-5-145-115"><strong><u>Montserrat</u></strong><strong><u> Conejo (+400) vs. Amanda Lemos (-600); Total: 2.5 (-145/115)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Mexican strawweight Montserrat Conejo will look to improve to 2-0 in the UFC with this fight against Amanda Lemos. Conejo was a winner over Cheyanne Buys with an impressive debut on March 20, but this is a big step up in class against a bigger fighter in Lemos. It was a big win for Conejo, who entered on short notice and won the fight easily.</p>



<p>Lemos is 3-1 in UFC, with a loss to Leslie Smith in her debut back in 2017. Otherwise, she’s won three times since December 2019 and hasn’t really broken a sweat in any of those fights. She’s -600 for a reason here, but that does seem like a bit of a big price to bet. Lemos has won eight of nine by stoppage, so the under 2.5 isn’t a bad look here if she’s that heavy of a favorite to win.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-under-2-5"><strong>Pick: Under 2.5</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-preston-parsons-275-vs-daniel-rodriguez-335-total-1-5-135-105"><strong><u>Preston</u></strong><strong><u> Parsons (+275) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (-335); Total: 1.5 (-135/105)</u></strong></h2>



<p>The UFC debut for Preston Parsons comes against Daniel Rodriguez at 170 pounds. The welterweight is 9-2 in his career and has won four straight fights by submission. All nine of his wins have been via submission. It is a huge opportunity for the 26-year-old to go up against Rodriguez, who has fought five times in the last 17 months with a 4-1 record.</p>



<p>Rodriguez has fought a lot of staples in the welterweight division and his additional experience at the upper levels seems to be a big deciding factor in where this is lined. Rodriguez has never tapped out in 16 career fights and it seems like it will be a challenge for Parsons to win a decision against such a proven, savvy fighter.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-daniel-rodriguez"><strong>Pick: Daniel Rodriguez</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-billy-quarantillo-140-vs-gabriel-benitez-160-total-2-5-170-140"><strong><u>Billy Quarantillo (+140) vs. Gabriel Benitez (-160); Total: 2.5 (-170/140)</u></strong></h2>



<p>The main card begins with Gabriel Benitez, who is an injury replacement for Herbert Burns, up against Billy Quarantillo. Quarantillo, a favorite on the Dana White Contender Series, is coming off of a loss to Gavin Tucker, which is just the third of his career. The 32-year-old former KOTC champ had won eight straight prior to that fight.</p>



<p>Benitez scored a nice bounce back win over Justin Jaynes last time out after back-to-back losses. The 33-year-old has a very versatile skill set with the ability to win in a lot of different ways. So does Quarantillo, so this has Fight of the Night potential on what is an otherwise weak card.</p>



<p>It seems hard to trust Benitez here, as the first four minutes with Jaynes were pretty even before the knockout shot to the abdomen.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-billy-quarantillo"><strong>Pick: Billy Quarantillo</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-dustin-stoltzfus-185-vs-rodolfo-vieira-220-total-1-5-130-100"><strong><u>Dustin Stoltzfus (+185) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (-220); Total: 1.5 (-130/100)</u></strong></h2>



<p>This is a big opportunity for Dustin Stoltzfus, a Dana White Contender Series find that lost a little over two months after getting his contract. It was a unanimous decision loss at UFC 255 for Stoltzfus, who was 13-1 coming into that match against Kyle Daukaus. It is Daukaus’s only UFC win in three tries. The 6-foot-3 Daukaus did have a size edge over Stoltzfus and used that effectively in the fight.</p>



<p>Rodolfo Vieira will not, but he is still a big favorite here at 185 pounds. Vieira lost to Alexander Hernandez last time out by second-round submission after winning his first two UFC fights. Stoltzfus has never lost via stoppage. Vieira has seven stoppage wins, so maybe this is an all-or-nothing fight, but the juice on the over 1.5 is not terribly prohibitive and a better way to bet on this fight rather than trust two fighters still finding their way in the promotion.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-over-1-5"><strong>Pick: Over 1.5</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-jeremy-stephens-178-vs-mateusz-gamrot-208-total-2-5-130-100"><strong><u>Jeremy Stephens (+178) vs. Mateusz Gamrot (-208); Total: 2.5 (-130/100)</u></strong></h2>



<p>If it feels like we haven’t seen Jeremy Stephens in a while, that’s because we haven’t. Stephens fought at UFC 249 in May and suffered his fourth loss in five fights. It would probably be five in a row, but an accidental eye poke from Yair Rodriguez resulted in a No Contest. Stephens is a shell of the fighter that he used to be, now 35 years of age. He’s fought much better competition than Mateusz Gamrot has, but that’s about all we can say in favor of Stephens here.</p>



<p>Gamrot, the former KSW champ, is 1-1 in UFC. He just won in April over Scott Holtzman after losing his debut fight to Guram Kutateladze. As bad as Stephens has been lately, Gamrot is not at all experienced against fighters like this. If Stephens has anything left in the tank, we should see it here. If nothing else, Gamrot is not a big finisher, so the over 2.5 is very much in play.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-over-2-5"><strong>Pick: Over 2.5</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-marion-reneau-125-vs-miesha-tate-145-total-2-5-300-240"><strong><u>Marion Reneau (+125) vs. Miesha Tate (-145); Total: 2.5 (-300/240)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Well then. Miesha Tate has not fought since November 12, 2016 when she lost to Raquel Pennington by unanimous decision and then retired from MMA. She’ll make her return here to take on Marion Reneau. The fact that Tate hasn’t fought in 4.5 years and is still a favorite seems to say a lot about Reneau, who is 9-7-1 in her MMA career.</p>



<p>Reneau will be retiring win or lose here at the age of 44. Tate has stayed around the sport in an executive role for ONE Championship, but getting back in the cage is an altogether different feeling. She’ll turn 35 in August, so she isn’t old by fight standards, but rust could be a huge factor.</p>



<p>That being said, Reneau has lost four in a row and she’s on her way out the door.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-miesha-tate"><strong>Pick: Miesha Tate</strong></h3>



<h2 id="h-thiago-moises-450-vs-islam-makhachev-700-total-4-5-150-120"><strong><u>Thiago Moises (+450) vs. Islam Makhachev (-700); Total: 4.5 (-150/120)</u></strong></h2>



<p>Except for women’s title fights, it is hard to remember a line this high for a UFC main event. Islam Makhachev can move to 20-1 with a win here over Thiago Moises. The 26-year-old Moises has been impressive in UFC to this point and has fought some more accomplished competition than Makhachev, so maybe he will have a puncher’s chance in this fight.</p>



<p>It is hard to take +450 to fade Makhachev, who only has the one loss, but taking a -700 seems challenging here as well. This will be the first fight set for championship rounds in either guy’s UFC career. Moises went into the fifth round three times during his stints in RFA and LFA.</p>



<p>This one will likely go the full 25.</p>



<h3 id="h-pick-over-4-5"><strong>Pick: Over 4.5</strong></h3>



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UFC on ESPN 26: Makhachev vs. Moises Betting Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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