Looking to win big? The Aggies and Mustangs face off at 6:00 ET on ESPN+. The Mustangs are hosting the game at Mott Athletics Center in San Luis Obispo, CA. UC Davis is favored by -9 in this Big West conference matchup the against Cal Poly. The over/under for the game is set at 133 points.


The Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs +9

This game will be played at Mott Athletics Center at 6:00 ET on Saturday, February 3rd.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Mustangs.
  • Not only will Cal Poly pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +9.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 133 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.

Can the Aggies Live Up to the Hype on the Road?

UC Davis is 13-8 overall and 8-2 in Big West play. They have gone 5-6 in non-conference action and have a road record of 4-4. The Aggies are favored by nine points today, and they have gone 7-4 as the favorite this season.

Coming off a 79-69 win over UC Santa Barbara, UC Davis has gone 4-1 in their last five road games. For the season, their average scoring margin on the road is +1.6, and they are currently on a two-game road winning streak.

UC Davis has an ATS record of 11-8 this season, including a mark of 6-2 on the road. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Aggies are 5-5 vs. the spread.

UC Davis' over/under record for the season is 9-10 and today's line of 133 is lower than the average over/under line of 144 in their games. So far, 19 of their games have had higher over/under lines than today's total. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 135 points and their OU record during this stretch is 2-1. For the season, their games have averaged 140.5 points.

UC Davis is coming off a good offensive performance, putting up 79 points vs. UC Santa Barbara. This figure is more than their season average of 72.5 points per game. The team's top scorer is Elijah Pepper, who enters today's matchup with an average of 21.2, while Ty Johnson also carries a PPG average of 16.8 into the game.

So far, the Aggies' defense is ranked 81st in the country at 67.7 points per contest. On average, opposing teams are hitting 5.3 threes per game vs. Cal Poly. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 29.0%.

Will the Mustangs Come Through as Home Underdogs?

Cal Poly comes into this game as a big underdog, as they are getting 9 points against UC Davis. The Mustangs have struggled all season, as they are just 4-18 overall and have lost 10 straight games. In Big West play, they are 0-10.

At home, Cal Poly is just 2-7 this season, and they have lost six straight games at home. Over their last 10 games at home, they are 3-7, and for the year, they are being outscored by an average of 6.7 points per game.

Cal Poly's ATS record this season is 9-12, including a mark of 4-5 at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Mustangs have gone 3-7 vs. the spread.

Cal Poly's over/under record for the season sits at 9-10-2, and today's line of 133 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this year (134). So far, 12 of their games have finished with fewer points than today's OU line. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 131 points, and their over/under record over their last 10 games is 4-5-1.

Cal Poly offense recently wrapped up a game with a total of 59 points against UC Irvine. In that game, they made 5/12 three-point attempts and achieved a field goal percentage of 41.4%. In terms of offense, the Mustangs have a season-long field goal percentage of 40%, putting them 377th in the NCAA. Regarding three-pointers, they are ranked 314th in percentage and 334th in three-pointers made.

Currently, the Mustangs' defense holds the 192nd rank in the nation, allowing 72.7 points per game. So far, the Cal Poly defense is giving up an average of 8.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 12.4 times per game (621st).