Looking to win big? The Maple Leafs and Islanders face off at 7:00 ET on ESPN. The Islanders are hosting the game at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY. The Maple Leafs are the favorites in this Eastern conference matchup against Islanders. The over/under for the game is set at 6.5 goals.


The Pick: New York Islanders +1.5

This game will be played at UBS Arena at 7:00 ET on Thursday, January 11th.


  • With the Maple Leafs being favored by 1.5, our NHL analytics models has this one playing out 4-3 in favor of the Maple Leafs.
  • Take the Maple Leafs on the moneyline
  • On the puck line, we like Islanders (+1.5)

Will the Maple Leafs Pull Through as the Favored Road Team?

On the season, the Maple Leafs have gone 21-10-7, putting them in 4th place in the Eastern Conference and 3rd in the Atlantic Division. Over their last ten games, Toronto has gone just 5-5, but they have won four straight games overall.

When playing on the road this season, the Maple Leafs have gone 11-3-5, and they have won three straight games away from home. Toronto has been favored in 32 of their 38 games this season, and they have gone 18-8-6 as the favorite.

On the season, Toronto has gone 13-25 against the puck line and 8-24 as the favorite. So far, they have 11 wins by multiple goals and are 5-5 in their last ten games vs. the puck line.

As the favorite, the Maple Leafs have gone 0.4 goals per game better than their opponents. In their last ten road games, Toronto is 4-6 vs. the puck line.

Games involving Toronto have an average of 6.9 goals per game this season. Their average over/under line is 6.5. In terms of their over/under performance, the Maple Leafs come in with a record of 20-17-1.

Toronto has played well in their previous three road games, going 3-0 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 3 goals per game while allowing 0. The team also performed well vs the puck line at 2-1.

In terms of their offensive performance, the Maple Leafs are averaging 3.6 goals per game this season, putting them in the 7th spot in the NHL. When it comes to shots on goal per game, they are ranked 9th in the league. This year, the Maple Leafs have recorded a 10-4 record in games where they outshoot their opponent. For games with fewer shots on goal, they have a 10-5 record.

The leading scorer for Toronto's offense is Auston Matthews. Coming into the game he has 31 goals, ranking 1st in the NHL. Along with his scoring, he has come up with 15 assists so far.

Defensively, the Islanders come into the season ranked 3rd in goals allowed. Opponents are averaging 34.9 shots per game against New York. For the season, they are ranked 4th in shutouts, coming in with 4 shutouts.

Goalie Martin Jones gets the start and has made 10 starts this season. His record at this point is 8-3, and his save percentage is 0.427%.

Can the Islanders Pull Out the Win as Home Underdogs?

Through 40 games, the Islanders have gone 18-12-10 and sit in 7th place in the Eastern Conference. In the Metropolitan Division, they are in 4th place. Over their last ten games, the Islanders have gone 4-6 and have dropped two straight games.

At home this season, the Islanders have gone 10-5-6 and have been the underdog in 22 of their 40 games. Against Eastern Conference opponents, they have gone 12-13 this season.

At home, the Islanders have gone 8-13 on the puck line this season and their overall puck line record is 21-19. So far, they have 11 losses by multiple goals and 11 losses by just one goal.

As the underdog, the Islanders have a puck line record of 16-6, and their average scoring margin on the road and at home is -.3 goals per game. In their last ten home games, the Islanders are 6-4 against the puck line.

This season, New York's games have an average of 6.4 goals per game. The average over/under number for the season is 6. The Islanders come in with an over/under performance of 24-14-2.

When looking at their past three road matchups, Toronto has an puck line record of 2-1 while averaging 3 per game. The team went 3-0 overall in these games.

The Islanders come into the game scoring an average of 3 goals per game, putting them 20th in the NHL. Regarding shots targeted at the goal per game, they are 22nd in the league. Looking at how the Islanders' offense is performing during power plays, they are 16th in power play goals and 5th in shorthanded goals.

The leading scorer for New York's offense is Brock Nelson. Coming into the game he has 19 goals, ranking 19th in the NHL. Nelson also comes into the game with 16 assists.

Defensively, the Islanders are currently 3rd in goals allowed. On average, opponents are taking 34.9 shots per game against New York. They also are 4th in shutouts, coming in with 4 shutouts.

Goalie Ilya Sorokin gets the start and has made 27 starts this season. His record at this point is 12-8, and his save percentage is 1.0%.