Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 5/7/24
At 6:40 PM from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have an interleague matchup between the Blue Jays and Phillies. Heading into Tuesday’s game, the Blue Jays are 16-19, while the Phillies have the best record in baseball at 25-11. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the Phillies are the betting favorite at -136.
Jose Berrios is starting for the Blue Jays, and he is facing off against Cristopher Sanchez for the Phillies. Philadelphia is currently on a six-game winning streak. If you’re looking to watch this game on TV, it is being carried by NBC Sports Philadelphia and Sportsnet.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS TORONTO BLUE JAYS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline -136
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 6:40 ET on Tuesday, May 7th.
HOW TO BET THE BLUE JAYS VS PHILLIES:
- We have the Phillies winning by a score of 5 to 4
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Blue Jays to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Blue Jays Records & Stats
The Blue Jays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Nationals with an 11-8 loss. Toronto was actually the slight favorite on the money line going into the game but fell behind big early, as the Nationals scored five times in the 2nd.
Alek Manoah had a rough outing, giving up six earned runs on six hits and issuing four walks. The Blue Jays also used Génesis Cabrera out of the bullpen, and he took the loss, as the Blue Jays couldn’t complete their comeback. Toronto’s offense scored eight runs on 10 hits but only had one home run.
Toronto is 5th in the AL East, trailing the Orioles by 7.5 games. Overall, they are 16-19 and are 5-5 in AL East matchups. The Blue Jays are coming off losing their series vs. the Nationals, going 1-2 in those games.
So far, the Blue Jays have been much better at home, going 8-7 compared to 8-12 on the road. As the underdog, Toronto has dropped six straight games, and they are just 3-10 as the underdog overall. When favored, the Blue Jays are 13-9 this year.
When the Toronto Blue Jays are the favorite, they are 11-11 vs. the run line, but as the underdog, they are just 4-9. Their overall run line record is 15-20, and they have a run differential of -1.1 runs per game. Their average run differential in wins is +2.9, while it is -4.4 in losses. Their run line record is 9-11 on the road and 6-9 at home.
With a combined run average of 8.4 runs per game, the Toronto Blue Jays have seen their games go over the over/under line of 8.5 runs in five of their last ten games. On the season, their over/under record is 15-19, and they have gone over the line in 48.6% of their games when the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their over streak is currently at three games, with their most recent game against the Washington Nationals seeing a combined 19 runs scored.
José Berríos gets the start for the Blue Jays today and comes in with a record of 4-2 and an ERA of 1.44. Looking at his overall numbers, Berríos has made seven starts, and opponents are batting .199 this season. Berríos has made six quality starts and is coming off a rough outing where he gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Berríos has been tough to score on this year, as he has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts.
For the season, the Blue Jays are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have also been a poor power-hitting team, as they are just 13th in the league in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of .362. As a team, the Blue Jays are batting .226, which is 16th in the league.
Justin Turner and Daulton Varsho are tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 16, and are also tied for 2nd on the team with four home runs. Turner comes into the game with a season-long batting average of .283, while Varsho is hitting just .236. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has also gone deep four times this season, but is batting just .239. However, he has been hot of late, going 10/28 in his last seven games.
Phillies Records & Stats
The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Giants, closing out their series with a 6-1 win. After going on to score four runs in the 2nd inning, the Phillies added another two runs in the 4th to put things out of reach. Looking at the betting lines going into the game, the Phillies were at -237 at home.
Zack Wheeler put together a great start for the Phillies, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out 11 Giants batters. Bryce Harper was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Philadelphia is hosting the Blue Jays today with an overall record of 25-11, good for 1st place in the NL East. The Phillies hold a three-game lead over the Braves for the division lead. The Phillies have won six straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Giants with four straight wins.
So far, the Phillies are 3-3 in divisional games, and they have been really good at home and solid on the road. Philadelphia is 14-6 at home and 11-5 on the road. As the favorite, the Phillies are 21-8 this year and 4-3 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 7-2-2 and have won three straight series.
When betting the run line, the Phillies have been a .500 team both overall and at home. They have a positive run differential both overall and at home, but they have been better against the run line on the road, where they are 9-7. They have been favored in 29 of their 33 games, and they have a losing record against the run line in those games.
When the Phillies have played at home this season, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs just 11.1% of the time. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 16-18 overall. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, the over/under record is 2-6.
Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has made six starts this season and has a record of 1-3. His ERA is 3.68, along with a WHIP of 1.53. Sánchez most recently faced the Angels, where he finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back at his last three starts, Sánchez has given up at least one home run. His strikeout numbers for those three starts are 3, 10, and 7. Sánchez has a total of two quality starts this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 3rd in home runs and have the league’s 3rd ranked scoring offense, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home so far, putting up 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are 5th in team batting average and have the league’s 2nd ranked on-base percentage. Philadelphia also does a good job of avoiding strikeouts, as they are 17th in the league in this category.
Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto are both on three-game hitting streaks, with Harper going 5/15 in his last five games with two homers and six RBIs. Alec Bohm comes into the game with a team-high 32 RBIs, which is the 2nd highest total in the league. He also has four homers and is batting .349. Kyle Schwarber has struggled with his batting average this season, hitting just .214, but his nine homers are the best mark on the team and 3rd in the league.