Looking to win big? The Vaqueros and Lumberjacks face off at 7:30 ET on ESPN+. The Lumberjacks are hosting the game at Johnson Coliseum in Nacogdoches, TX. The over/under for this Western Athletic conference contest is set at 149.5 points, with Stephen F. Austin being favored by -15.5 at home against Texas-Rio Grande Valley.


The Pick: Texas-Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros +15.5

This game will be played at Johnson Coliseum at 7:30 ET on Thursday, February 8th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Lumberjacks.
  • Even though we have Stephen F. Austin winning straight-up, we like Texas-Rio Grande Valley at +15.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 149.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.

Is A Road Victory Likely for Underdog Texas-Rio Grande Valley?

Heading into tonight's game, Texas-Rio Grande Valley is an underdog, as they have been in 18 of their 22 games this season. Their record as an underdog is 3-15, and they have lost five straight games.

On the road this season, Texas-Rio Grande Valley is 1-8, and their average scoring margin is -13.8 points per game. Over their last 10 road games, they have gone just 1-9.

As the underdog, Texas-Rio Grande Valley has an ATS record of 8-10 this season. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-5, but they have gone just 1-4 vs. the spread in their last 5 road games. Overall, their ATS record for the year is 8-12.

So far this season, the over/under record for Texas-Rio Grande Valley's games sits at 10-10. Currently, the average scoring total in their games is 150.8 points. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 133 points. For the year, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today's over/under line of 149.5.

Compared to their season average of 73 points per game, Texas-Rio Grande Valley struggled in their previous game. Against Southern Utah, the Vaqueros scored 59 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 26.9%. On the offensive front, the Vaqueros have a season-long field goal percentage of 42%, ranking 327th nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 390th in terms of percentage and 343rd in three-pointers made.

At present, the Vaqueros' defense is nationally ranked 306th, allowing 79.3 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Texas-Rio Grande Valley's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 42.7% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 28.3% this season.

Is It the Lumberjacks Game to Lose at Home?

Stephen F. Austin has been a much better team at home this season, going 7-5 compared to their 4-4 mark on the road. On the year, they have a scoring margin of +4.3 points per game at home.

Despite their recent struggles at home, the Lumberjacks have still gone 6-4 in their last 10 games at home. Overall, they are 13-9 this season.

Stephen F. Austin has struggled against the spread this season, going just 6-14. Their ATS mark at home is 4-8 and they are just 2-10 vs. the spread in their last 10 games as the favorite.

Stephen F. Austin's over/under record for the season is 12-8, and today's line of 149.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games of 145.8. So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today's line, including an average of 149 points in their last three games.

Compared to their season average of 77.5 points per game, Stephen F. Austin struggled in their previous game. Against Tarleton State, the Lumberjacks scored 64 points while finishing with a field goal percentage of 41.2%. Offensively, the Lumberjacks hold a season-long field goal percentage of 45%, placing them 161st in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 252nd in terms of percentage and 291st in three-pointers made.

So far, the Lumberjacks' defense is ranked 132nd in the country at 70.8 points per contest. Against Tarleton State in their most recent game, the Stephen F. Austin defense gave up a total of 75 points while allowing Tarleton State to hit 51% of their shots.