Texas A&M-Commerce Lions vs Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/4/24
The Lions and Hawkeyes are set to face off at 8:00 ET on B1G+. The Hawkeyes will host the game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA. The odds for this non-conference game currently have Iowa as the -30 favorite, with the over/under line sitting at 155 points.
TEXAS A&M-COMMERCE LIONS VS IOWA HAWKEYES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Texas A&M-Commerce Lions +30
This game will be played at Carver-Hawkeye Arena at 8:00 ET on Monday, November 4th.
WHY BET THE TEXAS A&M-COMMERCE LIONS:
- We have this one finishing with a projected score of 80-67 in favor of the Hawkeyes.
- Even though we have Iowa winning straight-up, we like Texas A&M-Commerce at +30.
- The over/under is currently sitting at 155 points, and we like the under with a projected 147 points.
Can the Lions Offense Score Enough on the Road?
Texas A&M-Commerce Lions Records
Texas A&M-Commerce finished last season with a 10-20 overall record, including a 7-13 mark in Southland Conference play. At home, they posted a 5-7 record, with an average scoring margin of -2.5 points per game. On the road, they went 5-13, with a -13.9 average scoring margin.
The Lions were 11-19 against the spread, with a 5-4 record when favored. As underdogs, they went 4-17 straight-up and 6-15 ATS. Their average over/under line was 140.8 points, and they had a 13-17 O/U record, with their games averaging 143.9 points.
Texas A&M-Commerce averaged 71.5 points per game last season, ranking 225th in possessions per game with 65.7. They struggled with shooting, finishing 366th in field goal percentage at 41% and 332nd in effective field goal percentage at 48%. Their two-point shooting was 50%, placing them 249th.
The Lions were 16th in three-point attempts per game with 27.9, making 8.7 per game, which ranked 59th. However, they shot just 31% from beyond the arc, ranking 365th. They also made 12.6 free throws per game, ranking 270th. Khaliq Abdul-Mateen and KC Ugwuakazi are their top returning players, averaging 4.9 and 3.5 points per game, respectively, last season.
Texas A&M-Commerce struggled defensively last season, allowing 74.6 points per game, which ranked 246th in the nation. Opponents shot 33.9% from three-point range against them, placing the Lions 326th in three-point defense. They also gave up 20.5 free throws per game, ranking 258th in that category.
However, the Lions were more effective in creating turnovers, averaging 7.9 steals per game, which ranked 55th nationally. They were also strong in blocking shots, averaging 5 per game, ranking 22nd in the country.
Will Iowa Secure A Victory as Home Favorites?
Iowa Hawkeyes Records
Iowa finished last season with an 18-14 record, going 10-11 in Big Ten play. At home, they were 14-6, with an average scoring margin of +9.8 points per game. On the road, they went 4-8, losing by an average of 5.7 points per game.
Against the spread, Iowa was 12-19, with a 21-11 over/under record. Their games averaged 161.9 points, with an average O/U line of 159.7. As the favorite, they were 14-3 straight-up and 7-9 ATS, and as the underdog, they went 4-11 straight-up and 5-10 ATS.
Last season, Iowa led the nation in possessions per game (70.8) and ranked 12th in points per game (82.9). They shot 47% from the field, placing 62nd, with an effective field goal percentage of 52% (123rd). The Hawkeyes made 6.5 three-pointers per game, shooting 34% from beyond the arc.
Payton Sandfort and Owen Freeman are Iowa’s top returning players. Sandfort averaged 16.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game last season, while Freeman contributed 10.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game.
Last season, Iowa struggled defensively, allowing 79.0 points per game, which ranked 316th in the nation. Opponents shot 36.5% from three-point range against them, placing Iowa 425th in that category. They also allowed 20.5 free throws per game, ranking 254th.
On the positive side, Iowa averaged 6.9 steals per game, ranking 140th, and 3.9 blocked shots per game, placing them 102nd in the country.