Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick & Prediction 12/22/24
On Sunday, December 22nd, the Buccaneers and Cowboys will face off at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Buccaneers are the road favorite with a point spread of -4. The Cowboys are the underdog with +172 odds on the money line. The over/under line is set at 49.5 points. The Cowboys need to add their record, and the Buccaneers need to add their record.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS VS DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys +4
This game will be played at AT&T Stadium at 8:20 ET on Sunday, December 22nd.
WHY BET THE DALLAS COWBOYS:
- We have the Buccaneers winning this one by a score of 23 to 21
- Even though we like the Buccaneers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Cowboys at +4
- We see this game finishing below the line of 49.5 points
Will The Buccaneers Win As Road Favorites?
The Buccaneers have won four straight games, bringing their record to 8-6 and putting them in first place in the NFC South. After a week 10 loss to the 49ers, Tampa Bay bounced back with wins over the Giants, Panthers, Raiders, and Chargers. In week 15, they defeated Los Angeles 40-17, covering the spread as 3-point underdogs. The O/U line was 46, and the teams combined for 57 points.
Heading into week 16, the Bucs have a +5.5 scoring margin and are 9-5 against the spread. Their O/U record is also 9-5, with their games averaging 52.1 points per game. Tampa Bay is 8th in our power rankings and has a 79.7% chance of winning the division and an 81.8% chance of making the playoffs.
Heading into week 16, the Buccaneers rank 8th in our offensive power rankings. They are 4th in the NFL in points per game (28.8) and lead the league in 1st-quarter scoring. Tampa Bay is 3rd in the NFL in yards per game (388.4) and 4th in passing yards (244) and rushing yards (144.4) per game. They rank 3rd in 3rd-down conversion percentage but are 28th in red zone conversion percentage, despite being 4th in red zone attempts.
Baker Mayfield is coming off a strong week 15 performance, throwing for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns with just 1 interception against the Chargers. Mike Evans had 9 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 117 yards on 15 carries. Tampa Bay scored 17 points in the 3rd quarter and 10 in the 4th.
In their 40-17 win over the Chargers, the Buccaneers’ defense allowed just 32 rushing yards on 11 attempts. The defense also gave up only 174 passing yards, with two late touchdowns accounting for the 64.7% completion rate against them. Tampa Bay’s defense was particularly effective on third downs, allowing the Chargers to convert on 0% of their third down attempts. They also came away with one interception and recorded three sacks.
The Buccaneers’ defense was disruptive up front, winning the quarterback hit battle by +8. Despite giving up 206 total yards, they were able to limit the Chargers’ scoring opportunities and put the game out of reach with a strong offensive performance.
Are The Cowboys Going Win In At Upset At AT&T Stadium
After snapping a two-game losing streak with a 30-14 win over the Panthers in week 15, the Cowboys are now 6-8 on the season. Dallas was a 2.5-point underdog in the game, but they came away with the win and the cover. The O/U line was 42 points, and the teams combined for 44. The over has hit in nine of the Cowboys’ games this season.
Heading into week 16, Dallas has a -5.9 scoring margin and ranks 29th in our NFL power rankings. They have a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Cowboys are 3-1 in division games, but their 1-6 home record has been a major issue. On the road, they are 5-2.
Cooper Rush has been solid for the Cowboys, bouncing back from his week 14 performance with a passer rating of 119 in week 15, throwing for 214 yards and 3 touchdowns without an interception. CeeDee Lamb led the receiving corps with 9 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown, while Rico Dowdle rushed for 149 yards on 25 carries.
Dallas ranks 25th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 21.3 points per game, which is 16th in the NFL. They are also 16th in yards per game, with 328.9, and rank 23rd in 3rd-down conversions, with a rate of 36.3%.
In the Cowboys’ most recent game, their defense came away with two interceptions and six sacks, as they held Carolina to just 175 passing yards. Despite giving up one passing touchdown, Dallas came out on top 30-14, limiting the Panthers to 235 total yards. The Cowboys’ run defense was also solid, allowing just 60 yards on 16 attempts.
Dallas’ defense was tough on third downs, allowing the Panthers to convert just 27.3% of their third down attempts. They also pressured the quarterback consistently, coming out ahead in the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials.