New Orleans Saints vs Green Bay Packers Betting Pick & Prediction 12/23/24
You can catch this week 16 NFC matchup between the Saints and Packers on ESPN at 8:15 ET. The Packers are heavily favored with a money line of -879 and are -13.5 point favorites at home at Lambeau Field. The Saints’ money line odds are +577, and the over/under line is set at 42 points.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS GREEN BAY PACKERS BETTING PICK
The Pick: New Orleans Saints +13.5
This game will be played at Lambeau Field at 8:15 ET on Monday, December 23rd.
WHY BET THE NEW ORLEANS SAINTS:
- We have the Packers winning this one by a score of 26 to 14
- Even though we like the Packers to win, our ATS pick is to take the Saints at +13.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 42 points
Will The Saints Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
After two straight wins, the Saints couldn’t keep the momentum going in week 15, falling 20-19 to the Commanders. Despite the loss, New Orleans managed to cover the spread, coming in as 7.5-point underdogs. The O/U line was set at 44.5 points, and the teams combined for 39, marking the Saints’ third straight under.
New Orleans is now 5-9, putting them 3rd in the NFC South. They rank 30th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of making the playoffs. Against the spread, the Saints are 6-8, with a -0.2 average scoring margin. Their O/U record is 7-7, with their games averaging 44.4 points per contest.
Heading into week 16, the Saints rank 18th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 15th in the NFL in both points per game (22.1) and yards per game (334.6). New Orleans ranks 20th in passing yards per game, averaging 210.2 on 31.6 attempts per game. On the ground, they are 10th in rushing yards per game (124.4) and 8th in rushing attempts. The Saints are converting 37.4% of their third downs, which ranks 18th in the league.
In week 15, New Orleans scored 12 points in the 4th quarter but fell short in a 20-19 loss to the Commanders. Spencer Rattler threw for 135 yards (10/21) and a touchdown, while Kendre Miller led the team with 46 rushing yards on 9 carries. Marquez Valdes-Scantling had 2 catches for 64 yards. The Saints converted 3 of 11 third-down attempts and went 1/2 in the red zone.
In their 20-19 loss to the Commanders, the Saints’ defense allowed 189 passing yards on 25 completions. Despite this, they gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed the Commanders to complete 80.6% of their passes. The Saints’ defense was able to get to the quarterback, recording an impressive eight sacks in the game.
Against the run, the Saints allowed 137 rushing yards on 35 attempts. Even though they struggled to stop the run, they did have eight tackles for loss in the game. On third down, the Commanders converted 52.9% of their chances.
Are The Packers Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
Heading into week 16, the Packers sit 3rd in our NFL power rankings and have a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs. They are 10-4, with a +6.6 scoring margin and a 7-6-1 record against the spread. Green Bay is 5-2 both at home and on the road, but they are just 1-3 in division games, giving them a 0.6% chance of winning the NFC North.
After a week 14 loss to the Lions, the Packers bounced back with a 30-13 win over the Seahawks in week 15. They covered the 3-point spread in that game, improving their ATS record to 7-6-1. The O/U line was 48 points, and the teams combined for 43, with the under hitting.
Heading into week 16, the Packers sit 7th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 27.1 points per game. They rank 4th in the NFL in total yards, with 375.4 per game, and are 11th in passing yards, despite ranking 29th in pass attempts. Green Bay leans on its rushing attack, ranking 5th in attempts and 4th in yards, with Josh Jacobs posting 94 yards on 26 carries in week 15. The Packers are 15th in 3rd-down conversions and 26th in red zone efficiency, despite ranking 3rd in red zone attempts.
Jordan Love has been outstanding, posting a passer rating of 123 in week 15, going 20/27 for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception. He had a 111 rating in week 14 and a 129 rating in week 13. Christian Watson led the Packers in receiving in week 15, with 3 catches for 56 yards, following a 114-yard performance in week 14.
Green Bay’s defense was outstanding in their 30-13 win over the Seahawks, allowing just 128 yards passing and coming up with 7 sacks. They defended the run well, even though Seattle only attempted 16 rushes, allowing 80 yards on the ground.
The Packers’ defense didn’t give up any touchdowns through the air and limited Seattle to a 30.8% conversion rate on third down. Additionally, they picked off two passes and held the Seahawks to 60.6% completions.