A strong college basketball card is on tap for tonight with a lot of quality matchups across multiple conferences. Every morning, we look for games with some actionable info or edges or seek out the biggest game of the night that everybody seems to have an opinion on. It is a process that takes a little while, but coming to a conclusion and putting together a preview is part of the fun on this side of the business.
The conclusion for Thursday was that the game between the San Francisco Dons and the Santa Clara Broncos would be the game. It is a 10 p.m. ET tip-off in the West Coast Conference and a game that may not be on the radar for most, especially with some major conference games running at the same time.
The money spends the same whether you win a bet in the WCC or the Pac-12, so let’s see if we can find an edge in the Dons vs. Broncos matchup with the Dons -4 and a total of 139 at Bookmaker Sportsbook.
San Francisco Dons
The Dons are an analytics darling. San Francisco head coach Todd Golden is a firm believer in what NBA teams like the Houston Rockets have done. The mid-range game is –EV, or negative expected value. Shots should be taken at the rim or from beyond the three-point line. On the season so far, more than half of San Francisco’s field goal attempts have been triple tries. Their 50.9% 3P Rate ranks fifth in the nation. And, interestingly enough, the analytics approach also carries over to the defensive side, where the Dons sell out on the perimeter. Opponents have only taken a three-pointer 28.1% of the time. The players don’t seem to have fully bought in as of yet, as they’ve still taken 169 “far twos” as defined by Bart Torvik. The Dons are shooting 30.2% on those shots, so the proof is in the pudding. They are shooting 63.3% on “close twos” and 36.2% on threes. If only the players would stop shooting those –EV mid-range and long twos, then San Francisco’s offense would run exactly as planned. That brings us to Khalil Shabazz. The highest-usage player for the Dons had 30 points in the last game against BYU, but he’s taken the most far twos and hasn’t finished at an efficient rate at the rim. Jamaree Bouyea, the team’s facilitator and point guard, has been the one to consistently get to the rim. Shabazz’s potential is on display regularly, but his shot selection and inability to finish at the cup are a big reason why San Francisco is only 3-3 in conference play and just 9-7 overall. We know the Dons and this style of basketball has potential. Hell, USF beat Virginia earlier this season. On the other hand, the “3 & D” approach can lead to some higher-variance outcomes, like losses to Cal and UMass Lowell. This is a team with a high ceiling and a relatively high floor, judging by the wins and losses, but they can be a frustrating team to bet on or against.CLAIM YOUR BOOKMAKER SPORTSBOOK 100% WELCOME BONUS