Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24
At 4:05 PM ET, the Phillies and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -219. The Nationals are +184 on the money line, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
MacKenzie Gore is starting for the Nationals, and he will be facing off against Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Philadelphia is 94-66 and is 1st in the NL East, while the Nationals are 4th in the division with a record of 70-90.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Washington Nationals Moneyline +184
This game will be played at Nationals Park at 4:05 ET on Saturday, September 28th.
HOW TO BET THE PHILLIES VS NATIONALS:
- We have the Nationals winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Nationals to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Washington cruised to a 9-1 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 1st inning, scoring four of their nine runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their only run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were at +155 on the money line.
Trevor Williams only went five innings for the Nationals but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Ranger Suarez was tagged for six runs in just two innings of work for the Phillies.
Washington’s offense was led by Stone Garrett, Juan Yepez, and Jacob Young, as they were the only three Nationals hitters to have more than one hit. Garrett and Yepez each homered in the game.
Phillies Records & Stats
With an overall record of 94-66, the Phillies lead the NL East by six games over the Mets. Philadelphia is 28-22 against other teams in the NL East. The Phillies have dropped three straight road games, and they are just one game above .500 on the road this year (40-39).
Philadelphia has been really good as the favorite this year, going 81-48 in those situations. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-18 this season. So far, they have been in 52 series, putting together a record of 27-18-7.
When the Phillies are on the road, they are a good bet to cover the run line, as they are 40-39 on the run line in road games this season. They have a run line record of 77-83 overall, and their average run margin on the road is +0.3 runs per game. They have covered the run line in their last three road games and have a run line record of 16-15 as the underdog.
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road against the Washington Nationals today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The over/under record for the Phillies this season is 76-75, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 15-16. The over has hit in their last three games.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals on the road. Wheeler has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 16-7 with a 2.56 ERA. This year, he has turned in 25 quality starts and is coming off a rough outing in which he gave up two earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Wheeler’s ERA on the road is 3.43, and he has a record of 6-4 away from home. At home, his record is 10-3 with a 2.56 ERA.
As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the league in runs per game at 4.8. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game, which is the 2nd best mark in the MLB. Overall, they are also near the top of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage. Philadelphia’s offense has been especially good at avoiding strikeouts, as they are just 15th in the league in strikeouts per game.
Kyle Schwarber has been struggling a bit over his last nine games, batting just .216, but he does have three homers in that stretch. For the season, he is batting .249 with a team-high 38 homers. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 14/32 in his last nine games, and he is currently on an eight-game hitting streak.
Nationals Records & Stats
Washington is 70-90 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 24 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Heading into today’s game, they are 24-26 in divisional matchups. The Nationals have lost three straight series and have an overall series record of 19-25-6 this year.
At home, the Nationals are 37-42 this year compared to 33-48 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in most of their games, where they are 55-77. As the favorite, Washington has gone 15-13 this year. They have really been struggling as of late, going just 2-8 over their last ten games.
The Nationals have a run line record of 88-72 this season, including a 42-37 mark at home. As the underdog, they are 75-57 on the run line, while they are 13-15 as the favorite. Their average run margin for the season is -0.6 runs per game.
The Nationals have been involved in high-scoring games this season, with their games averaging 8.8 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 75-79, and when the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 17 times and under 12 times. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and 79.4% of their games have had lines set higher than 7.5 runs. They have hit the over in their last two games.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today vs. the Phillies and comes into the game with a record of 10-12 and an ERA of 4.04. So far this year, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .253 off Gore this season. In his 31 appearances, Gore has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.65 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Gore pitched well, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. He picked up the win in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts.
So far this season, the Nationals offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They also have the 24th ranked home run total in the league. As a team, they are batting .242, which is 10th in the league, and have the 5th fewest strikeouts in the league. However, their team on-base percentage of .308 is just 14th in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .281 for the Nationals this season and has gone deep 17 times. His 68 RBIs are the best on the team. CJ Abrams has a team-high 20 homers but is batting just .246 for the season. Juan Yepez has gone 9/29 in his last eight games and is currently on a three-game hitting streak.