Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24

From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Rays and Red Sox facing off in an AL East matchup. This one gets started at 4:10 PM ET, and it is being televised on NESN. The Red Sox are favored on the money line (-122), while the Rays have a line of +104. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

Shane Baz is starting for the Rays, and he will be facing off against Kutter Crawford for the Red Sox. Boston comes into the game having lost two straight and is 80-80, while the Rays are 79-81 and are starting to +104.

BOSTON RED SOX VS TAMPA BAY RAYS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline -122

This game will be played at Fenway Park at 4:10 ET on Saturday, September 28th.

HOW TO BET THE RAYS VS RED SOX:

• We have the Red Sox winning by a score of 5 to 4
• However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Rays to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Tampa Bay picked up a 2-1 road win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a two-run 7th inning, and the Red Sox could only muster one run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at +103 on the money line.

Both offenses finished the game with six hits, and the Rays actually had one more strikeout than the Red Sox with seven. Tampa Bay’s two runs came on a Josh Lowe home run, while the Red Sox’s lone run came on a Nick Pivetta home run.

Taj Bradley started for the Rays and picked up the win, going six innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued one walk. As for the Red Sox, Pivetta went 6 2/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on four hits.

Rays Records & Stats

The Rays are 79-81 overall, and they trail the Yankees by 14 games in the AL East. Currently, they are in 4th place in the division, just a game behind the Red Sox for the 3rd spot. So far, they have gone 25-25 in divisional games. Tampa Bay is on the road today, and they are 37-42 away from home this season.

As the road underdog, the Rays have gone 26-31 this year, and they are 23-20-7 in series this year. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 23-20-7. They are also 37-31 as the favorite and 42-50 as the underdog this year.

The Rays have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 83-77 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 46-33. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a profitable run line bet as an underdog, going 59-33.

The Tampa Bay Rays have an over/under record of 66-85 this season, and their games have averaged 7.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, they have a record of 17-25-2. Overall, 46 of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 28.7% of their games. Their current under streak is at 2 games.

Right-hander Shane Baz is starting for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 13 starts this year and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his 13 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Baz most recently faced the Blue Jays, where he gave up one earned run in six innings of work. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.

Yandy Diaz has been a bright spot for the Rays this season, as he is batting .280 and leads the team with 65 RBIs. He also has an OBP of .339. Tampa Bay’s top home run hitters are Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe, but both players are batting under .240. Morel has 21 homers and is hitting just .194, while Lowe is also at .239 and has 21 homers.

As a team, the Rays are 29th in the league in runs per game at just 3.7. They are also near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS. Over his last eight games, Jonathan Aranda is hitting .269 with three homers.

Red Sox Records & Stats

Boston is 80-80 overall, and they are 3rd in the AL East, 13 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Red Sox have gone 24-26 in divisional games this year. So far, they have dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 37-42 at home.

As the underdog, the Red Sox are 39-44 this year, and they are 41-36 as the favorite. Boston’s overall series record is 25-19-6, and they have won two straight series.

When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road this season. Boston is 46-35 against the run line away from Fenway Park, compared to just 30-49 at home. The Red Sox have been favored in 77 games this season, going 28-49 against the run line in those contests. When they’ve been the underdog, they’ve gone 48-35 vs. the run line.

When the Boston Red Sox play at home, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. The Red Sox have an over/under record of 78-74 on the season, with an average combined run average of 9.3 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 15-12-3. Overall, 65.6% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8 runs, with 105 games having higher lines and 25 games having lower lines. Currently, the under has hit in their last two games.

Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford will be looking to build off his last outing, where he turned in a strong performance. Against the Twins on September 22nd, he picked up the win, going 7 2/3 innings and giving up just three earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Crawford has made 32 starts and has a record of 9-15. His ERA for the season is 4.17, along with a WHIP of 1.10. Opponents have a batting average of .219 vs. Crawford this season. Out of his 32 starts, he has 15 quality starts and is averaging 8.48 strikeouts per nine innings.

So far this season, the Red Sox have been one of the league’s best offensive teams, averaging 4.7 runs per contest, which is 9th in the MLB. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Overall, the Red Sox are 7th in home runs and have the league’s top team BABIP at .32. As a team, they are also 6th in batting average and have the 6th best slugging percentage in the league.

Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/41 in his last 10 games. For the season, he is batting .286 and is 3rd on the team with 21 homers. Duran is also on a seven-game hitting streak. Rafael Devers leads the Red Sox with 83 RBIs and is 2nd on the team with 28 homers. Tyler O’Neill has 31 homers this season, which is the best mark on the team and 11th in the league.