Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/17/24
At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the favorites on the money line (-141). The Brewers are +120.
Philadelphia leads the NL East with a record of 90-60, while the Brewers are 1st in the NL Central at 87-63.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline +120
This game will be played at American Family Field at 7:40 ET on Tuesday, September 17th.
HOW TO BET THE PHILLIES VS BREWERS:
- We have the Brewers winning by a score of 5 to 4
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Brewers to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over
Despite coming in as the slight underdogs on the road, the Brewers picked up a 6-2 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. Milwaukee’s offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with one run in the 5th and added their final run in the 7th.
Aaron Civale only went five innings for the Brewers but gave up just one run and picked up the win. Ranger Suarez struggled on the mound for the Phillies, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. He took the loss.
Blake Perkins and Brice Turang each had two hits and an RBI for the Brewers’ offense. William Contreras also had a two-hit game and drove in two runs. Joey Ortiz scored twice and drove in two runs while going 1/3.
Phillies Records & Stats
Philadelphia leads the NL East by eight games over the Mets, heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Brewers. The Phillies are 90-60 overall, and they are 27-18 in divisional games. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, and they are just 38-34 on the road this year.
As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 77-45 this year, and they are 13-15 as the underdog. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 27-16-7 and have won two straight series.
The Phillies have been a strong run line bet on the road this season, going 37-35. Their average run margin on the road is +0.4, and they have covered the run line in three straight road games. Overall, they are 72-78 against the run line this season, with an average run margin of +0.8 runs per game.
When the Phillies are on the road, the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. This season, the over/under record for their games is 70-72, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 13-14. Overall, the combined run average in their games is 8.9 runs per game.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers on the road. Wheeler has made 29 starts this season and has a record of 15-6 to go along with an ERA of 2.60. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 23 quality starts and is coming off an outing in which he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. Wheeler has won each of his last three starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.97 strikeouts compared to 2.45 walks. Wheeler’s ERA on the road is 3.66, and he is 5-3 away from home.
Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game (5th) and batting a collective .258 (4th). They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest and are the league’s 3rd ranked home run hitting team. Overall, they are 8th in home runs this season.
Kyle Schwarber has been a big addition to the Phillies lineup this season, as he is 7th in the league with 35 home runs and is also 11th in the league with 96 RBIs. Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have also been key run producers, as Harper has 82 RBIs and Bohm has driven in 89 runs. Harper is also batting .290 for the season and has two homers in his last five games.
Brewers Records & Stats
Milwaukee is 87-63 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL Central. They currently hold a 10-game lead over the Cubs for the division lead. So far, they have gone 30-19 in divisional matchups. The Brewers have taken the first game of their series with the Phillies and have an overall series record of 27-17-4.
At home, the Brewers are 43-29 this season while going 44-34 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee is 50-36 and 37-27 as the underdog. Milwaukee’s overall last 10 games record is 6-4.
When the Brewers win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.6 runs per game. They are 44-20 vs. the run line as an underdog, and they have covered the run line in four straight games as the underdog.
The Milwaukee Brewers are at home today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The O/U line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Brewers games this season is 8.8 runs per game. The Brewers’ O/U record this season is 77-63, and their average O/U line is set at 8 runs per game. When the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs, the Brewers have a record of 22-13. This season, 109 of the Brewers’ games have had O/U lines set higher than 7.5 runs, accounting for 72.7% of their games. Only 6 games have had lower O/U lines than 7.5 runs, making up just 4.0% of their games.
Frankie Montas will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Giants, he went six innings and gave up just two hits. Looking back at his last four outings, Montas has finished with a no-decision, win, loss, and loss. His record for the season is 7-10, and he has an ERA of 4.49. Opposing batters are hitting .231 off Montas this season. Out of his 27 starts, Montas has nine quality starts and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings.
For the season, the Brewers are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the majors. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, the Brewers are batting .250, which is 7th in the league, and are 2nd in the league in walks. Milwaukee also has a good team on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Willy Adames has been a key run producer for the Brewers this season, as his 109 RBIs are 2nd in the league. He is also 9th in the league with 32 home runs. However, he has just a .211 batting average over his last 10 games. William Contreras is batting .281 for the season and has 22 homers, which is 3rd on the team.