The Mean Green and Mustangs are set to face off at 2:00 ET on ESPNU. The Mustangs will host the game at Moody Coliseum in Dallas, TX. This American Athletic conference matchup has an over/under of 127.5 points, and SMU is favored to win by -5.5 at home vs. North Texas.


The Pick: SMU Mustangs -5.5

This game will be played at Moody Coliseum at 2:00 ET on Sunday, February 11th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-67 in favor of the Mustangs.
  • Not only will SMU pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 127.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Will the Mean Green Make it Happen in Dallas?

North Texas heads into this game as a 5.5-point underdog, and they have gone 1-6 in their seven games as the underdog this season. They are currently 13-9 overall, including a 6-4 record in American Athletic Conference play.

On the road, the Mean Green are 4-4 this season, and they have gone 5-5 in their last 10 games away from home. They have gone 3-2 in their last five road games and are coming off a 68-55 win over Tulsa.

North Texas has an ATS record of 12-8 this season and they are 5-3 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Mean Green have gone 4-3 vs. the spread this year. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, North Texas has an ATS mark of 6-4.

North Texas' over/under record for the season sits at 8-11-1, and the average scoring total in their games is 126.7 points. Today's over/under line of 127.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (128.5). Across their last three games, the average scoring total is 132 points, and during their last 10 games, the average scoring total is 126 points. So far, 11 of their games have finished with more points than today's over/under line.

In their recent matchup, the North Texas offense ended with 68 points against Tulsa. They finished with an overall field goal percentage of 44% and made 9 threes. On the offensive front, the Mean Green have a season-long field goal percentage of 43%, ranking 301st nationally. When it comes to three-point shooting, they are ranked 118th in terms of percentage and 146th in three-pointers made.

At present, the Mean Green's defense is nationally ranked 5th, allowing 60.0 points per game. In their previous game vs. Tulsa, the Golden Hurricane finished with a field goal percentage of 37% and a total of 55 points vs. North Texas.

Will SMU Make it Happen at Home?

SMU is the favorite today, as they have been in 16 of their 23 games this season. Their record as the favorite is 14-2, compared to 1-5 as the underdog. At home, the Mustangs have been even better, going 10-2 compared to 5-5 on the road. They have won their last three games and come in with an overall record of 16-7.

At home, SMU has been dominant, going 8-2 in their last 10 games. Their average scoring margin at home is +15.8, compared to +6.7 on the road. Most recently, they defeated Rice by a score of 95-69.

As the favorite, SMU has gone 9-6-1 vs. the spread this season, including a 4-5-1 mark at home and a 1-2 record in their last three home games. Overall, the Mustangs are 12-9-1 vs. the spread this year.

SMU's over/under record this season is 9-13 and today's line of 127.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (143.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 153 points and their OU record over their last 10 games is 6-4.

SMU recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 95 points against Rice. This output exceeded their season average of 76.4 points per game. For the season, the SMU offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 46%. So far, they have hit 52% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 7.3 made three's per contest.

Coming into today's game, the SMU defense is giving up an average of 64.4 points per contest. So far, the SMU defense is giving up an average of 9.8 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11 times per game (497th).