Newsletter

<strong><u>New York</u></strong><strong><u> Mets</u></strong>

The Mets got off to such a hot start last season. Then everything slowly fell apart. The thing about the Mets is that they had one really, really bad month. A 5-21 record in June took a .500 team into a bottom feeder. The Mets played .500 ball in July and August before going 18-10 in September. They actually had a +52 run differential over the last two months of the season.

Add that to a team that made a bunch of upgrades and positive moves over the offseason and we could be looking at a really interesting team. In that month of June, the Mets were inexplicably swept at home by Baltimore, swept by the Cubs, swept by the Dodgers, swept in two-gamers by the Yankees and Braves, and lost series to the Pirates, Marlins, and Rockies. So, the schedule was a mixed bag, but the team was just brutal. The worst part is that only four of the losses were by one run.

That was an outlier, though, so we’ll have to see what the Mets do with a more balanced monthly record this season. Not being able to score at home was a problem. The Mets were outscored 310-274 at Citi Field, which, as you can see, is one of the game’s premier pitcher’s parks. The Mets actually outscored opponents by five runs on the road, but went 40-41. Offensively, this is a team held down by its park factor, which likely leads to some value on the road.

The Mets were 37-28 against teams with losing records, which is what happens when you have a really good rotation. On the flip side, they were 40-57 against teams .500 or better. The Mets were also 16-26 in one-run games, which will improve with Edwin Diaz.

This is a team that will pop up a lot this season in my picks and tips articles.

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<strong><u>Money Line Spots</u></strong>

It can be a challenge to find spots with the Mets. Perception on this team is much higher going into this season. Furthermore, starting pitchers dictate the line and Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard are two of the best. All value we had on Zack Wheeler last season is lost from how he performed. We’ll either have to lay some numbers with the Mets when these three are on the mound or look for spots for guys like Jason Vargas and Steven Matz.

Because the home field advantage for the pitchers is so well-known, lines for JDG, Thor, and Wheeler may be more approachable on the road, especially since the Mets may actually *gasp* give their pitchers some run support there.

I’ll mention Matz and Vargas in the players to watch section, but those may be the guys that we really want to key in on.

The Mets were just 18-24 against lefties last season and have a left-handed-heavy lineup once again. All of the bench options are right-handed, but there aren’t a lot of platoon-worthy bats there. I would think that lefties could pose a problem for the Mets again this season.

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<strong><u>Totals Spots</u></strong>

It will be interesting to see how the totals market shakes out for the Mets. The under was 46-34-1 at Citi Field last season with an average total of just 7.7 runs. Those games averaged just 7.2 runs per contest. Will the offensive upgrades factor into the totals lines at home? If so, then I think we still have under value at Citi Field. If they don’t, and we still see a lot of 7s and 7.5s, I’ll have to wait and see how it plays out.

The Mets were 82-72-8 to the under last season, but I would expect the offensive upgrades to show up on the road. As it is, the Mets scored almost five runs per game away from home last season. I think they could get over that mark this year. Remember that Yoenis Cespedes missed nearly all of last year and Michael Conforto was a bit of a mess for most of the year. While Cespedes is likely to miss most of this season, the Mets added Robinson Cano, have a healthy Conforto, and also have some more depth to the lineup with JD Davis and full-time Dominic Smith/Pete Alonso.

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<strong><u>Individual Players to Watch</u></strong>

<strong>Steven Matz – </strong>Better health and Mickey Callaway fixed Zack Wheeler. Hopefully better health keeps Noah Syndergaard out there. Health has also been a question for Steven Matz. Callaway’s best attribute as a coach is to help maximize pitching talent. Matz has a lot of talent. He was one of the best prospects coming up through this system in an org that had those aforementioned guys.

Matz did see some big strikeout gains from 2017 to 2018. He gave up a few too many homers and walked too many guys, but he made 30 starts and worked 154 innings. Staying healthy was step one. After that, the coaching staff could get to work.

I talked about the Mets’ resurgence to finish strong in September. Matz finished strong. He posted a 2.44/3.77/3.50 pitcher slash over his final 44.1 innings with 51 strikeouts. Home runs were still an issue, which is weird because of his home park, but he increased his slider usage to increase that K rate. With a 3.97 ERA, a 4.62 FIP, and a 4.13 xFIP, I can’t see the market being in love with Matz, but I see a really good pitcher bubbling just below the surface.

<strong>Jason Vargas</strong> – Vargas only managed 92 innings over his 20 starts, which is concerning, but he, like Matz, finished the year on a high note. Over his final eight starts, Vargas worked 44.2 innings with a 41/10 K/BB ratio. He posted a 2.62 ERA with a 3.88 FIP and a 3.72 xFIP. If we take away his one bad outing against the Dodgers, things look even better.

Perhaps Vargas is a four-inning or five-and-fly guy to be piggybacked by Robert Gsellman or Seth Lugo. Perhaps he just wasn’t healthy early in the year and the Mets were limiting his innings. Whatever the case, he had a 5.77 ERA and a 5.02 FIP last season, so he won’t be on the radars of too many bettors.

New York Mets 2019 MLB Season Betting Tips

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<p>Making on a bet on this NCAA game featuring the Shockers versus the Flames? Tip off is at at 9:00 ET, and you can watch it all unfold on ESPNU. The game will be played at The HTC Center in Conway, SC. The odds for this non-conference game currently have the Flames as the betting favorite with the over/under line sitting at 141.5 points.</p><h3>WICHITA STATE SHOCKERS VS LIBERTY FLAMES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Liberty Flames -3.5</p><p>This game will be played at The HTC Center at 9:00 ET on Friday, November 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE LIBERTY FLAMES:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-66 in favor of the Flames.</li><li>Not only will Liberty pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -3.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 141.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Is A Road Victory Likely for Underdog Wichita State?</h3><p>Today, Wichita State will face Liberty in their fourth game of the season. So far, they have a perfect 3-0 record. In their last five road games, including those from last year, Wichita State has gone 3-2. Leading into today's game, Wichita State holds a 2-1 ATS record. Taking into account their previous ten games, including those from last season, Wichita State has gone 5-3-1 ATS.</p><p>In three games, Wichita State comes in with an over/under mark of 1-2-0, with their games averaging 143.3 points per game. In the Shockers' last five games, the combined scoring average stands at 80 points per game, accompanied by an over/under record of 2-2.</p><p>Coming off a good offensive performance, Wichita State's offense scored 86 points against Coastal Carolina. Their field goal percentage for the game was 45.1%, and they went 10/14 from the free-throw line. Offensively, the Shockers hold a season-long field goal percentage of 47%, placing them 128th in the national rankings. When it comes to three-pointers, they are ranked 197th in terms of percentage and 208th in three-pointers made.</p><p>In the current season, the Wichita State defense has excelled, sitting 48th in the nation by allowing 65.5 points per game. In their most recent game, the Wichita State defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Coastal Carolina knocked down 10 three-pointers on their way to 77 points.</p><h3>Can the Flames Pull Out the Win as Home Favorites?</h3><p>The Wichita State Shockers, who are taking on Wichita State, currently have a 2-0 record. Thus far, all of their games have been played at home. Looking at Liberty's ATS performance, they have a current ATS record of 2-0 entering today's game. In their previous ten games, including those from the previous season, Liberty holds a solid ATS record of 7-2.</p><p>So far, Liberty's games have averaged 146 points per game with the average over/under line being 135.8 points. The Flames' last five games have culminated with an average of 80 points per game and an over/under record of 2-1-1.</p><p>In their most recent game, the Flames' offense tallied 88 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 87.3 points per game. Leading Liberty in scoring vs. Furman was Kyle Rode with his 19 points. Brody Peebles also added 16 points for the Flames.</p><p>So far, the Flames' defense is ranked 22nd in the country at 58.7 points per contest. In today's game vs. Wichita State, the Liberty defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Liberty made 17 free-throws vs. the Flames.</p>

Wichita State Shockers vs Liberty Flames Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/23

<p>At 4:00 ET, this Colorado Buffaloes vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders matchup will be played at Jones AT&T Stadium in Lubbock. FOX is handling the broadcast as these two teams come in with identical 6-3 records. Colorado is the -3.5-point favorite on the road, with the over/under line sitting at 62.5 points. The money line odds are -167 for Colorado and +139 for Texas Tech.</p><h3>COLORADO BUFFALOES VS TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders +3.5</p><p>This game will be played at Jones AT&T Stadium at 4:00 ET on Saturday, November 9th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Texas Tech Red Raiders winning this one by a score of 32 to 28</li><li>Not only do we have the Texas Tech Red Raiders winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3.5</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 62.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Colorado Buffaloes Win As Road Favorites?</h3><p>Colorado heads into Week 11 with a 6-2 record and a 23rd-place spot in our power rankings. They are 100% bowl-eligible and have a 19.9% chance of winning the Big 12. The Buffaloes also have the 18th-best odds of making the CFB playoff at 14%.</p> <p></p><p>Against the spread, Colorado is 5-1 this season, with a +9.4 average scoring margin. They’ve covered in all two games as favorites and are 3-1 ATS as underdogs.</p> <p></p><p>This week’s over/under line is 62.5 points, the highest for Colorado this season. Their average O/U line is 56.8 points, and their over/under record is 2-3-1, with their games averaging 53.4 points.</p><p>Colorado’s offense is ranked 19th in our power rankings heading into week 11, and they are 34th in points per game, scoring 31.4. Their passing game is their strength, ranking 11th in passing yards per game with 323.9, and they are 9th in completions, averaging 27.5 per game. They are 26th in passing attempts per game. Colorado is 2nd in the nation in completion percentage, connecting on 72.6% of their passes, and they are 23rd in third-down conversions, converting 45.8% of their attempts. They are 10th in passer rating.</p> <p>Shedeur Sanders leads the Buffaloes with 2,591 passing yards and a passer rating of 114. He has completed 73.3% of his passes, throwing 21 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. On the ground, Colorado ranks 125th in rushing yards per game, averaging 82.2. Isaiah Augustave leads the team with 271 rushing yards. Travis Hunter has 60 receptions for 757 yards and 8 touchdowns.</p><p>Colorado's defense, ranked 26th nationally, is allowing 22 points per game this season. In their recent game, they gave up 23 points to Cincinnati, allowing 351 total yards, including 171 rushing yards and 180 passing yards.</p> <p></p><p>Opponents are averaging 156 rushing yards and 209.2 passing yards per game against Colorado. Quarterbacks have completed 63.3% of their passes, with a passer rating of 92.5 when facing Colorado’s defense.</p><h3>Are The Texas Tech Red Raiders Going Win In At Upset At Jones AT&T Stadium</h3><p>Texas Tech enters Week 11 with a 6-3 record, hosting Colorado. They are 3-1 at home and 2-2 on the road this season. The Red Raiders have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible but only a 4.3% chance of winning the Big 12, according to projections.</p> <p></p><p>Against the spread, Texas Tech is 5-2-1, with a +2 average scoring margin. They are 3-0 ATS as underdogs and 2-2-1 as favorites. At home, they are 2-1-1 ATS, and their road ATS record is 3-1.</p> <p></p><p>The over/under line for this week is 62.5 points. Texas Tech’s games have averaged 70.9 points, with an average line of 61.8 points. Their over/under record is 4-4 this season.</p><p>Texas Tech’s offense ranks 17th in points per game, averaging 36.4, heading into week 11. They are 15th in passing yards, with 282.4 per game, and 4th in passing attempts, averaging 40.7 per game. They are 7th in completions, with 25.2 per game, and are ranked 53rd in our offensive power rankings.</p> <p>Behren Morton leads the Red Raiders with 2,300 passing yards and 19 touchdowns, with five interceptions. His passer rating is 95. Tahj Brooks has rushed for 1,047 yards and 10 touchdowns, averaging 5 yards per carry. Josh Kelly leads the receivers with 736 yards and five touchdowns on 68 catches.</p><p>Texas Tech's defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 34.4 points per game. They rank 174th in passing yards allowed, giving up 307.2 yards per game through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 61% of their passes and have a passer rating of 91.4 against the Red Raiders.</p> <p></p><p>In their recent game against Iowa State, Texas Tech's defense allowed 22 points but managed to hold the Cyclones to 133 rushing yards on 38 attempts. Iowa State threw for 299 yards, but Texas Tech’s defense also came up with an interception in the game.</p>

Colorado Buffaloes vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Pick & Prediction 11/9/24

<p>Planning on watching today's Catamounts and Billikens game? Catch the action at The HTC Center in Conway, SC, as the Billikens hosts this showdown at 12:00 ET on ESPN2. In this non-conference matchup, the Catamounts are the betting favorite against the Billikens. The over/under for the game is 142.5 points.</p><h3>VERMONT CATAMOUNTS VS SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Saint Louis Billikens +1</p><p>This game will be played at The HTC Center at 12:00 ET on Friday, November 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE SAINT LOUIS BILLIKENS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-68 in favor of the Billikens.</li><li>Not only will Saint Louis pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +1.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 142.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 141 points.</li></ul><h3>Can Vermont Pull Off a Road Win?</h3><p>Vermont is undefeated in their first two games of the season. In the three previous games where they were favored, they were also victorious. Looking at Vermont's ATS performance thus far, they have a 1-1 record. As for today's game, it marks their first road contest of the season. In the previous year, Vermont went 9-9 vs. the spread when playing away from home.</p><p>Vermont comes in with an over/under record of 0-2-0 through two games, with their games averaging a combined 129.5 points per game so far. When analyzing the Catamounts' last five games, they have produced a combined average of 73 points per game and an over/under record of 0-4.</p><p>In their most recent game, the Catamounts' offense tallied 73 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 77.3 points per game. For the season, the Vermont offense has been one of the more efficient shooting teams in the NCAA with a field goal percentage of 48%. So far, they have hit 58% of their looks from inside the arc, and are averaging 9.7 made three's per contest.</p><p>At this time, the Catamounts' defense is positioned 9th in the country, permitting 53.3 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Vermont's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 26.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 11.0% this season.</p><h3>Does Saint Louis Stand a Chance at Home?</h3><p>After three games, Saint Louis has a perfect 3-0 record. In their last three home games, which includes last year, Saint Louis has a home record of 1-2. As of today's game, Saint Louis holds a 2-1 record against the spread. Taking into account their performance in the previous season, Saint Louis has gone 5-4 vs. the spread in their last ten games.</p><p>So far, Saint Louis' games have averaged 145.7 points per game with the average over/under line being 149 points. Over the course of the last five games, the Billikens' games have averaged 80 points per game, along with an over/under record of 1-3.</p><p>In their recent game, the Billikens' offense concluded with 79 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 84 points per contest. In terms of three-point shooting, the Billikens offense has been good from outside, hitting 40% of their three-pointers on an average of 20 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 46%.</p><p>At present, the Billikens' defense is nationally ranked 56th, allowing 67.2 points per game. In their previous game vs. Wyoming, the Cowboys finished with a field goal percentage of 35% and a total of 69 points vs. Saint Louis.</p>

Vermont Catamounts vs Saint Louis Billikens Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/23

<p>At 7:15 PM from Oracle Park in San Francisco, we have an NL matchup between the Reds and Giants. Heading into Saturday's game, the Reds are 17-21, and the Giants are 17-23. Nick Lodolo gets the start for the Reds, and he is facing off against Mason Black for the Giants.</p>

<p>Cincinnati is the favorite on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs. FOX is handling TV coverage for tonight's game.</p><h3>SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS CINCINNATI REDS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline -105</p><p>This game will be played at Oracle Park at 7:15 ET on Saturday, May 11th.</p><h3>HOW TO BET THE REDS VS GIANTS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Giants winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>If you're looking for a run line pick, we also like the Giants to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul><p>The most recent game o of this Reds vs Giants series came right down to the end, as the Reds picked up a 4-2 win on the road. Heading into the game, they were at +121 on the money line.</p>

<p>Cincinnati's offense got off to a fast start in the game, scoring one run in the first and adding three more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Giants got on the board with one run in the 4th and added their final run in the 5th.</p>

<p>Logan Webb started for the Giants and went seven innings, giving up two earned runs on eight hits. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued two walks. Andrew Abbott got the start for the Reds, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on six hits.</p><h3>Reds Records & Stats</h3><p>Cincinnati is 17-21 overall and trails the Brewers by six games in the NL Central. So far, they are 1-2 in divisional games. The Reds have lost eight of their last ten games and have taken a four-game losing streak in series into today's game.</p>

<p>At home, the Reds are 9-13 and are an even 8-8 on the road. As the favorite, the Reds are 10-9 this year and 7-12 as the underdog. Cincinnati has lost five straight games as the favorite.</p><p>The Reds have been a tough team to gauge on the run line this season, as they are right at .500 overall with an 18-20 record. They have been much better on the run line on the road, going 10-6 compared to just 8-14 at home. They have been favored in 19 games this season and have gone 9-10 on the run line in those contests.</p><p>The Reds have played 29 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and the over/under record in those games is 18-18. The average over/under line in their games this season is 9 runs, and their combined run average is 8.7 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 2-4.</p><p>Nick Lodolo is getting the start for the Reds on the road against the Giants. Lodolo is coming off a start in which he took the loss but still struck out 6 batters. In his first outing of the season, he picked up the win vs. the Padres, striking out 11 in 7 innings.</p><p>Elly De La Cruz has been a bright spot for the Reds this season, batting .271 with a team-high eight home runs. His 20 RBIs are also 2nd on the team and 14th in the league. Spencer Steer has been a solid run producer for the Reds, as his 27 RBIs are 7th in the league, and he has four homers to go along with a batting average of .246.</p>

<p>Jeimer Candelario has been better of late for the Reds, going 6/22 in his last six games with a home run. However, for the season, he is batting just .209. The Reds will need him to pick things up, as he is 2nd on the team with four homers.</p><h3>Giants Records & Stats</h3><p>San Francisco is 4th in the NL West, trailing the Dodgers by nine games. Overall, they are 17-23 and have dropped two straight games. The Giants lost the series opener vs. the Reds, and their record in the NL West is 8-9 this year.</p>

<p>At home, the Giants are 9-8 this season compared to an 8-15 mark on the road. San Francisco has dropped seven of their last ten games overall. As the underdog, the Giants are 5-12 this year, which includes losing four straight as the underdog. When favored, the Giants are 12-11 this year.</p><p>When it comes to betting the run line on the Giants, it's been a mixed bag. They are 18-22 against the run line overall, but they've been better on the road (12-11) than at home (6-11). They've been a better bet as the underdog (10-7) than as the favorite (8-15). Their average run differential is -1.1 runs per game, and they've been outscored by an average of 1.4 runs per game on the road and 0.7 runs per game at home.</p><p>The Giants have had 23 games with higher over/under lines than today's 7.5, and their games have averaged 8.5 runs per game. Their over/under record is 18-20, and they are 7-6 when the line is set at 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8 runs per game, and their last game against the Reds went under the 7-run line.</p><p>Mason Black and the Giants will be hosting the Reds today. Black is coming off a rough outing in his first start of the season, as he took the loss against the Phillies. In that game, he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up 5 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks. He did strike out 4 batters.</p><p>Michael Conforto and Thairo Estrada have been two of the Giants' most consistent hitters this season, with Conforto batting .277 and Estrada at .248. Conforto has been hot of late, going 10/25 in his last seven games with two homers. Estrada has also been swinging a good bat, going 10/32 in his last eight games. Estrada's 21 RBIs is the best mark on the team and 13th in the league.</p>

<p>As a team, the Giants are averaging just 3.7 runs per game, which is 25th in the league. They have been even worse at home, averaging only 3.3 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .240, which is 13th in the MLB.</p>

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Prediction 5/11/24

<p>The Mean Green and Tigers are set to face off at 11:30 ET on ESPNU. The Tigers will host the game at TD Arena in Charleston, SC. The over/under goal line for this matchup is currently at 129.5 points, and the Tigers are favored to win at home against the Mean Green.</p><h3>NORTH TEXAS MEAN GREEN VS LSU TIGERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: LSU Tigers -2.5</p><p>This game will be played at TD Arena at 11:30 ET on Friday, November 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE LSU TIGERS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-70 in favor of the Tigers.</li><li>Not only will LSU pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 129.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the Mean Green Pull Off a Road Win?</h3><p>North Texas comes into this game with an overall record of 2-1, having played three games so far. Over their last ten road games, including those from last year, North Texas has gone 8-2. As North Texas enters today's game, their ATS record stands at 1-2. Looking back at their previous ten games, including those from the previous season, North Texas has gone 7-3 vs. the spread.</p><p>In three games, North Texas comes in with an over/under mark of 2-1-0, with their games averaging 134.7 points per game. The Mean Green have seen their last five games conclude with a collective average of 66 points per game and an over/under record of 3-2.</p><p>The North Texas offense is coming off a game where they scored 52 points against St. John's. They posted a field goal percentage of 32.7% and connected on 6 threes. Leading North Texas in scoring vs. St. John's was Aaron Scott with his 13 points. Jason Edwards also added 9 points for the Mean Green.</p><p>At this time, the Mean Green's defense is positioned 44th in the country, permitting 64.7 points per game. So far, the North Texas defense is giving up an average of 9.7 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 11.3 times per game (312nd).</p><h3>Will the Tigers Live Up to Expectations at Home?</h3><p>So far this season, LSU has played three games and have a record of 1-2. All of their games have been at home. In terms of LSU's performance against the spread, they come into today's game with a 1-2 record. Over their previous ten games, including those from last season, LSU has gone 3-7 vs. the spread.</p><p>Through three games, LSU has an over/under record of 2-1-0 with their games averaging a combined 145.7 points per game so far. Over the course of the last five games, the Tigers' games have averaged 79 points per game, along with an over/under record of 4-1.</p><p>Against Dayton, the LSU had a tough time putting up points compared to their season average of 79.7 points per game. They scored 67 points and posted a field goal percentage of 53.1% in the game. The team's top scorer is Will Baker, who enters today's matchup with an average of 13.7, while Jalen Reed also carries a PPG average of 12.7 into the game.</p><p>At present, the Tigers' defense is nationally ranked 50th, allowing 66.0 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, LSU's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 40.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 37.5% this season.</p>

North Texas Mean Green vs LSU Tigers Betting Pick & Prediction 11/17/23

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