New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick & Prediction 7/5/24

From PNC Park in Pittsburgh, the Mets and Pirates face off in an NL matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET. The forecast in Pittsburgh calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 80s.

New York comes in with a record of 42-43 and will be looking to end a two-game losing streak. The Pirates are favored on the money line (-126) and are 4th in the NL Central with a record of 41-45. Luis Severino will start for the Mets, while the Pirates are set to go with Paul Skene.

NEW YORK METS VS PITTSBURGH PIRATES BETTING PICK

The Pick: New York Mets Moneyline +107

This game will be played at PNC Park at 6:40 ET on Friday, July 5th.

HOW TO BET THE METS VS PIRATES:

• We have the Mets winning by a score of 5 to 4
• If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Mets to cover
• As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over

Mets Records & Stats

New York closed out their series vs. the Nationals with a 1-0 loss on the road. This was especially tough, as they were the slight favorite at -112 on the money line. The Mets wasted a good start from Jose Quintana, who went seven innings, and didn’t give up a run. They also got a solid defensive performance, as the Nationals only had one run, but it was enough to pick up the win.

Adrian Houser took the loss out of the bullpen for the Mets. New York’s offense also struggled, as they only had one fewer hit than the Nationals but didn’t score a run. The Mets’ lone hit was a single from Jose Peraza.

New York is 42-43 overall, and they are looking to get back to .500 today, as they have lost two straight games. The Mets are 14.0 games behind the Phillies in the NL East and are 3rd in the division. So far, they have gone 13-12 in divisional games.

The Mets have been good as the road underdog this year, going 13-10 in that role. They are also 21-18 as the road team overall. New York has been tough to beat as the underdog lately, as they have won seven straight as the underdog. Their overall series record is 13-13-4, and they split their most recent series with the Nationals.

When the Mets are on the road, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 23-16. They have covered the run line in seven straight games as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.5, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.

Today’s over/under line for the New York Mets game against the Pittsburgh Pirates is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have played in 54 games with higher over/under lines this season, which accounts for 63.5% of their games. Their games have averaged 9.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 45-37 on the season.

Luis Severino gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Pirates on the road. So far this season, he has made 16 starts and has a record of 5-2 with a 3.42 ERA. Opponents are batting .219 off Severino this year, and he has a total of seven quality starts. In his last outing, Severino finished with a no-decision, giving up four earned runs in seven innings of work. Before that, he had not allowed more than one earned run in four straight outings. The right-hander has been solid on the road, coming in with a record of 2-1 and 4.27 ERA.

As a team, the Mets are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 6th in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.7 runs per game. New York has been one of the league’s top home run hitting teams this season, and they also have a strong team slugging percentage and OPS.

Francisco Lindor has been swinging the bat well of late, going 13/46 in his last 10 games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .246 with 15 home runs. Pete Alonso has also been a big power threat, as he is 8th in the league with 18 homers and has driven in 48 runs. Alonso is batting just .242 for the season.

Pirates Records & Stats

The Pirates will be looking to get back on track after they closed out their series vs. the Cardinals with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Cardinals scored two runs in the top of the 10th. Pittsburgh was the -108 favorite at home going into the game.

Martin Perez was excellent for the Pirates, going 7 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Pirates couldn’t close things out, and Dennis Santana took the loss out of the bullpen. The Pirates also wasted a big game from Bryan Reynolds, who homered in the 1st inning, going 1/4.

Pittsburgh will open their series vs. the Mets with an overall record of 41-45, putting them 4th in the NL Central. The Pirates trail the Brewers by 10 games in the division and are 13-13 in divisional matchups. The Pirates are just a half-game behind the Reds for 3rd place in the division and have a 2.0 game lead on the Cubs.

The Pirates lost two of three in their series vs. the Cardinals, and they are just 4-6 across their last 10 games. So far, they have been just below .500 both at home (20-22) and on the road (21-23). As the favorite, the Pirates are 16-19 this year and 25-26 as the underdog. Pittsburgh’s overall series record is 11-13-4, and they have dropped two straight series.

When the Pirates win, they win big, with an average run margin of 3.0 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.5 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 46-40, and they have been a better bet on the road, where they are 26-18 vs. the run line. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 35-16 vs. the run line, compared to 11-24 as the favorite. Their overall run differential is -0.4 runs per game.

When the Pittsburgh Pirates play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. On the season, the Pirates and their opponents have averaged 8.4 runs per game, and their over/under record is 40-45. The average over/under line for their games is 8 runs, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the Pirates have gone 5-11 in those contests. Overall, 73.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, with only 8.1% of their games having lower lines.

Through nine starts, Paul Skenes has a record of 4-0 and an ERA of 2.06 for the Pirates. He has made seven quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he allowed just one earned run in six innings of work. In that start vs. the Braves, he gave up six hits, two walks, and one homer. Skenes has not taken a loss since May 26th. The right-hander has been especially tough on the road, with an ERA of 1.12 compared to 3.29 at home.

The Pirates offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 24th in the MLB. They have been even worse at home, averaging just 3.8 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .228, which is 20th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .296 is also near the bottom of the league.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ best hitter this season, as he is batting .273 with a team-high 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. Oneil Cruz and Andrew McCutchen are also near the top of the team’s home run leaderboard, but both are batting below .240 for the season. Rowdy Tellez has been hot of late, batting .360 over his last eight games.