New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick & Prediction 10/5/24
At 4:08 PM ET, the Mets and Phillies square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the Phillies are favored on the money line at -185 compared to the Mets at +158. The over/under line is currently at 7 runs.
New York will be starting Kodai Senga, while the Phillies are sending Zack Wheeler to the mound. The Mets are 2nd in the NL East with a record of 89-73, while the Phillies are 1st at 95-67.
NEW YORK METS VS PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 7 Runs
This game will be played at Citizens Bank Park at 4:08 ET on Saturday, October 5th.
HOW TO BET THE METS VS PHILLIES:
- We have the Phillies winning by a score of 5 to 3
- If you’re looking for a run line pick, we also like the Phillies to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 8 runs and like the over
Mets Records & Stats
Pete Alonso and the Mets are coming off a big 4-2 win over the Brewers to close out their series. Alonso got the Mets on the board with a homer in the 1st inning and went 1/4 with three RBIs. The Mets added another run in the 3rd to take a 2-0 lead. The Brewers scored their only two runs in the 7th.
Jose Quintana put together a good start for the Mets, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out five Brewers batters. Edwin Diaz got the save, and David Peterson closed things out in the 9th.
As the Mets prepare to open their NL Divisional Round series against the Phillies, they’ll be on the road, where they went 43-38 during the regular season, compared to a 46-35 mark at home. New York posted a 59-39 record as favorites this year, while going 32-35 as underdogs.
On the run line, the Mets finished the season 84-81 overall, including 46-38 on the road. As underdogs, they went 39-28 against the run line. Their games averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under line is set at 7 runs. New York’s over/under record for the year is 83-77.
Kodai Senga is on the road to take on the Phillies in his second start of the season. In his first start, he picked up a win vs. the Braves, going 5 1/3 innings and striking out 9. He did give up a pair of home runs in that outing.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, as Alonso’s 34 homers are the best mark on the team and 10th in the league, while Lindor has 33 homers and a team-leading 91 RBIs. Lindor is batting .273 for the season and has gone 8/26 in his last seven games. Alonso has gone just 4/21 in his last seven games and is batting .240 for the season.
Brandon Nimmo comes into the game on a six-game hitting streak but has gone just 8/42 in his last 10 games. Over this stretch, he has two homers and five RBIs. Lindor and Mark Vientos have also gone deep twice in their last 10 games.
Phillies Records & Stats
The Phillies’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Nationals, closing out their series with a 6-3 win. After allowing one run to the Nationals in the bottom of the first, the Phillies responded with two runs of their own. Philadelphia went on to add another two runs in the 5th inning.
Aaron Nola got the start for the Phillies, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on nine hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.
As the Phillies prepare to host the Mets in game one of their NL Divisional Round series, they’ll look to build on their impressive 54-27 home record. Philadelphia went 41-40 on the road this season and finished the regular season with an overall record of 95-67. As home favorites, the Phillies posted a 53-24 mark.
Philadelphia’s games have averaged 9 runs this season, while today’s over/under line is set at 7 runs. Their over/under record is 78-75, and 91.4% of their games have had higher totals than today’s line. The Phillies have a run line record of 78-84.
Zack Wheeler is getting the start for the Phillies today and comes in with a record of 16-7 and an ERA of 2.56. So far this season, he has made 32 starts, and opponents are batting .188 off the right-hander. Wheeler has made 26 quality starts this year and is averaging 10.08 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Wheeler finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Wheeler has been much better on the road this year, coming in with a record of 6-4 and an ERA of 3.39 compared to 10-3 with a 2.56 ERA at home.
As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 4th best hitting team, with a team batting average of .257. The Phillies also come into the game with a good team on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Over his last six games, Kyle Schwarber has gone just 5/23, but two of those hits have been home runs. For the season, he is 6th in the league with 38 homers. Nick Castellanos has been hot of late, going 8/16 in his last six games. He also has one home run in this stretch. Bryce Harper is 2nd on the team with 30 homers and is batting .285 for the season.