New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Betting Pick & Prediction 12/22/24
The Patriots are +652 on the money line as they face the Bills in a week 16 AFC East matchup. The Bills are -999 on the money line and are favored by -14 points. The game, which is being played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY, is scheduled for 4:25 ET, and CBS is handling the television coverage. The over/under line is set at 46.5 points.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS BUFFALO BILLS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Buffalo Bills -14
This game will be played at Highmark Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 22nd.
WHY BET THE BUFFALO BILLS:
- We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 31 to 13
- Not only do we have the Bills winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -14
- We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points
Will The Patriots Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs
With their playoff chances now at 0.0%, the Patriots rank 26th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 16. New England has lost four straight games, including a 30-17 defeat to the Cardinals in week 15. The Patriots were +6 underdogs in that matchup but couldn’t cover the spread, bringing their ATS record to 5-8-1 this season. They’ve been underdogs in all of their games so far, and their average scoring margin is -7.1 points per game.
New England’s O/U record stands at 9-5, with the over hitting in each of their last four games. Their games have averaged 41.1 points this season, while the O/U line has averaged 40.9 points.
Heading into week 16, the Patriots rank 26th in our offensive power rankings. They are 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 17, and 29th in yards per game with 292.4. New England is 19th in passing attempts but ranks last in passing yards per game, averaging 173.1. On the ground, they are 18th in rushing attempts and 13th in rushing yards per game, with 119.3. The Patriots are 27th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage, converting 34.3% of their attempts, but they rank 9th in red zone conversion percentage.
Drake Maye threw for 202 yards on 19/23 passing in week 15, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Rhamondre Stevenson led the team with 69 rushing yards on 13 carries, and Kendrick Bourne had 3 receptions for 44 yards. The Patriots struggled on 3rd down, failing to convert any of their 6 attempts, but they scored on 2 of their 3 red zone trips. New England scored 14 points in the 4th quarter after being held to just 3 points in the first 3 quarters.
In their 30-17 loss to the Cardinals, the Patriots’ defense allowed Arizona to convert 66.7% of their third down attempts. They also gave up 163 rushing yards on 32 attempts, with a 5.1 average. Despite not allowing any passing touchdowns, the Patriots allowed Arizona to complete 78.1% of their passes for 232 yards.
New England’s defense struggled to pressure the quarterback, finishing with no sacks and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. Overall, the Patriots allowed 395 total yards in the game.
Are The Bills Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?
With an 11-3 record, the Bills sit atop the AFC East and rank 2nd in our NFL power rankings. Our projections give Buffalo a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. The Bills are 6-0 at home and 5-3 on the road, including a 48-42 win over the Lions in week 15. They were 2.5-point underdogs in that game, but they came out on top in a high-scoring affair, with the teams combining for 90 points.
Buffalo has an average scoring margin of +9.6 points per game and is 9-5 against the spread this season. They are 7-3 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in their last two games.
We have the Bills sitting atop our offensive power rankings heading into week 16. They are 2nd in the NFL in points per game, averaging 31.8, and 7th in passing yards per game with 238.8, despite ranking 20th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 130.8 rushing yards per game, which ranks 8th, on 28.3 attempts per game. Buffalo is 8th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and leads the NFL in red zone attempts, although they are 31st in red zone conversion percentage.
Josh Allen has been on fire, posting a passer rating of 122 in week 15, with 362 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Lions. He hasn’t thrown an interception or been sacked in his last 3 games. James Cook rushed for 105 yards on 14 carries in week 15, and Ty Johnson led the team in receiving with 5 catches for 114 yards.
Despite allowing 473 passing yards, the Bills’ defense gave up just 48 yards on the ground in their 48-42 win over the Lions. Buffalo’s defense was tested with 15 rushing attempts and still managed to limit them to 3.2 yards per attempt. The Bills’ pass rush was effective, recording three sacks and winning the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials.
Buffalo did allow five passing touchdowns and the Lions to convert on 46.2% of their third downs. The Bills’ defense will look to improve in defending the pass in their next game.