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There are a lot of ways to interpret Game 1 between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks. We won’t see another 5-of-31 performance from three in this series from the Bucks. On the other hand, we won’t see Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combine to go 8-of-37. The Bucks prevailed 109-107 in overtime in a weird game with a lot of fluky occurrences.

That leaves us wondering what the two teams have in store for Game 2 on Monday night. Milwaukee is -4.5 at <strong><a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bookmaker/">Bookmaker Sportsbook</a></strong> with a total of 222.5. Game 1 had a line of 5.5 and a total of 227. Adjustments have been made in the betting markets, but have the adjustments been too big in nature? Let’s evaluate.
<h2><strong><u>Miami Heat</u></strong></h2>
The reality of the situation is that the Heat should be happy about what transpired in Game 1. They failed to come away with the win, but likely saw the worst performance that they are going to see from Jimmy Butler, who did send the game to overtime with a layup at the horn, but it was one of only four makes for him in the game. He was 4-of-22 shooting, but did manage 17 points on the strength of seven free throws.

The Heat only shot 36.4% from the floor overall, as they were just 16-of-49 on two-point shots. Miami did sink 20 three-pointers in 50 attempts, though, which was a huge 3P Rate for them. During the regular season, 43.2% of their field goal attempts were threes, but they cranked it up to north of 50% in Game 1.

It worked, but also a team that shot under 36% from three shot 40% in Game 1 and it still wasn’t enough. Goran Dragic had 25 off the bench in the losing effort and Duncan Robinson, a 40.8% three-point shooter, was 7-of-13 beyond the arc. Butler and Adebayo were bad. Dragic and Robinson were good. It was nice to see some secondary scoring from the Heat, but their primary guys simply have to be better.

That would be the focus heading into Game 2. It seems clear that Miami is going to try to shoot over the top of the Milwaukee defense. It is far from a bad approach. The Bucks were 29th in 3P% defense at 38.4% during the regular season and surrendered the 40% rate in Game 1. Miami just needs Butler and Adebayo to be more involved in the fun.
<h2><strong><u>Milwaukee Bucks</u></strong></h2>
The Bucks got lucky to win Game 1, but some of the things that happened likely won’t be seen again. For example, Milwaukee was 5-of-31 from three. That means that Miami outscored Milwaukee by 45 points on three-point shots and still lost the game. The Bucks also left 13 points out there at the free throw line, including a 6-of-13 performance from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who had 26 points, but it was an ugly 26 points. Giannis was a 68.5% free throw shooter during the regular season.

The Bucks were fourth in 3P% during the regular season at 38.9%, so their Game 1 performance was truly a significant outlier. In fact, the Bucks were 15 spots higher than the Heat in terms of 3P%, but got outscored 60-15 on threes. Yeah, that probably won’t happen again. Only three players for the Bucks hit a trey. Six different Heat players made a three.

Milwaukee had 12 fast-break points to just two for Miami. That means that the Heat aren’t going to get a lot of easy buckets. They’ll have to work for everything that they get and that means sharing the ball around the perimeter quite a bit. Milwaukee missed a bunch of shots and still wound up with a significant edge on the glass.

The Bucks do have a weakness at defending corner threes and Miami exploited it in Game 1. It’ll be interesting to see how much Milwaukee adjusts to sell out on the perimeter. Opponents made nearly 45% of their corner threes against the Bucks. That was a shot that Miami took a lot during the season, but shot only 36.1% on, which ranked 26th.
<h2><strong><u>Heat vs. Bucks Free Pick</u></strong></h2>
The line moving down on this game is an overreaction to what we saw in Game 1. The Bucks may have only won by two, but a lot of outliers took place in this game that should even out in Milwaukee’s favor on Monday night. The number of -4.5 is too low as far as I’m concerned.

<strong>Pick: Milwaukee Bucks</strong>

Heat vs. Bucks Game 2 Free Pick - 05/24/21

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Staggered start times once again mean hockey all day with the NHL Playoffs on Sunday May 23. We’ve got a lot to look forward to on the ice, as a couple of series could come to a close. Colorado is up 3-0 on St. Louis and Boston is up 3-1 on Washington. That Bruins/Capitals game will actually be the one in the spotlight with this preview, as Washington looks to avoid elimination.

The Bruins are favored in the -130 range at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline/">BetOnline Sportsbook</a> with a total of 5.5 for Game 5 on Sunday. Washington will be in the cornered rat spot of staring down the barrel of the offseason. A loss will send Washington to the golf course and send Boston on to the second round. Will that be enough for the Capitals to play at their best and extend the series?

Let’s take a look at this one and see which side or which part of the total to take.
<h2><strong><u>Boston Bruins</u></strong></h2>
The Bruins were simply dominant in Game 4. They had 1.93 xGF at 5-v-5 to just 0.67 xGF for Washington. Even though Boston only won the game 1-0 at full strength and had to rely on special teams goals for the 4-1 victory, the Bruins were clearly and decidedly the better team at the most common game state.

Boston had nine high-danger scoring chances to just one for Washington. One of the concerns for the Capitals after the first two games of the series was how they would do on the road because Boston had the last line change and got the preferred matchups. In Game 3, it wasn’t as big of a deal and Washington took the game to overtime before losing in overtime.

In Game 4, however, Boston completely controlled the play. It was a dominant performance and one where Samsonov actually kept Washington in the game for as long as possible. The Capitals just didn’t reciprocate. Boston goes into Game 4 holding all of the cards. The high hit on Kevan Miller from Dmitry Orlov did leave Boston a defenseman short, but also felt like a turning point in the series.

The Capitals were more about trying to get revenge and push around the Bruins than scoring goals. The game got chippy. The game got physical. That’s what Boston wants. Washington is more of a finesse team. If the Bruins can make Game 5 play out in a similar way, they should be able to finish off the series.

It doesn’t hurt to have Tuukka Rask as the last line of defense. Rask has allowed just nine goals in four games in this series with a 1.99 GAA and a .930 SV%. The Bruins had no questions in net coming intot he season and it has been evident thus far.
<h2><strong><u>Washington Capitals</u></strong></h2>
The Capitals will go down swinging. The question is whether it happens on the scoreboard or with their style of play. Boston got under Washington’s skin in a big way in Game 4. Hits were being thrown all over the place and the Capitals seemed more focused on inflicting punishment than getting even in the series. A three-goal third from Boston sealed a home sweep for the Bruins and now the Capitals go back home one game from elimination.

The Capitals simply have to find a way to generate more offense. Washington trails by 20 in high-danger scoring chances, which is not what you would expect to see from a team that ranked 13th in that department during the regular season. Washington was actually +53 in high-danger chance differential. Boston was only +7, but the Bruins allowed the sixth-fewest high-danger chances.

Washington has to get more pucks to the net from high-percentage scoring areas, which is easier said than done. A fundamental change needs to take place in Game 5, otherwise Washington will see the season end. Maybe we should have seen this coming, as for all of Washington’s talent, ranking 19th in scoring chances at 5-v-5 isn’t good enough.

It does sting that Washington has already played three goaltenders in this series. Vitek Vanacek only made it 13 minutes and 10 seconds into Game 1 before leaving hurt. Craig Anderson started Game 2 and stopped 44 of 48 shots. He stopped 21 of 22 in Game 1. Anderson did not start Game 3 and that put Ilya Samsonov into the fire. Samsonov has allowed seven goals on 80 shots, so he hasn’t been the problem, but with how Washington has played offensively, his margin for error is limited.
<h2><strong><u>Capitals vs. Bruins Free Pick</u></strong></h2>
In this one, you have to give the edge to the Bruins until proven otherwise. Washington has done very little at 5-v-5 in this series. The Capitals are only 3-for-17 on the power play. That won’t get it done. Special teams have failed Washington as much as the 5-v-5 play. Boston is on the doorstep with the better goaltender and the better performance in this series thus far.

<strong>Pick: Boston Bruins</strong>

Capitals vs. Bruins Game 4 - Free Pick 05/23/21

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have enjoyed a nice resurgence recently, although we can't be sure how their schedule reshuffling is going to affect their season. They are part of the ACC now, at least for this football season, and they'll play another conference team on Saturday when they take on the Duke Blue Devils in South Bend. <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betanysports"><strong>BetAnySports</strong> </a>customers can see the game at 2:30 PM ET.

Notre Dame is an independent, so they had to move some things around because of the coronavirus. Accordingly, they came into the ACC, of which they are also a basketball member. They have won 33 of their last 39 games. Last year the schedule wasn't incredibly challenging, but they only lost to Georgia and Michigan, then beat Iowa State 33-9 in the Camping World Bowl.

This was one of the most prolific offenses in the game, and quarterback Ian Book had the kind of season (especially in the second half) that makes him a Heisman contender. He had 3034 passing yards and a 34-6 TD-INT ratio, and added 546 yards on the ground.

Will this be easier or harder to duplicate? Well, on the one hand, the Irish don't bring back any wide receiver with more than 13 receptions. And Book is the leading returning rusher. But the offensive linemen are all back, and Notre Dame made a bold choice of former quarterback Tommy Rees as offensive coordinator. So you may want to expect some of the unexpected.

In the NCAA football odds posted on this game by the folks at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/s/betanysports"><strong>BetAnySports</strong></a>, Notre Dame is a decisive favorite:

<strong>Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20 (-105)</strong>
<strong>Duke Blue Devils +20 (-115)</strong>

<strong>Over 56 points -115</strong>
<strong>Under 56 points -105</strong>

Notre Dame's defense allowed just 17.9 points per contest, and they were third stingiest against the pass, surrendering only 168.5 yards per game. But there is only one starter returning from the secondary. And if there is some "retooling" necessary on that stop unit, the Blue Devils may find themselves a beneficiary.

Duke was 5-7 last season (4-6-2 ATS), and there is change in the works by virtue of head coach David Cutcliffe now putting himself in charge of the play-calling. He is known to be proficient at working with quarterbacks (both Manning brothers, most notably, and recently Daniel Jones), and his latest project involves molding Chase Brice into this offense. Brice started his collegiate career at Clemson, and saw some action there. Now he will take the reins of a unit that returns some weaponry, including wide receiver Jalon Calhoun and tight end Noah Gray, along with running backs Deon Jackson (641 yards) and Mataeo Durant (4.8 ypc), not to mention an experienced offensive line.

Cutcliffe certainly hopes Brice can help open things up, as Duke not only turned it over too much, but also lacked in explosive plays (only 5.9% of snaps, next to last nationally).

They'll need better service out of the defense, but they may just get it. Victor Dimukeje (8.5 sacks) and Chris Rumph are outstanding up front. And cornerback Mark Gilbert, an all-conference pick who seemed ticketed for eventual first-round draft status, is back from a dislocated hip. Matt Guerneri, the co-coordinator of the defense, says that he looks like "the same Mark Gilbert that you guys knew and loved before he got hurt."

Sure, those who gave Duke a chance in last year's meeting (a 38-7 loss) may have been overly optimistic. But this is a more bloated line, a Notre Dame team that may not be as explosive, and a better Blue Devil squad than a year ago. So we will take the points.

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NCAA Football Picks -- Will Cutcliffe's Play-Calling Give Duke Life vs. Notre Dame?

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