Looking to win big? The Grizzlies and Lumberjacks face off at 8:00 ET on ESPN+. The Lumberjacks are hosting the game at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Flagstaff, AZ. Montana come into this Big Sky conference matchup as the -5.5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 143 points.


The Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +5.5

This game will be played at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome at 8:00 ET on Thursday, February 8th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-68 in favor of the Lumberjacks.
  • Not only will Northern Arizona pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 143 points, and we like the under with a projected 142 points.

Can the Grizzlies Pull Out the Win as Road Favorites?

Montana is 15-8 overall and 6-4 in Big Sky play. On the road, they are 6-5, and their average scoring margin is -5.6 points per game. As the favorite, they are 10-4, and they have been favored in 14 of their 23 games.

The Grizzlies' last game was a 78-65 loss to Eastern Washington. Over their last 10 road games, they are 6-4. For the season, their average scoring margin at home is +9.1 points per game.

Montana has gone 8-6 against the spread this season when favored and their ATS record is 12-8 overall. On the road, the Grizzlies have an ATS mark of 7-4 this year and they are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 road games. However, Montana has not fared well vs. the spread in their last three games as the favorite, going 0-3.

Montana's over/under record for the season is 9-11 and today's line of 143 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this season (142.4). So far, eight of their games have finished with more points than today's line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 140 points.

In contrast to their season average of 76.3 points per game, the Montana had a below average performance. They scored 65 points against Eastern Washington and had a field goal percentage of 34.4%. The team's top scorer is Aanen Moody, who comes into today's matchup with an average of 14.6, while Dischon Thomas also maintains a PPG average of 11.8 leading up to the game.

At this time, the Grizzlies' defense is positioned 154th in the country, permitting 71.4 points per game. So far, the Montana defense is giving up an average of 6.9 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 9.6 times per game (386th).

Do the Lumberjacks Have What it Takes at Home?

Despite being the underdog, Northern Arizona has been much better at home this season compared to on the road. The Lumberjacks are 5-2 at home compared to 5-11 on the road. Over their last 10 home games, they have gone 6-4.

Overall, Northern Arizona is 10-13 this season and enters on a three-game losing streak. In Big Sky play, the Lumberjacks are 3-6 compared to 7-7 in non-conference games.

This season, Northern Arizona has an ATS record of 10-13 and is 4-3 vs. the spread at home. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Lumberjacks have gone 4-6 vs. the spread. At home this season, their ATS mark is 5-5 over their last 10 games.

So far this season, the over/under record for Northern Arizona games is 9-13-1. Today's over/under line of 143 is lower than the average OU line in their games (144.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 152 points. In their last five games, the average scoring total is 143 points.

The Northern Arizona offense is coming off a game in which they scored 79 points vs. Idaho State. Overall their field goal percentage was 46.4% while connecting on 5 threes. Trenton McLaughlin is leading the team in scoring at 16.3 points per contest. Carson Basham has also been a key contributor with a PPG average of 10.9 going into the game.

The Lumberjacks' defense is presently ranked 255th nationally, allowing an average of 75.8 points per contest. The Northern Arizona defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 81 points and allowed Idaho State to connect on 5 threes.