Planning on watching today's Bears and Beacons game? Catch the action at Athletics-Recreation Center in Valparaiso, IN, as the Beacons hosts this showdown at 4:00 ET on ESPN+. In this Missouri Valley matchup, Missouri State is favored by -3.5 vs. Valparaiso. The over/under for the game is 139.5 points.

MISSOURI STATE BEARS VS VALPARAISO BEACONS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Valparaiso Beacons +3.5

This game will be played at Athletics-Recreation Center at 4:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.

WHY BET THE VALPARAISO BEACONS:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-68 in favor of the Beacons.
  • Not only will Valparaiso pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +3.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 139.5 points, and we like the over with a projected 144 points.

Can The Bears Secure a Win at Valparaiso?

Missouri State is favored by 3.5 points in today's game against Valparaiso. The Bears are 11-9 overall, including a 2-6 record in Missouri Valley Conference play. They have lost two straight games, and their record on the road is 2-6 this season.

So far, Missouri State has been the favorite in nine of its 20 games, going 6-3 in those contests. Over their last 10 road games, the Bears are just 3-7, and they are coming off a 69-60 loss to Illinois State.

Missouri State has an overall ATS record of 8-9-1 this season, including a mark of 2-5-1 vs. the spread on the road. As the favorite, the Bears are 5-4 vs. the spread this year and have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games as the favorite. In their last 3 road games, Missouri State is 1-2 vs. the spread.

Today's over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average over/under line in Missouri State's games this season (141.6). So far, 11 of their games have finished with fewer points than today's line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 148 points and their over/under record during that span is 1-2.

The Missouri State offense, in their latest game, managed to score just 60 points versus Illinois State. During the game, they attempted 26 three-point shots and had a field goal percentage of 33.9%. The top scorer for the Bears was Donovan Clay with 19 points, while Brad Mason also added 18 to the scoreboard.

Currently, the Bears' defense holds the 111st rank in the nation, allowing 70.2 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.7 threes per game vs. Valparaiso. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 29.9%.

Can Valparaiso Lock in a Home Win?

Valparaiso comes into this game as the underdog, something they are used to as they have been the underdog in 14 of their 20 games this season. Their record as the underdog is just 2-12, and they have lost their last two games as the underdog.

At home this season, the Beacons have gone 4-6, and their average scoring margin is -5.0 points per game. Over their last 10 home games, they have gone 4-6, and they are coming off a loss in their most recent game.

As the underdog, Valparaiso has been a solid bet this season, going 9-4-1 vs. the spread. Their ATS mark at home is currently .500 (5-5), but they have covered in their last three games as the underdog and are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games in that role.

Valparaiso's over/under record for the season sits at 8-11 and the average scoring total in their games is 138.7 points. Today's over/under line of 139.5 is lower than the average OU line in their games (141.9). So far, 10 of their games have finished with more points than today's OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 152 points and their OU record over that span is 3-0.

In their previous game, the Beacons' offense finished with 69 points, which is right in line with their current average of 68 points per contest. The top scorer for the Beacons was Cooper Schwieger with 20 points, while Isaiah Stafford also chipped in with 16 points.

On defense, Valparaiso is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 71.8 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 6.8 threes per game vs. Missouri State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 35.6%.