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The road to the Super Bowl in Tampa Bay ironically runs through Green Bay. If the Buccaneers win, they will be the first team to play at home in the Super Bowl. Ever. The San Francisco 49ers and the Los Angeles Rams have played in Super Bowls close to home, but never in their home stadium.

The Buccaneers need to pull off a mild upset to make history and they’ll have to beat the odds-on NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to do it. Green Bay is favored by four points at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline"><strong>BetOnline Sportsbook</strong></a> with a total of 51 at time of writing on Tuesday morning. Offshore sportsbooks are split between 3.5 and 4 for the game. It is obviously in your best interest to shop around for the best line depending on the side you like.

We’ve got a lot to discuss about the NFC Championship Game on January 24, so let’s do that.
<h3><strong><u>Tampa</u></strong><strong><u> Bay</u></strong><strong><u> Buccaneers</u></strong></h3>
The Buccaneers got their revenge. Everybody who proselytized about how tough it is to beat a team three times in the same season was vindicated when the Buccaneers won 30-20 over the New Orleans saints. Tampa Bay was the benefactor of the worst game of the season from Drew Brees and one of his worst playoff games ever.

The Bucs were +4 in turnover margin and won 30-20 despite only racking up 4.6 yards per play. Tampa Bay had six red zone trips to just two for the Saints by virtue of those turnovers and scored 21 points off of those takeaways. The Bucs only had 316 yards and 20 first downs, but that was good enough to advance because they didn’t make nearly as many mistakes.

They’ll have to play better on offense in all likelihood in this one. If the rematch angle was a big part of your Bucs/Saints handicap, it might as well be one here, too. The Buccaneers crushed the Packers 38-10 earlier this season. Green Bay jumped out to a 10-0 lead and the Buccaneers scored 38 unanswered. An Aaron Rodgers pick six started the scoring. A two-yard Ronald Jones touchdown run following a near pick six gave Tampa Bay the lead. They never looked back.

It was easily the worst game of the season from Rodgers, who was 16-of-35 for 160 yards with two picks. Green Bay was held to 3.3 yards per play. They averaged 6.3 yards per play for the season. So, the Buccaneers know they can play with the Packers and know they can rattle Rodgers, who was sacked four times in that game.

Maybe the Buccaneers have just gotten hot at the right time. They’ve won six in a row since the bye. On the other hand, in two playoff games, Brady is 40-of-73 for 580 yards with four touchdowns and zero picks. He had some big plays against the Washington Football Team, but was mostly bottled up by the Saints. Brady hasn’t turned the ball over. The Bucs are +4 in TO margin in the two playoff games.
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<h3><strong><u>Green Bay</u></strong><strong><u> Packers</u></strong></h3>
The Packers dominated a very good Los Angeles Rams team in their Divisional Round matchup. Green Bay had 6.7 yards per play against a group many considered to be the best defense in the NFL. Rodgers was efficient going 23-of-36 for 296 with a couple touchdowns and no sacks. The offensive line was thought to be a bit of a concern for Green Bay with the David Bakhtiari injury, but the Packers answered those worries.

It wasn’t just the Rodgers show. Far from it. Aaron Jones fell a yard short of 100, but the Packers rushed for 188 yards and 5.2 yards per carry on the Rams. Aaron Donald was less than 100% for the game with his rib cartilage injury, but Green Bay dominated the game in the trenches. Even on defense, where Jared Goff was sacked four times.

Rodgers spread the ball around to six receivers and got most of his key pass catchers involved. That will be important. One major key to Tampa Bay’s success against the Saints is that Michael Thomas was shut out. He had zero catches. Everybody talked about the Davante Adams vs. Jalen Ramsey matchup for the Packers/Rams game. Adams was held in check in the sense that he had 7.3 yards per reception, but caught nine of his 10 targets and had a touchdown.

Personally, I wouldn’t worry too much about the efficiency and effectiveness of the Packers offense. Those that may shy away from the Packers here are likely going to do so because of concerns about the defense. It was a commonly held belief that Goff wouldn’t beat the Packers in the cold and he couldn’t.

The Packers allowed 5.5 yards per play on the season. They were one of the worst teams in the NFL at generating pressure, but did manage 41 sacks somehow. They ranked 13th in adjusted net yards per pass attempt allowed. Green Bay was a top-10 red zone defense, which they may have to rely on here. They were also a better third down defense than the Buccaneers.
<h3><strong><u>Pick &amp; Analysis</u></strong></h3>
Certainly we have to consider the weather in this handicap. As the forecast gets clearer and the game gets nearer, that could have an impact on the total and also the side action. We’ve seen some speculatory money on the under at some places to bump the line down to 50.5 with early forecasts showing some windy conditions.

A lot of people will cite that Buccaneers vs. Packers game from Week 6, which was a major outlier all around. It was an uncharacteristically bad game for Rodgers and enough of an outlier with 3.3 yards per play for a top Green Bay offense to skew some of the advanced metrics for the Tampa Bay defense.

I’m on the Packers here. If you can get -3.5 instead of -4, that’s great. Shop around for the best line. Green Bay is the better all-around team.
<h4><strong>Pick: Green Bay -4</strong></h4>
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Green Bay Packers NFC Championship Free Pick, Odds, & Prediction 1/24/21

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<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Mustangs and Owls. The game is starting at 8:00 ET on ESPN+, and it's hosted by the Owls at Tudor Fieldhouse in Houston, TX. Get ready to place your bets! SMU is favored by -7 in this American Athletic conference contest against Rice. The game's over/under currently sits at 144.5 points.</p><h3>SMU MUSTANGS VS RICE OWLS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Rice Owls +7</p><p>This game will be played at Tudor Fieldhouse at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, February 7th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE RICE OWLS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 73-70 in favor of the Owls.</li><li>Not only will Rice pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +7.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 144.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Will SMU Come Through as Road Favorites?</h3><p>SMU is 15-7 overall and 6-3 in the American Athletic Conference. They have won two straight games and are 13-2 when favored this season. On the road, the Mustangs are 4-5, and their average scoring margin is +4.6 points per game.</p>

<p>In their last game, SMU defeated UAB by a score of 72-69. Over their last 10 road games, the Mustangs have gone 4-6, and they are 2-3 in their last five games away from home. So far this season, SMU has been favored in 15 of their 22 games.</p><p>SMU's ATS record for the season is 11-9-1, but they have gone just 1-3 against the spread in their last 5 games as the favorite. On the road, the Mustangs are 6-3 vs. the spread this season and 7-3 in their last 10 road games.</p><p>SMU's over/under record for the season is 8-13 and today's line of 144.5 is similar to the average over/under line in their games this season (143.3). So far, 14 of their games have finished with less points than today's line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 148 points.</p><p>In their previous game, the Mustangs' offense finished with 72 points, which is right in line with their current average of 75.6 points per contest. The top scorer for the Mustangs was Samuell Williamson with 14 points, while Chuck Harris also added 14 to the scoreboard.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the SMU defense is giving up an average of 64.2 points per contest. Against UAB in their most recent game, the SMU defense gave up a total of 69 points while allowing UAB to hit 43% of their shots.</p><h3>Can Rice Pull Off a Home Win?</h3><p>After winning their last two games, Rice will look to continue their winning ways as they enter tonight's game against SMU as seven-point underdogs. So far this season, the Owls have gone 9-13, including a 3-6 mark in American Athletic Conference play. At home, Rice has gone 5-8, compared to their 4-5 record on the road.</p>

<p>Coming into tonight's game, the Owls have lost their last five games at home, and over their last 10 games at home, they have gone 4-6. So far this season, Rice has been the underdog in 12 of their 22 games, going 3-9 in those contests.</p><p>As the underdog this season, Rice has gone 4-7-1 vs. the spread. At home, their ATS mark is 4-8-1. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Owls are 3-6-1.</p><p>So far this season, the over/under record for Rice games is 10-11-1. On average, their games have finished with 148.9 points compared to an average over/under line of 152.5, resulting in an average margin of -3.6 points. Today's over/under line of 144.5 is lower than the average scoring total in their last three games (156 points).</p><p>Rice finished with 80 points in their game against UTSA. This total surpasses their season-average of 73.4 points per game. Travis Evee is the current leading scorer for the team, with an average of 15.7 as they approach today's matchup. In addition, Mekhi Mason brings a PPG average of 14.7 into the game.</p><p>So far, the Owls' defense is ranked 246th in the country at 75.5 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Rice's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 46.1% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 35.5% this season.</p>

SMU Mustangs vs Rice Owls Betting Pick & Prediction 2/7/24

<p>Planning on watching today's Lumberjacks and Tigers game? Catch the action at Alex G. Spanos Center in Stockton, CA, as the Tigers hosts this showdown at 10:00 ET on ESPN+. The over/under for this game is set at 150.5 points, and Pacific is favored by -6.5 against Northern Arizona in a non-conference matchup.</p><h3>NORTHERN ARIZONA LUMBERJACKS VS PACIFIC TIGERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks +6.5</p><p>This game will be played at Alex G. Spanos Center at 10:00 ET on Thursday, November 14th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE NORTHERN ARIZONA LUMBERJACKS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 74-73 in favor of the Lumberjacks.</li><li>Not only will Northern Arizona pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +6.5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 150.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 147 points.</li></ul><h3>Can the Lumberjacks Pull Out the Win as Road Underdogs?</h3><p>Northern Arizona's season opener didn't go as planned, as they fell 90-64 on the road to Stanford on Tuesday. Entering the game as +18 underdogs, the Lumberjacks not only lost but also failed to cover the spread.</p> <p>After trailing 48-26 at halftime, Northern Arizona put up 38 points in the 2nd half but couldn't slow down Stanford, who scored 42 after the break. The combined points of 154 went over the pre-game O/U line of 145.5.</p><p>In their last game, Northern Arizona put up 64 points, shooting 44.6% from the field with an effective field goal percentage of 51.8%. They hit 8 of 22 from beyond the arc, good for 36.4%, and connected on 75% of their free throws, going 6 for 8.</p> <p>Maxime Raynaud led the way with 22 points and 11 rebounds, shooting 9 of 13 from the field. Trent McLaughlin added 20 points, hitting 4 of 7 from three-point range, while Ryan Agarwal was 4 of 5 from deep, finishing with 15 points on 5 of 6 shooting overall.</p><p>Northern Arizona's defense struggled, giving up 90 points on 56% shooting from the field. They allowed 32 made field goals on 57 attempts.</p> <p>The Lumberjacks gave up 12 threes on 23 attempts, a 52% clip, and sent their opponent to the line 16 times, where they hit 14 free throws.</p><h3>Will Pacific Pull Through as the Favored Home Team?</h3><h3>Pacific Tigers Recent Game/Games</h3> 

<p>Pacific fell 76-66 to Hawaii on Monday, November 11th. The Tigers, who were +3 underdogs, didn’t cover the spread. The total points for the game were 142, which exactly matched the over/under line.</p> 

<p>Pacific led 37-35 at halftime but struggled in the 2nd half, scoring only 29 points while allowing 41.</p><p>Pacific's offense struggled in their last game, shooting just 37.7% from the field and 15.4% from beyond the arc, hitting only 2 of 13 three-point attempts. Their effective field goal percentage was 39.3%, and they managed just 5 assists as a team.</p> <p>Elijah Fisher led the Tigers with 21 points, despite shooting 4 of 15 from the field. Marcus Greene and Elias Ralph each shot 50%, with Greene adding 18 points and Ralph contributing 17. Lamar Washington also chipped in 11 points and 4 assists.</p><p>Pacific's defense gave up 76 points, with the opposing team shooting 43% from the field. They were effective from two-point range, hitting 57% of their shots (16/28).</p> <p>From beyond the arc, Pacific held the other team to just 2/13 shooting, or 15%. The opposing team also went 20/25 from the free-throw line.</p>

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs Pacific Tigers NCAA Basketball Betting Pick & Prediction 11/14/24

If only they were all that easy. We went against the grain of a line move on Monday and the Arizona Wildcats rewarded us with a 13-point win after closing just a 4.5-point favorite. We didn’t get the best of the number, as the line kept moving down, but we cashed the ticket and didn’t even break a sweat.

So nice, let’s hope we can do it twice with another spotlight pick for Tuesday night.

With a much bigger card, there are a lot of games to choose from, but I’ve got my sights set on the matchup between Mississippi State and Tennessee. It isn’t an off-the-beaten-path game like I usually find, but I’ve got an angle I really like in this one and it’s about making dollar, dollar bills, y’all.

Tennessee is favored by 9.5 with a total of 128.5 at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/bovada"><strong>Bovada Sportsbook</strong></a>. This line is a-movin’, both with Mississippi State on the side and the total on the under. That means we should hurry up with the write-up and get to the pick.
<h3><strong><u>Mississippi</u></strong><strong><u> State</u></strong><strong><u> Bulldogs</u></strong></h3>
Mississippi State has a respectable 9-7 record with a 4-4 mark in SEC play on the season. Ben Howland’s bunch is also 9-7 against the spread and 9-7 to the over. Guess 9-7 is a popular number for this team.

The Bulldogs ride a two-game skid into this one, as they were rolled by in-state rival Ole Miss and then lost a track meet to Alabama. They did cover the number against the Tide, but playing a game to 74 possessions is not at all what Mississippi State wants to do. They won’t have to worry about that in this one.

The Bulldogs are shooting 36.8% from three-point range, which is great, but they also rank 343rd in 3P Rate at 25.8%. They take very few threes, but instead opt for long two-point shots, which is a –EV proposition offensively. The Bulldogs have taken a “Farther Two” as defined by Bart Torvik on 41.4% of their shots. That ranks 339th in the nation because long twos are a bad idea.

They are low-percentage shots that aren’t as valuable as taking threes. At the college basketball analytics website Haslametrics, Mississippi State is one of two teams in the top 200 with over 40% of their field goal attempts vs. the average D-I opponent from the mid-range. That sounds like a mouthful, but to simplify, Mississippi State takes a lot of bad shots. They are fifth in highest percentage of mid-range attempts. The ROI on these shots just isn’t there.

They don’t even really make them, shooting 33.3% on “Farther Twos” per Torvik. The only saving grace for Mississippi State offensively is that they are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. They are seventh in ORB%, so they get second-chance points on those misses.
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<h3><strong><u>Tennessee</u></strong><strong><u> Volunteers</u></strong></h3>
The chickens have come to roost for the Tennessee Volunteers over the last couple of games. They, too, take too many of those mid-range shots and it has been a contributing factor into how they’ve scored 113 poinst in the last two games against Florida and Missouri. Over the last two games, Tennessee is 26-of-66 on two-point attempts and 12-of-40 from deep.

This had been an efficient offensive most of the season, especially in non-conference play, but SEC play has been very inconsistent. After all, this is a Tennessee team that rolled Missouri by 20 in the conference opener on December 30 and just lost by nine at home in the rematch.

The Vols are still a top-50 offense in adjusted efficiency and are also top 50 in TO% and FT Rate. They are just outside the top 50 in ORB%. It is a defense-first team, though. Rick Barnes’s bunch ranks third in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are 12th in TO% on defense and fourth in Block%. They protect the rim well and pack in on defense. That will force Mississippi State into that low-percentage mid-range game to an even higher degree. Tennessee has also defended the three-point well, as opponents are shooting 31.2% on triple tries.

Tennessee doesn’t take a lot of threes and they’re in the top 50 in mid-range attempt percentage, though it would be better to call that the “bottom 50” because of the nature of that shot. In contrast to Mississippi State, though, Tennessee is shooting 39.3% on “Far Twos”.
<h3><strong><u>Pick &amp; Analysis</u></strong></h3>
Mississippi State ranks 307th in adjusted tempo per Bart Torvik. Tennessee ranks 296th. This is a game that probably falls somewhere around 65 or 66 possessions. The move down on the total from 130.5 to 128.5 makes a lot of sense, especially if you pay attention to the shot selection for both teams. Neither team bombs away from three-point range. Both teams settle for a lot of mid-range jumpers.

Tennessee’s athleticism should help limit Mississippi State’s second-chance opportunities on putbacks. Similarly, Tennessee probably won’t get many of their own.

This looks like a stone cold under play. We’ve lost a couple of points of line value, but I think it’s still worth taking.
<h4><strong>Pick: Under 128.5</strong></h4>
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Mississippi State vs. Tennessee College Basketball Free Pick & Prediction 1/26/21

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