The Timberwolves and Mavericks are set to face off at 7:30 ET on BSSW. The Mavericks will host the game at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX. The Timberwolves are favored in this Western conference showdown. The game's over/under is currently at 230.5 points.


The Pick: Dallas Mavericks +3

This game will be played at American Airlines Center at 7:30 ET on Sunday, January 7th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 117-113 in favor of the Mavericks.
  • Our projections have Luka Doncic finishing with Luka Doncic points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Mavericks finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.6% and knocking down 17 threes.

Will the Timberwolves Come Through as Road Favorites?

As the Timberwolves get ready to take on the Mavericks, they are sitting in 1st place in the Western Conference. Overall, Minnesota is 25-9 this season.

So far, the Timberwolves have been the favorite in 26 of their 34 games and have gone 21-5 straight up in those games. When playing on the road, Minnesota has a scoring margin of +2.1 points per contest compared to +9.6 at home. Their road record for the season is 11th in the West at 11-7, and they are just 8-9 ATS on the road.

Against the other teams in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves have gone 18-5 vs. non-conference teams (7-4 non-conference, 4-1 in the division).

When looking at their over/under record, Minnesota has gone 19-15 for the season, and the over has hit in each of their last two games. So far, 29 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today's line of 230.5. The Timberwolves have an over/under record of 18-11 in these games (1-4 with higher lines).

In their most recent game, the Timberwolves scored 122 points vs. the Rockets. They shot 52.3% from the field and hit 14 three-pointers. On the season, the Timberwolves have a 48% field goal percentage, which ranks 6th in the league. When it comes to three-pointers, they are 4th in percentage and have made the 20th most.

This season, the Timberwolves' defense is the 1st ranked defense in the NBA at 1st PPG. So far, they have held opposing offenses below the NBA scoring average in 73.5% of their games. In terms of two point field goal attempts, the Timberwolves defense has allowed a shooting percentage of 50.8% while allowing 34.7% from downtown.

Will the Dallas Defense Show Up at Home?

Heading into today's matchup vs. the Timberwolves, the Mavericks are listed as 3-point underdogs at home. Before today's game, Dallas is 6th in the West and leads the Southwest Division at 21-15.

Against the spread, the Mavericks have covered in two straight games and have an overall record of 20-16 on the season. When playing at home, they have an average scoring margin of +6.4 points per game (10th in the West).

So far, Dallas has been the underdog in 13 of their 36 games and have gone 5-8 against the spread in those games. The average over/under line in their games this season has been 234.6 points, and their OU record for the season is 22-14. The over has gone 6-4 in their games with lower over/under lines than today's line of 230.5.

Against the Blazers in their last game, the Mavericks won by a score of 139-103 and easily covered the spread as 7-point favorites. Their two-point ATS winning streak has helped move their home ATS record to 8-9 for the season.

In their last game, Dallas put up 139 points vs. the Trail Blazers and shot 58.3% from the field. In terms of scoring, Luka Doncic is averaging 33.7 PPG and Tim Hardaway Jr. is averaging 17.5 PPG.

Coming into the game, the Mavericks' defense is giving up an average of 117.0 points per game. So far, they have given up more points than the NBA league average in 61.1% of their games. The Dallas defense has allowed opponents to shoot 36.6% from beyond the arc this season. Opposing teams are also hitting 48.0% of their field goal attempts vs. Dallas.