Michigan State Spartans vs Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Pick & Prediction 11/16/24
Illinois is the -2.5 point favorite as they host Michigan State at Memorial Stadium in Champaign, IL. The game is set for 2:30 ET on Saturday, November 16th, with FS1 handling the broadcast. The money line odds are -144 for Illinois and +120 for Michigan State. The over/under line is currently at 47.5 points. Illinois comes in with a 6-3 record, while Michigan State is 4-5 on the season.
MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS VS ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI BETTING PICK
The Pick: Michigan State Spartans +2.5
This game will be played at Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL) at 2:30 ET on Saturday, November 16th.
WHY BET THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS:
- We have the Michigan State Spartans winning this one by a score of 26 to 21
- Not only do we have the Michigan State Spartans winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +2.5
- We see this game finishing below the line of 47.5 points
Will The Michigan State Spartans Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Michigan State enters Week 12 with a 4-5 record, facing Illinois on the road. The Spartans are ranked 71st in our power rankings, and they have a 57.6% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. So far, they are 2-2 at home and 1-3 on the road this season.
Against the spread, Michigan State is 4-4, with a 3-1 record on the road and 1-3 at home. They’ve only been favored in one game this season, and their average scoring margin is -4.3 points per game.
The Spartans’ over/under record is 4-4, with their games averaging 43.9 points. This week’s line is set at 47.5 points, higher than their average line of 45.8 points for the season.
Heading into week 12, Michigan State’s offense ranks 87th in scoring, averaging 19.8 points per game. They are also 76th in our offensive power rankings. Aidan Chiles has thrown for 1,850 yards, leading the Spartans’ passing game, and the team is 54th in passing completions per game. Overall, they are 70th in passing yards per game, with an average of 228 yards.
Chiles has eight touchdown passes but has also thrown 12 interceptions, resulting in a passer rating of 76. Michigan State ranks 112th in passer rating nationally. On the ground, they average 120.2 rushing yards per game. Kay’ron Lynch-Adams leads the team with 469 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Nick Marsh has 553 receiving yards and three touchdowns this season.
Michigan State’s defense has allowed an average of 24.1 points per game this season, ranking 46th nationally. In their recent game, a 47-10 loss to Indiana, they gave up 47 points despite allowing just 250 total yards, including 44 rushing yards and 206 passing yards. The defense also forced one interception in the game.
Opponents have averaged 131.4 rushing yards per game on 33 attempts against Michigan State. Through the air, the Spartans have allowed 194.8 passing yards per game, with quarterbacks completing 61.3% of their passes and posting a passer rating of 90.9.
Will The Illinois Fighting Illini Win At Home Over The Michigan State Spartans?
Illinois enters Week 12 against Michigan State with a 6-3 record, ranked 58th in our power rankings. They are 3-1 at home and have a 100% chance of being bowl-eligible. However, they have no chance of winning the Big Ten this season.
Their ATS record stands at 3-3, with a +4.8 average scoring margin. Illinois has been favored in just one game this season, and their over/under record is 0-6. The average over/under line is 49.1 points, while this week’s line is set at 47.5 points.
As the favorite, Illinois is 1-0, and they are 2-3 as the underdog. At home, they are 1-0 as the favorite and 2-1 as the underdog. Their ATS record as the favorite is 0-1, and they are 3-2 against the spread as the underdog.
Heading into week 12, Illinois ranks 59th in points per game, averaging 25.9, and they are 52nd in our offensive power rankings. Quarterback Luke Altmyer has thrown for 1,893 yards, completing 62.8% of his passes, with 16 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. He has a passer rating of 102, while the team ranks 30th in passer rating nationally.
Illinois is 68th in passing attempts, averaging 28.3 per game, and they are 80th in passing yards, with 213.6 per game. They convert 43.2% of their third downs. Leading receiver Pat Bryant has 576 yards and 7 touchdowns. On the ground, Illinois averages 142.9 rushing yards per game.
Illinois’ defense is ranked 28th nationally, allowing 21.1 points per game. In their recent game against Minnesota, they gave up 25 points but limited the Golden Gophers to just 35 rushing yards on 19 attempts. Minnesota threw the ball 45 times, completing 27 passes for 262 yards.
Opponents are averaging 211.4 passing yards per game against Illinois, completing 62.3% of their throws. On the ground, Illinois is giving up 155.6 rushing yards per game on 33.7 attempts.