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<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Cardinals and Broncos. The game is starting at 1:00 ET on ESPN+, and it's hosted by the Broncos at University Arena (MI) in Kalamazoo, MI. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this game is set at 147.5 points, and Western Michigan is favored by -1 vs. Ball State in a Mid-American conference matchup.</p><h3>BALL STATE CARDINALS VS WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Western Michigan Broncos -1</p><p>This game will be played at University Arena (MI) at 1:00 ET on Saturday, February 3rd.</p><h3>WHY BET THE WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 76-69 in favor of the Broncos.</li><li>Not only will Western Michigan pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -1.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 147.5 points, and we like the under with a projected 145 points.</li></ul><h3>Will Ball State Pull Through as the Underdog Road Team?</h3><p>Ball State enters this game as the underdog, as they have gone 3-5 in their eight games as the underdog this season. So far this season, they have gone 11-10, including a 3-6 record in Mid-American Conference play.</p>

<p>Over their last 10 games on the road, the Cardinals have gone just 3-7, and their average scoring margin on the road this season sits at -5.7. In their last game, they lost to Bowling Green by a score of 81-72.</p><p>Ball State has an overall ATS record of 12-7 this season and is 5-4 vs. the spread on the road. As the underdog, the Cardinals are 6-2 vs. the spread this year and have gone 7-3 in their last 10 games as the underdog. In their last 3 road games, Ball State is 3-0 vs. the spread.</p><p>On the season, the over/under record for Ball State is 10-8-1. So far, the average scoring total in their games is 146.1 points, and today's over/under line is set at 147.5. This year, 13 of their games have finished with more points than today's OU line. Over their last three games, the over/under record is 2-0-1, and the average scoring total in those games is 150 points.</p><p>In their most recent game, the Cardinals' offense tallied 72 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 75.1 points per game. The team's scoring leader is Basheer Jihad, who holds an average of 19.6 as they head into today's matchup. Additionally, Jalin Anderson is averaging 15.2 points per game this season.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the Ball State defense is giving up an average of 70.6 points per contest. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Ball State's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 45.9% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 36.6% this season.</p><h3>Can the Broncos Hold Strong at Home?</h3><p>Western Michigan comes into this game as a one-point favorite, and they have gone 2-2 in their four games as the favorite this season. They are 5-11 as the underdog this year.</p>

<p>At home, the Broncos are 5-5 this season, and they have gone 6-4 in their last 10 games at home. Over their last five games at home, they have gone 4-1.</p><p>As the favorite, Western Michigan has gone 2-2 vs. the spread this season and is 5-5 in their last 10 games as the favorite. At home, the Broncos are 6-4 ATS this year and 6-3 in their last 10 home games vs. the spread.</p><p>Western Michigan's over/under record this season is 10-10, and the average scoring in their games is 146.1 points. Today's over/under line of 147.5 is similar to the average OU line in their games this year (144.3). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 131 points, and their over/under record during this stretch is 0-3.</p><p>In contrast to their season average of 73 points per game, the Western Michigan had a below average performance. They scored 63 points against Toledo and had a field goal percentage of 45.6%. Currently leading the team in scoring is Seth Hubbard who comes into today's matchup averaging 15.4. Jefferson Monegro also heads into the game with a PPG average of 9.4.</p><p>The Broncos' defense is presently ranked 242nd nationally, allowing an average of 75.5 points per contest. The Western Michigan defense is coming off a game in which they gave up a total of 88 points and allowed Toledo to connect on 4 threes.</p>

Ball State Cardinals vs Western Michigan Broncos Betting Pick & Prediction 2/3/24

<p>Looking to win big? The Hornets and Panthers face off at 6:30 ET on None. The Panthers are hosting the game at William Nicks Building in Prairie View, TX. The odds for this Southwestern Athletic conference game currently have Prairie View A&M as the -2 point favorite with the over/under line sitting at 138 points.</p><h3>ALABAMA STATE HORNETS VS PRAIRIE VIEW A&M PANTHERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Prairie View A&M Panthers -2</p><p>This game will be played at William Nicks Building at 6:30 ET on Saturday, January 27th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE PRAIRIE VIEW A&M PANTHERS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Panthers.</li><li>Not only will Prairie View A&M pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 138 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.</li></ul><h3>Taking a Look at the Hornets Chances on the Road</h3><p>Alabama State heads into this Southwestern Athletic Conference matchup with a 9-9 record, including a 3-1 mark in conference play. The Hornets have won two straight games and are 6-8 in non-conference action.</p>

<p>On the road, Alabama State is 3-7 this season, and they have gone 4-6 in their last 10 games away from home. For the year, the Hornets have been outscored by an average of 9.9 points per game on the road.</p><p>Alabama State has been one of the best teams in the country against the spread this season, going 10-4. On the road, they have been even better, going 9-1 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Hornets are 7-3 vs. the spread.</p><p>This season, Alabama State's over/under record is 5-9 and today's over/under line of 138 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (148.3). So far, 13 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 138. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 123 points and their over/under record during that stretch is 0-3.</p><p>In their most recent game, the Hornets' offense tallied 72 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 70.8 points per game. On offense, Alabama State has been struggling with their efficiency, coming into today's game with a field goal percentgage of 38%. So far, they are 249th in free-throws made on a free throw shooting percentage of 72%.</p><p>On defense, Alabama State is currently around the NCAA average in points allowed, giving up an average of 70.4 points per game. So far, the Alabama State defense is giving up an average of 8.1 offensive rebounds per game and are turning teams over 10.8 times per game (464th).</p><h3>Can the Panthers Hold Strong at Home?</h3><p>After dropping their last game to Alcorn State by a score of 90-78, Prairie View A&M comes into this game with a 7-11 record. So far, they have gone 2-0 at home compared to 4-11 on the road.</p>

<p>As the favorite, the Panthers are 2-0 this season, and they have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games at home. On the other hand, Prairie View A&M has been the underdog in 15 of their 18 games, going 4-11 in those matchups.</p><p>As the favorite, Prairie View A&M has struggled against the spread this season, going 0-2. Their overall ATS record is 7-10, and at home, they are 0-2 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Panthers are just 2-7-1.</p><p>On the season, the over/under record for Prairie View A&M games is 8-9, and today's line of 138 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (143.4). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 143 points, which is higher than today's line of 138. So far this year, 14 of their games had higher OU lines than today's, and their OU record over their last 10 games is 3-6.</p><p>Prairie View A&M recently showcased a strong offensive performance, scoring 78 points against Alcorn State. This output exceeded their season average of 70.4 points per game. The team's top scorer is Charles Smith IV, who enters today's matchup with an average of 14.2, while Javontae Hopkins also carries a PPG average of 11.9 into the game.</p><p>Looking at the Prairie View A&M defense, they will be looking for a better performance considering they are currently conceding 77.1 points per game (258th). In their previous game vs. Alcorn State, the Braves finished with a field goal percentage of 64% and a total of 90 points vs. Prairie View A&M.</p>

Alabama State Hornets vs Prairie View A&M Panthers Betting Pick & Prediction 1/27/24

Bankroll management is so important in sports betting. You have to treat sports betting like any other financial endeavor. It’s all about personal responsibility. It’s all about finding out what works for you. Those <a href="http://www.gamblersanonymous.org/ga/"><strong>gambling addiction</strong></a> things aren’t lying when they talk about only gambling with what you can afford to lose. It isn’t a defeatist attitude to look at sports betting and consider the strong possibility that you will lose money. It’s a lot like any other form of gambling. There’s always an edge and it generally doesn’t belong to you.

That being said, there are handicappers out there that are extremely successful. Sure, they’re good at picking games or finding mathematical edges, but there’s one thing that all of them have in common. They know how to manage a bankroll. It doesn’t matter if you are just starting out as a $5 or $10 bettor or somebody established in the industry playing $10,000 or $20,000 on a game. Being responsible with a bankroll is non-negotiable. It is essential to being a good handicapper. You can pick winners 60 percent of the time, but if you’re not mindful of simple bankroll management techniques, you might still lose money.

Like everything else in handicapping, there are different ways of going about bankroll management. We’ll discuss a few strategies here, ranging from very simple to a little bit more complex and complicated. What works for you may not work as well for somebody else, but the end goal should always be the same. When you beat the vig, you need to show a profit. We’ll start with the basics and go from there.

<strong>Flat Betting: </strong>Flat betting is simply betting the same amount on every game. This can be hard for a lot of people because they often believe that they have a stronger opinion on one game than another. For those just starting out with a limited bankroll, maybe only that one strong opinion should be played as opposed to both of them.

Let’s say you have a bankroll of $100. How much are you comfortable betting? Do you have the ability to replenish your account if you go broke? How much would depositing another $100 hurt you financially? These are all considerations. Some <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/"><strong>sportsbooks</strong> </a>offer limits as low as $1. Others have a limit of $5 per wager. Most handicappers that you talk to will advocate around three percent of your bankroll per wager as a standard unit size.

There are two different philosophies behind flat betting. One is a conservative, mostly risk-averse approach. You’re not betting a high volume of games and may have three or four games per night across the NHL, NBA, and college basketball. Maybe you have three or four games on a college football Saturday and two or three games on an NFL Sunday. With flat betting, you are simply betting the same amount on every game and you’re hoping to be above the <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sports-betting-odds-how-to-win-and-beat-the-vig/"><strong>52.38 percent break-even rate at a vig of -110 to show a profit</strong></a>. You’re taking what you believe to be larger edges by betting games you have the highest confidence in and hoping to gain profits that way.

For most novice bettors starting out, this is the best approach to take. It’s the simplest approach and provides the least amount of exposure to your bankroll. If you win 50 percent of your games, you’re only losing the juice, which would be about 10 cents on the dollar on every standard -110 bet.

The other philosophy behind flat betting is used by high-volume bettors. Lots of edges in a large number of games would add up to bigger wins. High-volume players may deviate slightly here and there on “bigger” plays, but, more often than not, the edges are going to be grouped into a standard unit size. A high-volume player may have 12 to 15 plays a night across the daily winter sports and also have 10 to 12 plays on a college football Saturday. Almost all of those bets will have the same unit size. When it comes to volume, the idea of needing to win three bets to make up for one lost bet isn’t appealing. As a result, a lot of high-volume bettors will pick a unit size and stick with it until their bankrolls are big enough to justify an increase. After that, they will pick a new bet size and stick with it.

Let’s look at an example. Let’s say you have a bankroll of $200 and have decided to use $5 as your standard unit size. In this instance, $5 is a little bit less than three percent, but that’s what you feel comfortable with. To make the math easy, each example bet will be 1.1 units on the standard -110 juice. That way, you bet 1.1x to win 1x rather than 1x to win .909x.

Let’s say that this is your card for February 1, 2017:

NBA: Minnesota +6 (LOSS; $5.50 to win $5; -1.1x)

NBA: Indiana -2.5 (WIN; $5.50 to win $5; +1x)

CBB: Drake +16.5 (WIN; $5.50 to win $5; +1x)

CBB: USC -1.5 (WIN; $5.50 to win $5; +1x)

Results: Units risked: 4.4; Units won: 3; Units lost: 1.1

Your profit for the night is $9.50, or 1.9 units (5.5 * 1.9)

Think about if you had put two units on that Minnesota play and bet $11 to win $10. Your profit for the night would be just $4, or not even one full unit, even though you went 3-1 on your picks. You would have only made 0.8 units because of the increased bet size.

<strong>The Sliding Scale:</strong> Many handicappers that sell picks in the industry are going to have a sliding scale that they recommend. This is something that all bettors can adopt if they want. Certainly you’ve heard of 3* plays or a “three-dime bet” or a “five-star Game of the Week”. There’s a certain marketing element to the industry, as we all know, but these are often games that handicappers have a stronger opinion about. It’s going to happen. You’re going to find a game that you absolutely love. Your plan is going to be to “load up” on that game.

This takes a bankroll and an understanding of how the industry, break-even percentages, and the vig work. You have to understand that “stepping out” to make a 5x play on a five-star Game of the Week presents certain challenges. This is a more aggressive approach to bankroll management. For some, it works. Those are generally people that don’t bet a large number of games per day or per weekend.

Some sites will do this based on a “star rating”. One star is your standard bet amount. Three stars would be three times that amount. Five stars would be five times that amount. In terms of your personal handicapping, you have to weigh the risk-reward of putting five times the amount on one play. If you are a $5 bettor with a $100 bankroll and you want to put $25 in play on one game, that’s a significant chunk of your available funds. If you are a $3 bettor following the three percent rule, a 15 percent investment is about the max that most would recommend on one game and that’s even pushing it. Obviously, you have to consider the ramifications of losing 15 percent of your bankroll. How it limits you with future wagers. How it could force you into depositing more funds. On the other hand, we all look at slot machines thinking about winning the big money and not the 3x line for three cherries.

One thing to be cognizant of with a sliding scale is that you should <u>always</u> turn a profit with a 2-1 night. That’s why a 2-3-4 or a 3-4-5 scale works. If you win the 2x and 3x wagers, you’ll have something to show for it with a 4x loss. Similarly, winning a 3x and 4x can soften the blow from losing a 5x. You don’t want to have something like a 2x, 5x, 10x scale, where two wins still create a three-unit loss if the 10x fails.

As you get more comfortable at picking and choosing your spots, you’re going to find those games that stand out. Always be mindful of just how much your big plays count towards your overall bankroll and bet something that is responsible that you can afford to lose.

<strong><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion">Kelly Criterion</a>: </strong>This is where we start to elevate our bankroll management vocabulary. The Kelly Criterion is mathematical approach to determining what amount to bet based on your perceived advantage. There is a formula for this:

(Probability * Decimal Odds) – 1 / (Decimal Odds – 1) = % to bet “Kelly Stake”

Let’s say that you have a model. You put in all of the pertinent information that your model needs to calculate an expected outcome. In a given sporting event, the model suggests that the Miami Beach Flamingos are a 65 percent favorite (which would imply a line of -185) to win over the Ocean City Hermit Crabs in a minor league baseball game. The actual line on the game is Miami Beach -120. The decimal odds of -120 are 1.83.

Probability: .65

Decimal Odds: 1.83

Our equation is then:

(.65 * 1.83) – 1 / (1.83 – 1)

(1.1895 – 1) / .83

.1895 / .83 = .228313

According to the Kelly Criterion in this example, your optimal bet size would be 22.83 percent of your bankroll with a 65-cent line advantage.

Let’s look at an example using point spreads and basketball. The Ashtabula Aardvarks are listed as a 2.5-point favorite against the Grove City Geese in NBA D-League action. The standard money line for a 2.5-point favorite is somewhere in the -140 range. Your numbers, however, have Ashtabula favored by five points, which is more like a -215 money line. A -215 money line implies a 68.25 percent probability of winning. The Decimal Odds of the -140 line are around 1.71.

Our equation is:

(.6825 * 1.71) – 1 / (1.71 – 1)

(1.167075 – 1) / .71

.167075 / .71 = .23531

According to the Kelly Criterion, your optimal bet size would be 23.53 percent of your bankroll.

That may seem crazy and, to be honest, it is a bit over the top. As a result, most bettors that subscribe to the Kelly theory of bankroll management often play more like “quarter Kelly” at 2.5 percent, which, in this case, would be 5.88 percent of your bankroll (.2353 *.25). The risk of ruin betting 23.53 percent of your bankroll on one single edge of 2.5 points is pretty high, so most people modify the calculations to limit risk, but still look to capitalize on big advantages.

This is a more advanced, aggressive approach. It can be done and there are plenty of odds converters out there to get the money line to percentage calculations and also the American odds to the Decimal odds. Be very careful using this type of money management system. The full investment of the Kelly Criterion can be applied with casino games like blackjack when there is perceived to be a significant edge or with the stock market. In sports betting, limiting exposure by using a fraction of the Kelly Criterion can be a worthwhile endeavor.

<strong>Martingale System: </strong>If you’re looking for a cautionary tale with betting systems, look no further than the Martingale System. This is a system that is mostly applied to casino games, but you can bet that somebody out there has applied it to sports betting. The system itself is rather simple.

Each time you win, you keep the same bet amount. Each time you lose, you double your bet amount, assuming that you will win at some point and get your money back and then some! It sounds great, right?! Well, it’s also a pretty good way to go broke because what if you don’t win before you run out of money?

Let’s look at this in practice, assuming a $100 bankroll and a 5% unit size, where you bet 1.1x to win 1x:

Bet 1: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($94.50)

Bet 2: $11.00 to win $10 (WIN) ($104.50)

Bet 3: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($99)

Bet 4: $11 to win $10 (LOSS) ($88)

Bet 5: $22 to win $20 (WIN) ($108)

Bet 6: $5.50 to win $5 (WIN) ($113)

Bet 7: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($107.50)

Bet 8: $11 to win $10 (LOSS) ($96.50)

Bet 9: $22 to win $20 (LOSS) ($74.50)

Bet 10: $44 to win $40 (LOSS) ($30.50)

If you started with a $100 bankroll and the Martingale system, you no longer have enough money to follow it. In 10 bets, you’ve lost over 70 percent of your bankroll by losing seven out of 10 bets.

The bankroll required to play the Martingale system is much bigger than your standard bankroll because of how the bet sizes increase with each loss. Every form of betting has some house edge built into it, so you are expected to lose over the long-term. That’s not pessimism, that’s probability. The Martingale system can be profitable in the short-term, but, oftentimes, you will lose and lose badly in the long-term.

Had you been flat betting, it would have looked like this:

Bet 1: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($94.50)

Bet 2: $5.50 to win $5 (WIN) ($99.50)

Bet 3: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($94)

Bet 4: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($88.50)

Bet 5: $5.50 to win $5 (WIN) ($93.50)

Bet 6: $5.50 to win $5 (WIN) ($98.50)

Bet 7: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($93)

Bet 8: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($87.50)

Bet 9: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($82)

Bet 10: $5.50 to win $5 (LOSS) ($76.50)

You can still live to fight many more days.

Figuring out which bankroll technique works for you requires an honest assessment of the size of your bankroll, what you hope to achieve, and what you can afford to deposit if you go broke. There are other strategies out there and other means of money management, but these are a good starting point to evaluate what works for you and what doesn’t.

Money Management and Sports Betting

<p>With a record of 10-2, the Yankees will host the Marlins on Wednesday night in an interleague matchup. Miami is just 1-11 so far this season and will be facing a Yankees club that is the heavy favorite (-220). The Marlins are currently +183 on the money line. Tonight's game will be played at Yankee Stadium and will get underway at 7:05. The over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs.</p>

<p>Looking at the forecast, it looks like it will be in the low 60s with overcast skies. The Marlins are sending Ryan Weathers to the mound, and he will be facing Marcus Stroman for the Yankees. This one has the makings of a mismatch, as Stroman is 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA compared to Weathers at 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA. You can catch this on TV on BSFL.</p><h3>MIAMI MARLINS VS NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs</p><p>This game will be played at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 ET on Wednesday, April 10th.</p><h3>HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS YANKEES:</h3><ul><li>We have the Yankees winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>However, if you're looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul><p>The Yankees and Marlins played a close game in the last matchup of this series, with the Yankees pulling out a 3-2 win at home. New York closed as a -214 favorite, while the Marlins were +177 on the money line.</p>

<p>Carlos Rodon got the start for the Yankees and didn't factor into the decision, despite not allowing a run in six innings of work. Clay Holmes picked up the save, while A.J. Puk took the loss for Miami.</p>

<p>Offensively, the Yankees hit one home run, which came from Alex Verdugo, who went 1/3. Anthony Rizzo also had a multi-hit game for New York. As for the Marlins, Tim Anderson went 2/4 and was the only player on the team to have more than one hit.</p><h3>Marlins Records & Stats</h3><p>Despite being just 1-11 overall, the Marlins are only seven games behind the Braves for the NL East lead. They are currently on a three-game losing streak and have lost two straight series. Miami has struggled in day games, going just 1-7, and has yet to win a game at home, going 0-7.</p>

<p>On the road, the Marlins are 1-4 and have dropped two straight series. They have been the underdog in five of their six road games and have gone 1-4 in those contests.</p><p>The Marlins have been a poor bet on the run line this season, going just 2-10 overall. They have been particularly bad at home, where they are 0-7 ATS. On the road, they are 2-3 ATS, but they have lost their last three games against the run line as the favorite. Overall, they are getting outscored by an average of 2.8 runs per game this season.</p><p>Despite the Miami Marlins' Over/Under record of 8-4, the Under has hit in their last two games. The Marlins have played in three games with an Over/Under line of 8.5 runs, and the Over has hit in four of their games overall. Their games have averaged 9.8 runs per game, and their Over/Under record for the season is 8-4. Today's O/U line is set at 8.5 runs.</p><p>Ryan Weathers is getting the start for the Marlins against the Yankees. He has had one start on the road so far this season, and that came against the Cardinals. In that outing, he went 5 innings, giving up 3 runs on 3 hits and 3 walks. He did strike out 6 batters.</p><p>For the Marlins, we have Luis Arraez as our top projected hitter in terms of total hits, as his projection is 4th best in the league today. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the best odds to hit a home run for the Marlins, with his projection being 12th best in today's slate of games. If you're looking for a longshot, Jake Burger has the best home run projection on the team and it's 12th best in today's games.</p><h3>Yankees Records & Stats</h3><p>The Yankees are coming off a sweep of the Marlins, and they have won four straight games overall. They are currently in first place in the AL East and have a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Red Sox. The Yankees have been excellent at home this season, going 4-1, and they have also been great on the road, posting a 6-1 record.</p>

<p>New York has been favored in eight of their 10 wins this season and has gone 6-2 in those games. They have also been perfect as an underdog, going 4-0.</p><p>The Yankees have been a strong run line bet this season, going 7-5 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 5-2 against the run line. As an underdog, they are a perfect 4-0 against the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is 2.8, while their average run margin in losing games is -5.0.</p><p>With an over/under line of 8.5 runs, the New York Yankees and Miami Marlins have combined to average 8.3 runs per game this season. The Yankees have gone under the over/under line in two straight games and are 3-8 on the season in over/under outcomes. Half of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.</p><p>Coming into today's start, Marcus Stroman has a 1-0 record on the year, with his win coming on the road against the Astros. He went six innings in that outing, striking out four and allowing three runs. In his last start, Stroman went six innings without allowing a run, but he did give up a home run. He'll be at home today against the Marlins.</p><p>If you are looking at the Yankees' top offensive performers today, Aaron Judge has the highest home run projection on the team and the 6th best in the league. Giancarlo Stanton is 2nd on the team in terms of home run projection and 8th in the league. Gleyber Torres has the best overall hits projection on the team, and Juan Soto is 2nd in terms of total hits and 3rd in terms of home run projection.</p>

Miami Marlins vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Prediction 4/10/24

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