Miami Marlins vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/26/24
David Festa and the Twins are the heavy favorite heading into Thursday’s interleague matchup vs. the Marlins, with their money line odds sitting at -252. Miami will be starting Valente Bellozo and is +209 on the money line. First pitch from Target Field is set for 7:40 PM ET.
The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and this one will be televised on BSFL. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East, while the Twins are 4th in the AL Central. Overall, the Marlins are 58-100, while the Twins are 82-76.
MIAMI MARLINS VS MINNESOTA TWINS BETTING PICK
The Pick: OVER 8.5 Runs
This game will be played at Target Field at 7:40 ET on Thursday, September 26th.
HOW TO BET THE MARLINS VS TWINS:
- We have the Twins winning by a score of 6 to 5
- However, if you’re looking for a run line pick, we like the Marlins to cover
- As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Marlins by a score of 8-3. The Twins offense only had eight hits but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -193 on the money line.
Miami actually got on the board first in this game, scoring three runs in the first inning. As for the Twins, they didn’t get on the board until the 3rd, but they broke out for five run in the 7th and added two more in the 8th.
Simeon Woods Richardson only went one inning for the Twins but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. Griffin Jax came out of the bullpen for the win. Edward Cabrera struggled on the mound for the Marlins, giving up five runs in five innings of work.
Marlins Records & Stats
Miami is on the road today vs. the Twins, and they are 58-100 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East. So far, they are 35.5 games behind the Phillies for the lead in the NL East. The Marlins have gone just 18-34 in divisional games this year.
At home, the Marlins are 30-51 compared to 28-49 on the road. As the underdog, Miami is 54-86 this year, while going just 4-14 as the favorite. The Marlins’ overall series record is 11-30-9, and they have dropped four straight series.
When the Marlins win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game. But when they lose, they lose big, with an average run margin of -3.9 runs per game. That’s why their overall run line record is 74-84, despite being just -1.4 runs per game on average. They’ve been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 72-68, compared to just 2-16 as the favorite. They’ve also been a slightly better bet on the run line on the road, going 39-38, compared to 35-46 at home.
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Minnesota Twins today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Marlins have an over/under record of 83-69 this season, and their games have averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, Miami has a record of 29-25 in those games. Overall, 20.9% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Miami is sending right-hander Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Twins. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA. Bellozo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.30, and opponents are batting .251 off him this season. In his 12 appearances, Bellozo has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Looking back at his last outing, Bellozo picked up the win vs. the Braves, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. He has given up three earned runs in each of his last three outings.
The Marlins offense has struggled to put up runs all season long, as they are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging just 3.4 runs per contest. Miami’s team batting average is just .242, and they are also near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage and slugging. However, they do have a good team BABIP of .30.
Jake Burger has been swinging the bat well of late, going 8/27 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .247 with a team-high 72 RBIs. Burger’s 29 homers is 13th in the league. Jesús Sánchez is also batting .247 for the season and is on a four-game hitting streak.
Twins Records & Stats
Minnesota is 82-76 overall and trails the Guardians by 9.5 games in the AL Central. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional matchups. The Twins are at home today, where they are 43-34 this season.
The Twins have dropped three straight series, and their overall series record is 26-20-4. As the favorite, Minnesota is 65-46 and 17-30 as the underdog. Minnesota is 4-6 across their last 10 games and are tied 1-1 in their series vs. the Marlins.
Minnesota is 33-44 against the run line at home this season, but 40-41 on the road. The Twins’ average run differential is +0.2 runs per game, and they are 73-85 overall vs. the run line. They are 48-63 vs. the run line as the favorite and 25-22 as the underdog.
Minnesota’s games have averaged 9.1 runs this season, and they have an over/under record of 80-72. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 25-22. The Twins have played 14 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, which is just 8.9% of their games this season. Their games have had an average line of 8 runs, and 61.4% of their games have had lower lines than today’s 8.5-run total.
Right-hander David Festa gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Marlins at home. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-6 with an ERA of 4.80. Festa’s WHIP for the season is 1.28, and opponents are batting .227 this year. Festa’s last outing came against the Red Sox, where he went five innings, giving up one earned run on four hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Festa has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 10.8 strikeouts and 3.3 walks.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs this season, but he has struggled at the plate of late, hitting just .179 over his last 10 games. Willi Castro has also gone deep just once in his last 10 games but has a batting average of .286 during that stretch. Byron Buxton has been hot of late, going 10/33 in his last eight games, including one home run.
For the season, the Twins are 10th in the league in scoring at 4.6 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .247, which is 10th in the league.