Tip-off for game two of this first-round Eastern Conference matchup between the Heat and Celtics is at 7:00 PM ET at TD Garden in Boston. The Celtics are the 14.5 point favorites and lead the series 1-0. The over/under line is at 202.5 points, and the money line odds are Miami +750 and Boston -1277. TNT is carrying the game on TV.

MIAMI HEAT VS BOSTON CELTICS BETTING PICK

The Pick: Miami Heat +14.5

This game will be played at TD Garden at 7:00 ET on Wednesday, April 24th.

WHY BET THE MIAMI HEAT:

  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 114-112 in favor of the Celtics.
  • Our projections have Jayson Tatum finishing with Jayson Tatum points, 8 rebounds and 5 assists.
  • From the field, we have the Celtics finishing with a field goal percentage of 47.6% and knocking down 19 threes.

The Celtics picked up a 114-94 win over the Heat in the most recent game of this series. Boston was favored by 14.5 points heading into the game and easily covered the spread. The most lopsided quarter of the game was the 3rd, as the Celtics outscored the Heat 31-14. The game fell 2 points short of the over/under line of 210.5 points.

Boston was excellent from beyond the arc in this game, making 22 threes on 44.9% shooting. Jayson Tatum had a triple-double for the Celtics, finishing with 23 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds. Derrick White added 20 points and hit four threes. As for the Heat, Bam Adebayo led the team with 24 points.

Will the Heat Make it Happen on the Road?

Miami is 11-25 as the underdog this season and has lost five straight games against the spread as the underdog. Today, they are getting 14.5 points and have gone 36-13 as the underdog.

In their last game against the Celtics, the Heat lost 114-94. They also failed to cover the spread (+14.5) and the game finished with a combined scoring total of 208 points.

On the road, Miami is 25-15 against the spread and has an average scoring margin of +1.0 points per game. Overall, they are 42-40 ATS this season.

In the Eastern Conference, the Heat are currently in 8th place with a record of 46-36. Against the East, they are 32-20 compared to 14-16 against the West.

For the season, Miami's O/U record is 36-49, and the under has hit in their last two games. Today's O/U line of 202.5 is lower than their season average of 218.1.

Looking at Miami's offense, they are 25th in the league this season, averaging 110.1 points per game. Their scoring average on the road is 107.7 points per contest. The Heat are near the bottom of the league in pace this season, averaging just 95.8 possessions per game.

Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier are both out for tonight's game. Butler is averaging 20.8 points per game this season, and Rozier is at 19.8. Butler is also averaging 5 assists per game, and Rozier is at 5.6. Tyler Herro is averaging 18.8 points per game in his last five games, along with 7 assists and 5 rebounds. Bam Adebayo is averaging 19.3 points and 10.4 rebounds for the season.

When it comes to defense, the Miami Heat have been one of the best teams in the league this season. They are currently 4th in the NBA in points allowed per game at 108.2. On the road, they have been even stingier, leading the league at 106.7 points per contest.

One of the reasons the Heat have been so successful on the defensive end is their ability to force teams into tough shots. They are 11th in the league in field goal percentage allowed at 46.7%. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents are making 35.4% of their attempts vs. Miami.

Over their last five games, the Heat have been even better on the defensive end. During that stretch, they have held opponents to just 103.2 points per game, which is 3rd in the league. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, they are 6th in the league at 43.6%.

Can the Boston Offense Score Enough at Home?

The Celtics are looking to complete a 4-game sweep of the Heat this season after defeating them 114-94 in their most recent matchup. In that game, the Celtics easily covered the spread as 14.5-point favorites.

In the Eastern Conference, the Celtics have a 1st place record of 64-18. Against other Eastern Conference teams, they are 41-11 and 23-7 against the West.

This season, the Celtics have been favored in 79 of their 82 games and have gone 63-16 in those games. As the favorite, they have won three straight games and have an average scoring margin of +12.2 points per game.

Boston's ATS record for the season is 42-37, including a 23-17 record at home and 19-20 on the road. They have covered the spread in three straight games as the home team.

The Celtics' O/U record for the season is 43-39-1, and their games have averaged 229.5 points per game. Today's O/U line of 202.5 is lower than their season average of 228.9.

Overall, the Celtics are the NBA's 2nd best scoring offense, at 120.6 points per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 122.9 points per contest. Boston is the league leader in three-point attempts, getting up 42.5 attempts per game, and they are 6th in field goal percentage. The team's average of 16.5 made threes per game is also the best in the league.

Payton Pritchard has been playing well of late, averaging 19.8 points per game over his last five games. This has come while hitting 56.9% of his shots from the field. Jayson Tatum is averaging 21 points per game over his last three games but has hit just 25% of his threes in that stretch. Looking at Boston's three-point shooting, Tatum, Brown, and Hauser are all shooting below their season averages from beyond the arc.

When it comes to defense, the Boston Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA this season. They are currently 5th in the league in points allowed per game at 109.0. At home, they have been even better, giving up just 107.6 points per contest, which is 4th in the league.

One area where the Celtics have excelled defensively is at the free-throw line. They are currently 1st in the NBA in made free-throws allowed per game at just 17.2. Over their last five games, they have been even better in this area, giving up just 8.4 made free-throws per contest.

Despite their success on defense, opposing teams have been able to hit from beyond the arc against the Celtics, shooting 34.9% from three on the season. Over their last five games, they have struggled even more in this area, giving up a three-point percentage of 39.6%.