The Minutemen and Flyers are set to face off at 1:00 ET on ESPN2. The Flyers will host the game at UD Arena in Dayton, OH. This Atlantic 10 conference matchup has an over/under of 149 points, and the Flyers are favored to win at home vs. the Minutemen.


The Pick: Massachusetts Minutemen +8.5

This game will be played at UD Arena at 1:00 ET on Sunday, January 7th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Flyers.
  • Even though we have Dayton winning straight-up, we like Massachusetts at +8.5.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 149 points, and we like the under with a projected 143 points.

Will the Minutemen Win on the Road?

Massachusetts comes into this game as the underdog, with a record of 10-3 and a four-game winning streak. So far, the Minutemen have gone 2-1 on the road this season, with an average scoring margin of +6.7 points per game. In their last game, they took on Duquesne and came away with an 80-61 victory.

Over their last 10 games on the road, Massachusetts is just 3-7. This season, they have been the favorite in 12 of their 13 games, going 9-3 in those contests. Today, they are getting 8.5 points against Dayton.

As the underdog, UMass has an ATS record of 1-0 this season and an overall ATS mark of 9-4. On the road, the Minutemen have gone 2-1 vs. the spread and are 4-6 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

UMass' over/under record for the season is 8-5 and today's line of 149 is very close to the average over/under line in their games this year (149.7). So far, eight of their games have finished with more points than today's line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points and their over/under record during that stretch is 0-3.

In their recent game, the Minutemen's offense concluded with 80 points, consistent with their ongoing season average of 83.8 points per contest. The team's top scorer is Josh Cohen, who enters today's matchup with an average of 16.8, while Matt Cross also carries a PPG average of 16.5 into the game.

Coming into today's game, the Massachusetts defense is giving up an average of 71.2 points per contest. In today's game vs. Dayton, the Massachusetts defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, Massachusetts made 24 free-throws vs. the Minutemen.

Can the Flyers Lock in a Home Win?

The Dayton Flyers are 8.5-point favorites today as they take on the Massachusetts Minutemen at home. So far this season, Dayton has gone 11-2 and have won their last eight games.

At home, the Flyers are a perfect 8-0 and have an average scoring margin of +15.0 points per game. In their last game, Dayton defeated Davidson by a score of 72-59.

At home this season, Dayton has gone 4-4 vs. the spread. Their overall ATS record is 7-5-1. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Flyers have gone 6-4 vs. the spread. In their last three home games, Dayton is 2-1 ATS.

Today's over/under line of 149 is higher than the average over/under line in Dayton's games this year (134.9). So far, 13 of their games have had lower over/under lines than today's line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total in those games is 145 points.

The Dayton offense is coming off a game in which they scored 72 points vs. Davidson. Overall their field goal percentage was 50% while connecting on 7 threes. In terms of three-point shooting, the Flyers offense has been good from outside, hitting 41% of their three-pointers on an average of 23.8 attempts per game. Their overall field goal percentage is currently 48%.

At present, the Flyers' defense is nationally ranked 47th, allowing 65.1 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Dayton's defense has allowed opponents to shoot 41.5% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 34.4% this season.