Newsletter

Bud Foster is really going to have to dial something up in his final game as the Virginia Tech defensive coordinator. His Hokies take on the Kentucky Wildcats and one of the most prolific rushing attacks in the country thanks to wide receiver turned quarterback Lynn Bowden Jr.

Virginia Tech is listed as the favorite at -2.5, but this line did open -3, so some of the early money has come in on the underdog Wildcats. This is a neutral-site game in Charlotte and both fan bases are capable of making the trip if they desire. The total is sitting in the 46.5 range across most of the market, down from the opener of 47.

Kentucky only passed for 1,405 yards this season. Quarterback Terry Wilson was hurt early in the season and backup Sawyer Smith was a disaster with a 4/5 ratio and a 45.6% completion percentage. Bowden actually surpassed that mark with a 46.8% completion rate on his 62 attempts. It was Bowden’s running, coupled with some strong numbers from Asim Rose, Kavosiey Smoke, and Christopher Rodriguez Jr. that really drove Kentucky’s offense.

Of the five teams that outgained Kentucky on the ground, three run the option. Ohio State and Louisiana are the others. When all was said and done for the regular season, Kentucky racked up 6.17 yards per play and 6.36 yards per carry. Only Clemson and Louisiana chewed up more yards per carry on the ground, but only the service academies outgained Kentucky in the rushing yards per game department.

Bowden wound up with 151 carries for 1,235 yards and 11 touchdowns. An 8.2 yards per carry average isn’t too shabby, especially when it comes in concert with running backs that picked up 5.4, 6.3, and 7.9 yards per carry. Credit to Mike Stoops, the offensive line, and offensive coordinator Eddie Gran for reinventing the offense on the fly. With no QB play to speak of on the roster because of injuries and ineffectiveness, Kentucky found a way and here they are as a very live dog in the bowl game.

Virginia Tech’s defense really stepped up and few teams were hotter than Virginia Tech through October and November. After the blowout loss to Duke on September 27, Virginia Tech’s only loss was a one-point defeat against Notre Dame before falling to Virginia in the annual rivalry game. The Virginia Tech offense also really took off because of a quarterback change. Hendon Hooker was inserted into the lineup and put up strong numbers. Had Hooker been available for the Notre Dame game, maybe VA Tech does come away with that one.

Hooker posted an 11/2 TD/INT ratio with a 62% completion rate. He also carried the ball 111 times for 306 yards. This isn’t an explosive offense by any means, with just 5.65 yards per play, but it is a dual-threat offense with Hooker. That dynamic was very much missing with Ryan Willis at quarterback.

Let’s see how these two defenses handle the opposition. Virginia Tech was 32nd nationally with 5.2 yards per play allowed. Kentucky was 33rd with 5.21 yards per play allowed, but Kentucky also faced 89 fewer offensive plays than Virginia Tech because of the ability to play keep away with the running game. The Hokies were 31st in yards per carry allowed at 3.68. Kentucky finished all the way down at 76th, but Virginia Tech’s offense only managed 3.89 yards per carry.

This one is all about effort. Both teams should be pretty motivated to be here in what should be an evenly-matched game. Kentucky knocked off Penn State last season for the program’s first bowl win since 2008. Virginia Tech will want to send Bud Foster off on a high note with a win. All in all, this is one of the tougher bowl handicaps. The Kentucky running game is the best unit on the field bar none and the two defenses are pretty equal. Do you trust Mark Stoops and his staff or Justin Fuente and a highly-focused Bud Foster?

My personal power ratings actually have this game Virginia Tech -4, though their impressive run over October and November did force me to reevaluate them a few times over. Kentucky played a pretty weak schedule over the latter half of the season and still managed to lose to Tennessee at home. That being said, the huge blowout win over Louisville really stands out in the minds of a lot of people.

Because Kentucky has more big play capability, I will go against my numbers and call the ‘Cats my lean. I do think that this line should be a touch higher and it is likely a tad too low because of how the teams finished the season. Kentucky blew out Louisville and Virginia Tech lost for the first time in a very long time to Virginia.

This is one of the few bowl games in which I don’t have a strong opinion on anything. Perhaps a live betting opportunity arises.

<strong>Lean: Kentucky +2.5</strong>

Belk Bowl Odds, Pick, & Prediction: Kentucky vs. Virginia Tech

BetDSI

Bookmaker

Bet US

BetOnline

Bovada

<p>Don't miss out on the NCAA showdown between the Ragin' Cajuns and Bobcats. The game is starting at 8:00 ET on ESPN+, and it's hosted by the Bobcats at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center in San Marcos, TX. Get ready to place your bets! The over/under for this game is set at 136 points, and the Bobcats are the home favorites against the Ragin' Cajuns in a Sun Belt conference matchup.</p><h3>LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE RAGIN' CAJUNS VS TEXAS STATE BOBCATS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Texas State Bobcats -1</p><p>This game will be played at Strahan Arena at the University Events Center at 8:00 ET on Wednesday, January 17th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE TEXAS STATE BOBCATS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Bobcats.</li><li>Not only will Texas State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -1.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 136 points, and we like the over with a projected 146 points.</li></ul><h3>Will Louisiana-Lafayette Be The Talk of Strahan Arena at the University Events Center?</h3><p>After their 84-77 win over Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette comes into this game with a 9-8 record. They have gone 2-3 in Sun Belt play compared to their 7-5 non-conference record. On the road, the Ragin' Cajuns have gone 2-7 compared to their 5-1 mark at home.</p>

<p>As the underdog, Louisiana-Lafayette has gone 3-7 this season. They have been the underdog in 10 of their 17 games, compared to being favored in five games. So far, their average scoring margin on the road is -4.6.</p><p>As the underdog this season, Louisiana-Lafayette has gone 5-5 vs. the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 4-5. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Ragin' Cajuns have an ATS record of 5-5.</p><p>So far this season, the over/under record in Louisiana-Lafayette games is 8-7. Today's over/under line of 136 is lower than the average OU line in their games this year (151). In their last three games, the over/under record is 3-0 and the average scoring total in those games is 157 points.</p><p>Louisiana-Lafayette is fresh off a strong offensive showing, putting up 84 points versus Arkansas State. This output is higher than their season-average of 76.8 points per game. The team's top scorer is Kobe Julien, who enters today's matchup with an average of 17.6, while Joe Charles also carries a PPG average of 10.6 into the game.</p><p>Currently, the Ragin' Cajuns' defense holds the 167th rank in the nation, allowing 72.4 points per game. In their previous game vs. Arkansas State, the Red Wolves finished with a field goal percentage of 48% and a total of 77 points vs. Louisiana-Lafayette.</p><h3>Can the Texas State Offense Score Enough at Home?</h3><p>After winning their last game against Louisiana-Monroe, Texas State will look to build on their 4-6 record at home this season. Overall, the Bobcats are 7-10, and they have gone 1-4 in Sun Belt Conference games.</p>

<p>As the favorite, Texas State has gone 3-3 this season, and their average scoring margin at home is -4.0 points per game. So far, they have gone 1-4 at home, and they will be looking to snap their four-game losing streak at home.</p><p>As the favorite this season, the Bobcats are 3-3 vs. the spread. At home, Texas State is just 1-4 vs. the spread this year and 2-6 in their last 10 home games. Over their last three home games, the Bobcats are 0-2 vs. the spread and 0-3 in their last five.</p><p>Today's over/under line of 136 is slightly lower than the average over/under line in Texas State's games this season (137.3). So far, 7 of their 15 games have finished with more points than today's line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 2-1 and the average scoring total is 146 points.</p><p>The Bobcats' offense finished with 67 points in their previous game, mirroring their current average of 70.1 points per contest. The team's top scorer is Brandon Love, who comes into today's matchup with an average of 11.5, while Kaden Gumbs also maintains a PPG average of 9.9 leading up to the game.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the Texas State defense is giving up an average of 70.4 points per contest. In today's game, the Texas State defense will be looking to once again do a good job defending the three-point line, as they gave up just 1 three-pointers while giving up 54 points.</p>

Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns vs Texas State Bobcats Betting Pick & Prediction 1/17/24

BetDSI

Bookmaker

Bet US

BetOnline

Bovada