The Ragin' Cajuns and Red Wolves are set to face off at 3:00 ET on ESPN+. The Red Wolves will host the game at Pensacola Bay Center in Pensacola, FL. The over/under line for this matchup is currently at 152 points, and Arkansas State is favored by -2 to win at home against Louisiana-Lafayette.


The Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves -2

This game will be played at Pensacola Bay Center at 3:00 ET on Saturday, March 9th.


  • We have this one finishing with a projected score of 77-69 in favor of the Red Wolves.
  • Not only will Arkansas State pick up the win, but look for them to cover at -2.
  • The over/under is currently sitting at 152 points, and we like the under with a projected 146 points.

Will the Louisiana-Lafayette Defense Show Up on the Road?

With a record of 19-13, Louisiana-Lafayette has been better at home than on the road. The Ragin' Cajuns have gone 12-3 at home compared to 6-10 on the road. As the underdog, they are 5-8 this season.

Coming off an 80-66 win over Coastal Carolina, Louisiana-Lafayette has won two straight games. Over their last 10 games, they have gone 5-5 on the road.

As the underdog this season, Louisiana-Lafayette has gone 7-6 against the spread. On the road, their ATS mark is 8-8. Over their last 10 games as the underdog, the Ragin' Cajuns are 5-5 vs. the spread.

Today's over/under line of 152 is higher than the average over/under line in Louisiana-Lafayette's games this season (149.4). So far, 16 of their games have finished with more points than today's OU line. In their last three games, the over/under record is 1-2 with an average scoring total of 147 points compared to their season average of 148.1 points per game.

Louisiana-Lafayette's offense had a good outing, putting up 80 points against Coastal Carolina. They achieved a 48.4% field goal percentage and went 9/14 from the free-throw line. Leading the team in scoring was Kobe Julien with 25 points. Hosana Kitenge also added 13 points for the Ragin' Cajuns.

Louisiana-Lafayette's defense is currently in line with the NCAA average for points allowed, allowing an average of 71.1 points per game. On average, opposing teams are hitting 4.6 threes per game vs. Arkansas State. This has come on three-point shooting percentage of 25.9%.

Can the Red Wolves Pull Off a Home Win?

Arkansas State enters this game with a 16-15 record, including a 12-7 mark in Sun Belt Conference play. At home, the Red Wolves have been much better, going 10-3 compared to 7-12 on the road. Their average scoring margin at home is +9.4.

Recently, Arkansas State has been playing well at home, going 8-2 over their last 10 games. They are also coming off a loss to Appalachian State, which dropped their record to 14-5 when favored this season.

Arkansas State has been solid vs. the spread this season, going 20-11-1. They have been even better at home, going 10-3 vs. the spread. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Red Wolves are 8-2 and they are 3-0 vs. the spread in their last 3 home games.

Arkansas State's over/under record for the season sits at 14-17-1, and today's line of 152 is close to the average over/under line in their games this season (153.5). So far, 17 of their games have finished with more points than today's line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 146 points, which is 6 points below today's OU line.

The Arkansas State offense is coming off a game in which they scored 57 points vs. Appalachian State. Overall their field goal percentage was 35.3% while connecting on 5 threes. The Arkansas State offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 27.7 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 34% of their looks from outside this season.

Currently, the Red Wolves' defense holds the 304th rank in the nation, allowing 77.6 points per game. Arkansas State's defense is coming off a game in which they allowed the Appalachian State offense to knock down 49% of their shots on their way to putting up 80 points.