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The third part of our four-part series on handicapping techniques deals with situational handicapping. <strong>Situational handicapping</strong> is fairly self-explanatory in that you look at the situations teams are in and compare that to how teams have fared in that situation in the past.

Situational handicapping methods are measurable, meaning you can tell exactly how they have performed in the past. If you were to specify “NFL road dogs who lost their previous game as a home favorite by at least 28 points are 18-7-3 dating back to 1990,” that is something you can measure precisely.

Some people will refer to situational handicapping as system handicapping, which is fine, just as some people will refer to certain intangibles, such as travel, time changes, etc., as situational factors, which is perfectly acceptable, as well. There’s really no need to get into semantics, which just takes away from the primary goal of handicappers, which should be to come out ahead of the bookmakers.

The one requirement for any situational play is the premise behind the method has to make sense. That’s open to a bit of interpretation, but if you use a bit of common sense you should be OK.

Baseball: <a href="http://bangthebook.com/betting-situations-opposite-approach/"><strong>Situational handicapping</strong></a> isn’t used extensively in baseball for the reason that baseball is a sport that lends itself to statistical handicapping almost exclusively, as well as the fact that players expect ups-and-downs over the course of the season and know there will be days they blow out teams and days where they are blown out. You don’t see the emotion that you often do in other sports.

Basketball: Situational handicapping can be useful in basketball, particularly college basketball where the players are a bit more emotional than their professional counterparts. The NBA is also a good sport for attacking from a statistical basis, while there are fewer games in college. Like baseball, it’s a bit of a chore to try and dig for situational edges when there are games played every night.

Football: If there was one sport that is tailor-made for situational handicapping, it’s football. You have a week in between games, which gives you ample time to look for spots, study line moves and more. I’ll frequently try to find situations where I’m on the <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sports-betting-what-is-public-money/"><strong>opposite side of the betting public</strong></a>, but don’t really make it a requirement. There is also the fact that the season is so short it can be tough to build an accurate statistical base.

Hockey: Situational handicapping is probably more helpful in the NHL than it is in the NBA just due to the difference in scoring. You can get more accurate statistical projections in the NBA than you will in the NHL because of the numbers. If you have a projection of 102.5 in the NBA, it doesn’t really matter if you round up or down, it won’t make that much of a difference. But if you have a projection of 2.5 goals in the NHL, you’re talking a huge difference between two goals or three goals.

Fewer people bet the NHL, so you’re likely to find a couple of decent situations. One I found in a couple of minutes while writing this section of the articles was teams who have won their last two games as home underdogs are 25-59 if they are road underdogs in their next game. Betting on these teams would have yielded a $1,770 loss, while betting against them would have netted a $1,366 profit and an ROI of 8.8%

Situational Handicapping Techniques

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<p>The Marlins (72-67, 40-31 home) will host the Dodgers (84-54, 37-30 away) in game three of this National League series. Starting for the Marlins is Braxton Garrett, while the Dodgers are giving the ball to Ryan Pepiot. Read on to see my pick for this showdown between Miami Marlins and Los Angeles Dodgers.</p><h3>LOS ANGELES DODGERS VS MIAMI MARLINS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs</p><p>This game will be played at loanDepot Park at 6:40 ET on Thursday, September 7th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES DODGERS:</h3><ul><li>In their last ten games, the Dodgers have gone 6-4 vs. the runline.</li><li>The Dodgers have put together a 3-2 record vs. the runline in their last five games as the favorite.</li><li>The Dodgers have gone 1-2 in Braxton Garrett's last five starts.</li></ul><h3>LOS ANGELES DODGERS STRUGGLING VS RUNLINE OF LATE</h3><p>For the season, the Dodgers are 84-54 and 77-61 against the runline. In the NL West, they are in 1st place and have gone 26-12 against division opponents. On the road, Los Angeles have won seven straight series. The Dodgers' season-long over/under record sits at 79-53.</p><p><p>Ryan Pepiot is off to a strong start in his 2023 campaign, boasting a 1-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.29 across three appearances. The Dodgers starter has also been dominant on the mound with a K/9 of 9 and has held opponents to a .226 OBP. His FIP stands at 3.05, indicating that he should be able to maintain his current level of performance going forward.</p></p><p>Ryan Pepiot had a successful outing against the Diamondbacks, surrendering no runs on two hits and earning the win as the Dodgers shut out their opponents 7-0.</p><p>So far this season, the Dodgers' has gone deep 216 times, placing them 2nd in the league. Over Los Angeles' previous five games, they are 18th in runs scored, with their season average of 5.6 runs per game putting them 2nd in the league. The Dodgers' overall team batting average stands at .255 along with an OBP of .339.</p><p>The Dodgers' Freddie Freeman is the team's leader in hits, boasting a .334 batting average. His slugging percentage stands at .572 and on-base percentage at .411 heading into the game.</p><h3>WILL THE MIAMI MARLINS TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS AT HOME?</h3><p>On a record of 72-67, the Marlins are 3rd in the NL East. At home, they have put together a win percent of 56.3% compared to 47.1% on the road. This season, Miami has gone 31-40 against teams who are above .500, and hold an overall series record of 21-22-2.</p><p><p>Braxton Garrett has been impressive in his 27 appearances this season, boasting an 8-5 record and a 3.86 ERA with a WHIP of 1.15. The lefty has gone at least six innings in three consecutive games, and has a K/BB ratio of 136/22 while allowing opponents to hit just .250 against him with a slugging percentage of .421.</p></p><p>Braxton Garrett notched a victory and a quality start in his last outing, guiding his squad to a 6-1 triumph over the Nationals. He yielded one run and three hits in six frames.</p><p>For the season, the Marlins' offense is averaging 4.1 runs per game. Over their last five games they have swung the bats well, sitting 3rd in the league in scoring, with a total of 42 runs. Overall, Miami's team batting average is .260, putting them 4th in the MLB.</p><p>Luis Arraez has been a force to be reckoned with at the plate this season, boasting a .355 batting average and .457 slugging percentage. Over the Marlins' last ten games, Arraez has been on fire, leading the team in hits and batting an impressive .410.</p>

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/7/23

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