Los Angeles Chargers vs New England Patriots Betting Pick & Prediction 12/28/24
The Patriots are +180 on the money line as they face the Chargers at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 28th at Gillette Stadium. The Chargers are favored on the road with a money line of -214. The Patriots are +4 point underdogs, and the over/under line is 42.5 points. This week 17 AFC matchup is being televised on NFLN.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS VS NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Los Angeles Chargers -4
This game will be played at Gillette Stadium at 1:00 ET on Saturday, December 28th.
WHY BET THE LOS ANGELES CHARGERS:
- We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 26 to 17
- Not only do we have the Chargers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -4
- Look for this game to go over the line of 42.5 points
Will The Chargers Win As Road Favorites?
After two straight losses, the Chargers bounced back in week 16 with a 34-27 win over the Broncos, improving their record to 9-6. They currently have a 93.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they can’t win the AFC West. Heading into week 17, they rank 16th in our NFL power rankings.
Against the spread, the Chargers are 10-4-1, including a 9-2 record as favorites. Their average scoring margin this season is +3.6 points per game. Their O/U record is 6-9, with the over hitting in their last two games.
Justin Herbert has posted solid numbers over his last three games, with a passer rating of 110 in week 16, throwing for 284 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 of 31 passing. In week 15, he had 195 yards and 2 touchdowns, and in week 14, he threw for 213 yards and a touchdown. Ladd McConkey led the team in receiving in week 16 with 6 catches for 87 yards, while Gus Edwards had 68 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries.
Heading into week 17, the Chargers rank 18th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 21.9. They are 24th in passing yards per game (200.8) and 23rd in rushing yards (106.5). On 3rd down, they are converting 37.9% of their attempts, which ranks 18th in the league, and they are 8th in red zone conversion percentage.
In their 34-27 win over the Broncos, the Chargers’ defense allowed 245 passing yards on 72.5% completions. They gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed a 6.1 yards per attempt. The Chargers’ run defense gave up 110 yards on 21 attempts, with Denver finishing with 355 total yards. Los Angeles recorded two sacks and held Denver to a 38.5% third-down conversion rate.
The Chargers also struggled to generate consistent pressure, losing the quarterback hit differential by -4. Despite this, they did win the tackles for loss differential.
Are The Patriots Going Win In At Upset At Gillette Stadium
The Patriots are currently on a five-game losing streak, dropping their record to 3-12. They rank 27th in our power rankings and have no chance of making the playoffs. New England is 1-5 at home and 2-7 on the road, and they are 4th in the AFC East with a 1-4 division record.
Against the spread, the Patriots are 6-8-1, with all of their games coming as underdogs. Their average scoring margin is -6.8 points per game. Their O/U record is 9-6, with their games averaging 41.3 points.
Heading into week 17, the Patriots rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They are 29th in the NFL in both points per game (17.3) and total yards per game (298.2). Despite ranking 16th in passing attempts, they are last in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 178.5. On the ground, they are 14th in rushing yards per game, with 119.7, on 26.4 attempts per contest.
Drake Maye threw for 261 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 16, completing 22 of 36 passes, but he did have an interception. Kayshon Boutte led the team with 5 receptions for 95 yards and a touchdown, while Rhamondre Stevenson added 60 rushing yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. New England converted 7 of 12 third downs and scored on 2 of 3 red zone trips against the Bills.
Despite the Patriots’ defense holding the Bills to just 152 yards passing in their most recent game, they still gave up 172 yards on the ground in a 24-21 loss. Buffalo finished with 324 total yards, averaging 6.1 yards per attempt on the ground. New England’s run defense struggled, but they did limit the Bills to 55.2% completions and held them to a 36.4% conversion rate on third down.
In the passing game, the Patriots allowed just one touchdown and came up with one interception. They also managed one sack and two quarterback hits in the game.