Denver Broncos vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Pick & Prediction 12/28/24
The Bengals are favored at -177 on the money line as they face the Broncos on Saturday, December 28th at 4:30 ET on NFLN. The Broncos are +150 on the money line, and the point spread is sitting at -3 in favor of the Bengals. The over/under line is 50 points for this week 17 AFC matchup being played at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH.
DENVER BRONCOS VS CINCINNATI BENGALS BETTING PICK
The Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3
This game will be played at Paycor Stadium at 4:30 ET on Saturday, December 28th.
WHY BET THE CINCINNATI BENGALS:
- We have the Bengals winning this one by a score of 31 to 23
- Not only do we have the Bengals winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -3
- Look for this game to go over the line of 50 points
Will The Broncos Pick Up A Win On The Road?
Heading into week 17, the Broncos hold a 9-6 record, putting their playoff chances at 78.6% despite sitting 20th in our power rankings. Denver is 11-4 against the spread, including a 7-0 mark as favorites. Their O/U record is 10-5, with the over hitting in four straight games.
In week 16, the Broncos couldn’t extend their win streak to four games, falling 34-27 to the Chargers. Denver was a 3-point underdog and couldn’t cover the spread. The 61 combined points easily surpassed the 41.5-point line.
Heading into week 17, the Broncos rank 22nd in our offensive power rankings. They are 10th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.2, but sit 22nd in passing yards per game with 205.5, despite being 10th in passing attempts. Denver is 19th in rushing yards per game, averaging 108.5 on 26.1 attempts per game. On 3rd down, they rank 19th with a conversion rate of 37.7% and are 20th in red zone conversion percentage.
In week 16, Bo Nix threw for 263 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 29 of 40 passes without an interception. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 62 receiving yards on 3 catches, and Audric Estime had 48 rushing yards on 9 carries. Denver scored 17 points in the first half but managed only 3 points in the 4th quarter against the Chargers.
In their 34-27 loss to the Chargers, the Broncos’ defense allowed 380 yards and 74.2% completions. They gave up 263 passing yards, with the Chargers averaging 8.5 yards per attempt through the air. Denver defended the run decently, allowing 117 yards on 28 attempts (4.2 yards per attempt).
Despite struggling to get off the field, the Broncos did come up with one interception and recorded two sacks. The Chargers converted on 50% of their third down attempts.
Will The Bengals Win At Home Over The Broncos?
The Bengals have won three straight games, improving their record to 7-8. After a week 13 loss to the Steelers, Cincinnati bounced back with consecutive wins over the Cowboys, Titans, and Browns. In week 16, they easily handled Cleveland, winning 24-6 and covering the 10-point spread. This puts the Bengals at 9-6 ATS this season, with an average scoring margin of +2 points per game.
Heading into week 17, Cincinnati ranks 15th in our power rankings and has a 6.7% chance of making the playoffs. They are 3rd in the AFC North with a 2-3 division record. The Bengals are 5-3 on the road but just 2-5 at home this season.
Joe Burrow has thrown for 3 touchdowns in each of his last three games, including a 252-yard performance in week 16 against the Browns, where he posted a passer rating of 134. Before that, he threw for 271 yards in week 15 and 369 yards in week 14. Ja’Marr Chase led the team in receiving in week 16, catching 6 passes for 97 yards and a touchdown. Chase Brown rushed for 91 yards on 18 carries in week 16, following his 97-yard game in week 15.
Heading into week 17, the Bengals rank 5th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing yards per game with 267.3, while ranking 6th in points per game, averaging 28.2. Cincinnati ranks 4th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a success rate of 46.8%.
Cincinnati’s defense was dominant in their 24-6 win over the Browns, allowing just 125 passing yards and forcing two interceptions. The Bengals held Cleveland to 20 completions on 34 attempts (58.8%) and limited them to a 3.7 yards per attempt. The Bengals also came away with five sacks and held the Browns to a 25% third-down conversion rate.
Despite struggling to stop the run, giving up 148 yards on just 24 attempts, the Bengals were able to control the game by shutting down the Browns’ passing attack.