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Some regression to the mean has hit the spotlight picks this week in college basketball. It’s been ugly. You’ll have some variance when cherry picking one game a day, even if it’s one of your favorites, so we’ll just have to keep pushing forward.

Coastal Carolina only shot 32.8% from the field last night, despite pulling down 21 offensive rebounds. It is a lot harder to win basketball bets when that happens. Hopefully we get better fortunes on the side or total that we back in tonight’s action.

It is a huge basketball betting board today and the worst day for oddsmakers and risk managers of the season. Prop action is coming in fast and furious and there are well over 100 college basketball games taking money. It is a great day to try to find some value on the amateur hardwood.

Our focus will be on the game between Oral Roberts and North Dakota State. North Dakota State won by seven yesterday and they will look for the sweep on Saturday in this Summit League back-to-back. Odds options were limited with late postings and no overnight lines, but NDSU was -4 with a total of 139.5 at time of writing at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betonline"><strong>BetOnline Sportsbook</strong></a>.
<h3><strong><u>Oral Roberts Golden Eagles</u></strong></h3>
Oral Roberts jumped out to a 6-1 start in conference play before losing the second game of a back-to-back to UMKC by an 81-76 score. You have to give the Golden Eagles credit, as they endured a very challenging non-conference schedule and had competitive losses against Wichita State, Oklahoma State, and to some degree Oklahoma and Arkansas before moving into Summit League action.

Once they got there and played more comparable competition, the wins came. However, they came against some of the weaker teams in this league. The Golden Eagles took a ton of threes early in the season. For the overall campaign, ORU is 26th in 3P Rate at 45.1%, so they’ve taken a lot of threes this year. Ironically, their Assist Rate is just 42.1%, which ranks 333rd in the nation.

It is extremely rare and unexpected to see such a low assist rate with a team that takes a lot of jump shots. Usually teams have to pass the ball around the perimeter to find open looks and guys will rack up assists as a result. Max Abmas is really the only player getting it done in the assist department, averaging 3.6 assists per game.

The Golden Eagles are 27th in the nation at 38.1% from 3. They’re also 14th in the country at the free throw line at 78.6%, as their top-three free throw shooters are hitting 87.7%, 87%, and 90.9% from the stripe. In other words, Oral Roberts is a pretty trustworthy team with a lead late.

On the other hand, the Golden Eagles rank 308th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They are also 310th in ORB% against. This is a team that ranks outside the top 200 defending both the two and the three. In other words, they need to outscore teams to win.
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<h3><strong><u>North Dakota</u></strong><strong><u> State</u></strong><strong><u> Bison</u></strong></h3>
Defense is largely optional in the Summit League, but it is far from a coincidence that the teams that often fare well in this conference are the best defensive teams. One of them is North Dakota State. The Bison don’t force turnovers, but they are a top-100 squad in eFG% against and third in the nation in ORB%. They also play good defense without fouling, as their free throw rate against ranks eighth in the country.

North Dakota State won last night’s game by seven, even though ORU went 11-of-30 from three-point land. Oral Roberts also had just two free throw attempts. North Dakota State was able to take away a big component of ORU’s offense by not letting them get to the free throw line. It was a rather interesting game with a couple of outliers that I wouldn’t expect to carry over to tonight’s game.

NDSU is not a great offensive team, which is a bit concerning given the conference. The Bison did play a very good non-conference slate with Nevada, Nebraska, Creighton, Kansas, and TCU. In conference play, the offensive play has been a good bit better, though not earth-shattering. The Bison do lead the conference in 2P% at 53.1% and are also one of the few teams capable of pulling down some measure of offensive rebounds.

NDSU enters this game second in the conference in 3P% and 2P% defense at 32.1% and 44.1%, respectively. Their defensive numbers were negatively impacted by that non-conference schedule, but they’ve figured things out in conference action. That has been a major contributing factor to the 9-2 start.
<h3><strong><u>Pick &amp; Analysis</u></strong></h3>
Oral Roberts outscored North Dakota State by 18 points at the three-point line last night and still lost by seven points. The Golden Eagles are a regression candidate overall right now, especially when you consider that they play North Dakota State, South Dakota State, and then South Dakota to round out Summit League regular season play.

Those are the three best defensive teams in this conference. Oral Roberts has been able to pad some numbers against some subpar defensive teams. North Dakota State really dictated the tempo in the first game as well, which forces Oral Roberts to be efficient on those three-point shots and also to lock down defensively because it won’t be a shootout. As I said above, ORU needs to outscore teams to win. That means a faster-paced game. NDSU doesn’t play those.

I’d expect this line to go up a little bit and likely even be posted at 4.5 at some places. I like it all the way up to 6. This is a matchup I isolated early in the week and knew I was going to play at any reasonable number.
<h4><strong>Pick: North Dakota State -4</strong></h4>
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Oral Roberts at North Dakota State College Basketball Free Pick & Prediction 2/6/21

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<p>Betting on today's Eagles and Hawks game? Catch the action at Hytche Athletic Center in Princess Anne, MD, as the Hawks hosts this showdown at 4:00 ET on DSN. North Carolina Central come into this Mid-Eastern conference matchup as the -5 favorite. The over/under line currently sits at 136 points.</p><h3>NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL EAGLES VS MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE HAWKS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks +5</p><p>This game will be played at Hytche Athletic Center at 4:00 ET on Saturday, January 27th.</p><h3>WHY BET THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE HAWKS:</h3><ul><li>We have this one finishing with a projected score of 75-68 in favor of the Hawks.</li><li>Not only will Maryland Eastern Shore pick up the win, but look for them to cover at +5.</li><li>The over/under is currently sitting at 136 points, and we like the over with a projected 143 points.</li></ul><h3>Will the Eagles Pull Through as the Favored Road Team?</h3><p>North Carolina Central has been much better at home this season, going 3-1 compared to 3-7 on the road. They come into this game as the favorite, as they have been in five of their 18 games this season. So far, the Eagles are 3-2 when favored.</p>

<p>After a 71-68 loss to South Carolina State, North Carolina Central's record now sits at 10-8. They have gone 2-1 in Mid-Eastern Conference play compared to 8-7 in non-conference games. For the season, they have been outscored by an average of 8.7 points per game on the road.</p><p>North Carolina Central has a solid ATS record of 9-5 this season and they have gone 6-4 vs. the spread on the road. Over their last 10 games as the favorite, the Eagles are 6-3-1 ATS.</p><p>Today's over/under line of 136 for the North Carolina Central game against Maryland Eastern Shore is right in line with the average over/under line in their games this season (139.2). So far, their over/under record is 7-7. In their last three games, the average scoring total is 128 points and their over/under record is 0-3.</p><p>In their latest game, North Carolina Central offense put up 68 points against South Carolina State. They recorded an overall field goal percentage of 47.9% and made 5 threes. Leading the team in scoring was Po'boigh King with 19 points. Ja'darius Harris also added 19 points for the Eagles.</p><p>So far this season, the North Carolina Central defense has been performing well, ranking 75th in the country at 67.7 points allowed per contest. In today's game vs. Maryland Eastern Shore, the North Carolina Central defense will be looking to do a better job avoiding putting opponents on the line. In their last game, North Carolina Central made 17 free-throws vs. the Eagles.</p><h3>No Pressure for Maryland Eastern Shore as Home Dogs</h3><p>After losing their last two games, Maryland Eastern Shore will look to get back on track as they host North Carolina Central. So far this season, the Hawks have gone 5-12, including a 1-2 mark in Mid-Eastern Conference play. Through 17 games, they have gone 0-10 on the road compared to a 2-1 record at home.</p>

<p>Over their last 10 games at home, the Hawks have gone 7-3, and they are coming off of a 72-61 loss to Howard. So far, they have been the underdog 11 times, going 1-10 in those games. As the underdog, they have gone 1-1 this season.</p><p>As the underdog this season, Maryland Eastern Shore has gone 5-6 vs. the spread. In their last three games as the underdog, the Hawks are a perfect 3-0 ATS. At home, their ATS record is 1-2 this season and 3-4 over their last 10 home games. Overall, they are 5-8 ATS this year.</p><p>Today's over/under line of 136 is lower than the average over/under line in Maryland Eastern Shore's games this season (139.7). In the Hawks' last three games, the over/under record is 0-2 and the average scoring total is 131 points.</p><p>In their most recent game, the Maryland Eastern Shore offense concluded with only 61 points against Howard. Throughout the game, they made 10/25 three-point attempts and had a field goal percentage of 35.7%. On offense, Maryland Eastern Shore has been struggling with their efficiency, coming into today's game with a field goal percentgage of 38%. So far, they are 254th in free-throws made on a free throw shooting percentage of 74%.</p><p>Coming into today's game, the Maryland Eastern Shore defense is giving up an average of 72.3 points per contest. Maryland Eastern Shore's three-point defense is currently 68th in the country at 6.1 made threes per game. In terms of overall field goal percentage, opponets have hit 38.8% of their shots vs. Maryland Eastern Shore.</p>

North Carolina Central Eagles vs Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks Betting Pick & Prediction 1/27/24

<p>The San Francisco Giants have been disrespected a lot for being a first-place team. On Tuesday night, they’ll be on the road as an underdog against the Los Angeles Angels, barring a significant swing in the line. It will be the 30th time this season in 73 games that the Giants are a pup. They’re 17-12 in those games to this point.</p>



<p>The Angels are a .500 team, trying as hard as possible to get back into the AL West race, but they already trail by eight games. We’ll see if they can get over .500 and get some positive momentum rolling for the week in this game against the Giants. Los Angeles is the favorite in the -125 range at <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/betus/">BetUS</a> with a total of 8.5 that is showing 9 at some other <a href="http://bangthebook.com/sportsbooks/us/">sportsbooks</a>.</p>



<h2 id="h-san-francisco-giants"><strong><u>San Francisco Giants</u></strong></h2>



<p>It is crazy that there are a lot of people still sleeping on the Giants. San Francisco is now third in position player fWAR according to FanGraphs and boasts a top-five offense by wOBA. Remember that Oracle Park is not exactly known as a hitter’s haven and wOBA does not adjust for park factors. wRC+ does and the Giants are a top-five offense in that metric as well.</p>



<p>This is a really good team and one that got even better recently with the return of Mike Yastrzemski to the lineup. His dramatic grand slam last week gave the Giants a happy highlight and was also an indication of what he can bring to the table for an offense that was already playing well without him. By wOBA, the Giants are effectively on the Dodgers’ level, just to give you a frame of reference on how strong this group is.</p>



<p>San Francisco draws a lefty today in Andrew Heaney and ranks 12th in wOBA in that split. One thing that the Giants rely on against southpaws is the free pass. Their 11.7% BB% is the best in baseball against left-handed pitchers. Heaney, though, only has 20 walks in 62.2 innings of work, so the Giants may have to hit themselves on base.</p>



<p>Anthony DeSclafani gets the call today for the Giants. He’s got a 3.01 ERA with a 3.51 FIP in his 80.2 innings of work. There are a few regression signs in the profile, like a .241 BABIP and a 76.6% LOB% with a below average strikeout rate, but DeSclafani has been able to navigate around hard contact with a solid defensive team behind him and by limiting the opposition to just eight home runs.</p>



<p>DeSclafani actually allowed 10 runs in 2.2 innings in his May 23 start against the Dodgers. We can’t magically remove outings from the ledger, but if we take that one away, he actually has only allowed 17 earned runs in 13 starts covering 78 innings. That would be a 1.96 ERA.</p>



<h2 id="h-los-angeles-angels"><strong><u>Los Angeles Angels</u></strong></h2>



<p>The Angels offense has been quite a marvel this season. Mike Trout has not played in a while due to injury and Anthony Rendon is not having the type of season that we are used to seeing. Despite all of that, the Angels actually rank sixth in wOBA and have had a really nice season on that side. They’re doing it with quality contact, as the Angels have one of the lower walk rates in baseball at 7.4%. They’ve just been aggressive in the strike zone and have hit a lot of balls hard. Their .257 average ranks in the top five and they’ve hit for more power than expected.</p>



<p>Shohei Ohtani leads the charge with his .415 wOBA and 168 wRC+. He’s having a huge season on the mound and in the batter’s box and keeps doing things that we haven’t seen since Babe Ruth. Jared Walsh has also been a huge upgrade to the lineup with his 18 home runs and a .391 wOBA. Even Justin Upton has had a renaissance this season as an above average bat.</p>



<p>It is crazy to see a guy like Rendon with a .230/.305/.348 slash, but to see the Angels performing as well as they have offensively. If Rendon ever gets it going, this offense could really make a huge push when Trout returns from the IL. That should happen sometime next month.</p>



<p>Andrew Heaney goes into this start with a 4.45 ERA and a 3.64 FIP. The southpaw has struck out 75 and only has 20 walks in 62.2 innings of work. Heaney has allowed nine homers, but the rest of his peripherals look just fine and his HR/FB% isn’t that bad as a guy that tilts more towards the fly ball side of the spectrum. The Angels haven’t gotten great starting pitching this season, which is why they’re a .500 team through 72 games despite a top-five offense.</p>



<p>The bullpen has also been rather poor. The Angels pen has a 4.83 ERA with a 4.56 FIP heading into this one. The Giants bullpen has a 3.46 ERA with a 4.14 FIP, so that unit is a regression candidate, but that still looks like an upgrade to the Angels pen.</p>



<h2 id="h-giants-vs-angels-free-pick"><strong><u>Giants vs. Angels Free Pick</u></strong></h2>



<p>The Angels have been able to pad their stats and their record against bad teams. Los Angeles is 17-7 against teams with a losing record and 19-29 against teams that don’t have more losses than wins. The Giants have also feasted on poor teams with a 33-14 record against teams under .500 and a 13-12 record against teams .500 or better, most of those being the Dodgers and Padres.</p>



<p>This game looks like a lot more of a toss-up to me than the line would suggest, so the plus-money price with the Giants is where I’m going in this game.</p>



<p><strong>Pick: San Francisco Giants</strong></p>

Giants vs. Angels Free Pick & Prediction 06/22/21

<p>From T-Mobile Park in Seattle, we have an AL West matchup between the Angels and Mariners. The Angels are 44-57 and they will be looking to extend their three-game winning streak. Seattle, on the other hand, has lost two straight and they are 2nd in the AL West with a record of 53-50.</p>

<p>Wednesday's money line odds have the Mariners at -193, while the Angels are the +161 underdog. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the first pitch from Seattle is set for 3:40 PM ET. BSW is carrying this game on TV.</p><h3>LOS ANGELES ANGELS VS SEATTLE MARINERS BETTING PICK</h3><p>The Pick: OVER 7.5 Runs</p><p>This game will be played at T-Mobile Park at 3:40 ET on Wednesday, July 24th.</p><h3>HOW TO BET THE ANGELS VS MARINERS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Mariners winning by a score of 5 to 4</li><li>However, if you're looking for a run line pick, we like the Angels to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 9 runs and like the over</li></ul><p>Thanks to a five-run 5th inning for the Angels' offense, they cruised to a 5-1 win over the Mariners in the most recent game of this series. Heading into the game, the Angels were at +136 on the money line.</p>

<p>The starting pitching matchup for this game featured Jose Soriano for the Angels, and he went just 3 2/3 innings but gave up just one hit and one earned run. Logan Gilbert went 6 2/3 innings for the Mariners, giving up one run on four hits.</p>

<p>Seattle got on the board first in this game, scoring their only run in the 4th inning. As for the Angels, they didn't score their first run until putting up five in the 5th. After that, both offenses went silent, and the Angels took home the 5-1 win.</p><h3>Angels Records & Stats</h3><p>With an overall record of 44-57, the Angels are eight games behind the Astros for the AL West lead. Currently, they are 4th in the division and have gone 15-15 in AL West matchups. The Angels have won three straight games, and they have gone 7-3 across their last ten games.</p>

<p>At home, the Angels are just 22-29 this season, but they have gone 22-28 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog in 90% of their games, where they have gone 40-50. As the underdog, the Angels have won three straight games. They are also 4-7 when favored this year.</p><p>Despite a negative run differential on the season, the Angels have been a profitable team to bet on the run line, as they are 57-44 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 28-22 on the run line. They have covered the run line in three straight games and have been particularly good as the underdog, going 54-36 on the run line.</p><p>Today, the Los Angeles Angels are on the road facing the Seattle Mariners. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their season average of 8 runs per game. The Angels have played 88 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 51-47. Their games have averaged a combined 9.0 runs per game this season, and they have gone under the total in two straight games.</p><p>Griffin Canning gets the start for the Angels today as he faces off against the Mariners on the road. This year, he has made 20 starts and has a record of 3-10 with an ERA of 5.20. Canning's WHIP for the season is currently 1.42. In his 20 appearances, he has turned in five quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Canning took the loss, going 3 1/3 innings and giving up six earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had given up exactly four earned runs in three straight outings. The right-hander has given up at least one homer in four straight trips to the mound.</p><p>Jo Adell has been the Angels' most consistent power threat this season, as his 15 home runs are the best on the team and 1st in the league. However, he is batting just .197 for the season. Adell has been swinging a better bat of late, going 6/19 in his last six games. Zach Neto has also been swinging a good bat of late, going 7/18 in his last six games.</p>

<p>As a team, the Angels are batting just .234, which is 19th in the league. Their team on-base percentage of .303 is also below average. Overall, they are averaging just 4 runs per game, which is 26th in the league. Their team OPS of .681 is also 24th in the MLB.</p><h3>Mariners Records & Stats</h3><p>Seattle is 53-50 overall this season, and they are in 2nd place in the AL West, tied with the Astros for the division lead. The Mariners have dropped two straight games, and they are 3-7 over their last 10. So far, they have gone 19-12 in divisional games.</p>

<p>At home, the Mariners are 31-22 this season, but they are just 22-28 on the road. As the favorite, Seattle has gone 34-31 and 19-19 as the underdog. This season, the Mariners' series record is 13-16-2.</p><p>Seattle's run line record is 45-58, and they have a run line record of 23-30 at home. The Mariners have a run line record of 22-28 on the road. Their average run margin is +0.1 runs per game. In games they've won, their average run margin is +3.2 runs per game, while in games they've lost, their average run margin is -3.1 runs per game. Seattle has failed to cover the run line in their last two home games.</p><p>Seattle is 12-18 when the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and the over/under record for the season is 42-56. The over/under line for today's game is set at 7.5 runs, and the combined run average for Mariners games this season is also 7.5 runs. Seattle has played 39 games with higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 37.9% of their games. They have played 34 games with lower over/under lines than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 33.0% of their games. The under has hit in the last two games for the Mariners.</p><p>Seattle is sending Luis Castillo to the mound today vs. the Angels, and he comes into the game with a record of 8-10 and an ERA of 3.55. In his 21 starts, Castillo has pitched 124 1/3 innings and has a WHIP of 1.16. Looking at his overall numbers, Castillo has turned in 13 quality starts, and his ERA at home is 3.29 compared to 4.42 on the road. One of his best starts of the year came on July 11th vs. the Angels, where he went six innings, didn't allow a run, and got the win. Most recently, he gave up three earned runs in seven innings of work vs. the Astros.</p><p>Cal Raleigh is having a good season in terms of power numbers, as he leads the Mariners with 20 homers and is also 14th in the league with 62 RBIs. However, he is batting just .209 for the season. Julio Rodriguez has been a better all-around hitter, with a batting average of .263 and 11 homers, which is 3rd on the team. Mitch Garver is also in double-digits in homers but is batting just .168.</p>

<p>Over the team's last seven games, Victor Robles has gone 10/23 at the plate, but he has yet to go deep in this stretch. Julio Rodriguez has one homer in his last five games and is 4/16 in this stretch. J.P. Crawford and Luke Raley have both struggled of late, with Crawford going 2/20 and Raley going 1/21.</p>

Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick & Prediction 7/24/24

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