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Blake Snell and the Giants will host the Cardinals today, as they look to avoid a three-game losing streak. However, they are heavy favorites on the money line, with the odds sitting at -172 compared to the Cardinals at +144. First pitch from Oracle Park is set for 4:05 PM ET.

St. Louis will be starting Andre Pallante, and they are currently 2nd in the NL Central with a record of 82-78. The over/under line is at 7 runs, and the game will be televised on BSMW.<h3>SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS VS ST. LOUIS CARDINALS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: San Francisco Giants Moneyline -172This game will be played at Oracle Park at 4:05 ET on Saturday, September 28th.<h3>HOW TO BET THE CARDINALS VS GIANTS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Giants winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>However, if you're looking for a run line pick, we like the Cardinals to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul>San Francisco wasted a good outing from Landen Roupp, as he went just 3 2/3 innings but gave up just one hit and one earned run. The Giants starter did finish the game with four strikeouts but issued two walks. After Roupp exited, the Giants bullpen gave up five runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work.

On the other side, Miles Mikolas only went five innings for the Cardinals but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. He finished the game with four strikeouts but issued one walk. Mikolas got the win in the game, while Ryan Helsley got the save.

St. Louis had a big 4th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Giants, they scored their three runs in the 2nd inning and were held in check the rest of the game.<h3>Cardinals Records & Stats</h3>St. Louis is 82-78 overall this season, and they are 10 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Cardinals are in 2nd place in the division and have gone 26-26 against other teams in the division. The Cardinals have won three straight games as the underdog, and they are 42-40 as the underdog overall.

At home, the Cardinals are 44-37 this season, and they are just one game under .500 at 38-41 on the road. St. Louis has an overall series record of 27-20-5, and they have won three straight series.When the Cardinals win, they do so by an average of 2.7 runs per game. When they lose, it's by an average of 3.5 runs per game. They are 81-79 vs. the run line this season, with a 40-41 mark at home and a 41-38 mark on the road. They have covered the run line in four straight games as the underdog. As the favorite, they are just 27-51 vs. the run line, but as the underdog, they are 54-28.The St. Louis Cardinals are on the road against the San Francisco Giants today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7 runs, which is below their combined run average of 8.6 runs per game this season. The Cardinals have an over/under record of 74-82 on the year, and their average over/under line is set at 8 runs. In games with an over/under line of 7 runs, they have a record of 2-3-2. The over has hit in two straight games for the Cardinals.Right-hander Andre Pallante gets the start for the Cardinals today as he faces the Giants on the road. He has made 19 starts this season and has a record of 8-8 to go along with a 3.71 ERA. Pallante's WHIP for the season is currently 1.30. In his 28 appearances, he has turned in seven quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Pallante picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Pallante's ERA at home is 3.17, compared to 4.17 on the road.For the season, the Cardinals are averaging 4.1 runs per game, which is 23rd in the league. Their team batting average of .247 is 8th in the league, and they are also among the league's best in terms of avoiding strikeouts. St. Louis comes into the game with a team on-base percentage of .310 and a slugging percentage of .391.

Paul Goldschmidt and Alec Burleson have been the top power threats for the Cardinals this season, with Goldschmidt leading the team with 22 homers and Burleson close behind at 21. Goldschmidt is 4th on the team with 62 RBIs, while Burleson is the team's top run producer so far this season. Over his last five games, Iván Herrera is hitting .471, and Lars Nootbaar has also gone deep twice in that stretch.<h3>Giants Records & Stats</h3>With an overall record of 79-81, the Giants are 4th in the NL West, and they trail the Dodgers by 17 games in the division. The Giants have dropped two straight games, and they are looking to get back to .500 today vs. the Cardinals. So far, they have gone 26-26 against their NL West counterparts.

At home, the Giants are 41-38 compared to 38-43 on the road. This season, they have been good as the favorite, going 46-33 and 33-48 as the underdog. As for their overall series record, the Giants are 25-22-4 and have won three straight series overall.San Francisco is 34-45 against the run line at home this season, and the Giants have a run line record of 81-79 overall. They have a run line record of 47-34 on the road and are 48-33 against the run line as an underdog. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.4, while it is -3.3 in games they lose.Today's over/under line of 7 runs is the lowest of the season for the San Francisco Giants, who have played 86.2% of their games with higher lines. The Giants have gone over the total in three straight games, and their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game this season. Their over/under record is 82-71, and when the line has been set at 7 runs, they are 8-8-2.Blake Snell gets the start for the Giants today and is coming off a great outing in which he didn't give up a run. In that start against the Royals, he went six innings and picked up the win. Looking back further, he has picked up the win in three straight outings. Snell's ERA for the season is 3.12, along with a record of 5-3. Opponents are batting just .165 off Snell this season. Out of his 20 appearances, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 12.55 strikeouts per nine innings.Heading into today's game, the Giants are averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They have been slightly better on the road this season, averaging 4.4 runs per game. San Francisco comes into the game with a team batting average of .238, which is 11th in the MLB. The Giants have been led by Matt Chapman and Heliot Ramos in terms of home runs, as Chapman is 15th in the league and Ramos is 2nd on the team with 22 homers.

Over his last eight games, Michael Conforto has gone 12/32 with four homers and seven RBIs. This has pushed his season average up to .246. Conforto is also currently on a five-game hitting streak. Mike Yastrzemski is also on a three-game streak for the Giants.

St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24

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At 3:30 ET, the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns and Wake Forest Demon Deacons will face off from Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium in Winston-Salem. The Demon Deacons are the -3 point favorites at home, with the over/under line currently set at 61 points. The game will be broadcast on ACCN as both teams look to improve on their 1-2 records. This is a week five non-conference matchup.<h3>LOUISIANA RAGIN CAJUNS VS WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3This game will be played at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 28th.<h3>WHY BET THE LOUISIANA RAGIN CAJUNS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns winning this one by a score of 30 to 26</li><li>Not only do we have the Louisiana Ragin Cajuns winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at +3</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 61 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns Pick Up A Win On The Road?</h3>After a strong start, Louisiana is now 2-1 for the season, following an 8-point loss to Tulane. The Ragin Cajuns, who were +1.5 point underdogs, not only lost the game but also failed to cover the spread. The over/under line was set at 53 points, but the teams combined for 74, hitting the over.Lafayette took an early 7-0 lead, but Tulane responded to take a 17-13 lead at halftime. The Ragin Cajuns then fell behind 38-26 heading into the fourth quarter and managed to add just one more score, while Tulane added 3 points in the final quarter.Ben Wooldridge led Louisiana's offense in their most recent game, throwing for 238 yards and two touchdowns, but he also had two interceptions and a passer rating of 72.92. The Cajuns' offense gained 421 total yards, with 183 yards coming on the ground and 238 through the air. Louisiana's offense moved the chains 22 times, but they still came up short, losing 41-33. 
Bill Davis was effective in the running game, averaging 11.4 yards per carry and totaling 103 yards on the ground. Terrance Carter was the top receiver, with four catches for 79 yards.After giving up 276 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground, Louisiana's defense will be looking to shore up their run defense. Overall, they allowed 359 total yards in their most recent game. Against the pass, they were much more effective, limiting Tulane to just 83 yards through the air on 11 completions.<h3>Will The Wake Forest Demon Deacons Win At Home Over The Louisiana Ragin Cajuns?</h3>Wake Forest is looking to bounce back after a 40-6 loss to Ole Miss in their most recent game. The Demon Deacons, who were +21 point underdogs, not only lost straight-up but also failed to cover the spread. The over/under for the game was set at 66 points, but the teams combined for just 46, resulting in an under. This defeat dropped Wake Forest's record to 1-2 for the season.Ole Miss took control early, leading 20-3 after the first quarter. Wake Forest managed to add a field goal in the second quarter, but the score remained 23-6 at halftime. The Demon Deacons were shut out in the second half, while Ole Miss added 10 more points in the fourth quarter to secure the win.Wake Forest's offense, led by quarterback Hank Bachmeier, totaled 325 yards in their 40-6 loss to Ole Miss. Bachmeier completed 22 of 39 passes for 239 yards, with Taylor Morin as his top target, who caught five passes for 77 yards. The Demon Deacons managed to pick up 21 first downs but struggled to establish a run game, finishing with just 60 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Ty Clark III led the team in rushing with 41 yards on eight carries.Wake Forest's defense will be looking to rebound after giving up 607 total yards to Ole Miss in their last game. The Demon Deacons were particularly vulnerable on the ground, allowing 219 rushing yards and three touchdowns. Ole Miss also found success through the air, with Wake Forest giving up 388 passing yards and four touchdowns. Despite forcing one interception, the Demon Deacons will need to tighten up defensively in their next outing.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Wake Forest Demon Deacons Betting Pick & Prediction 9/28/24

The Bengals and Chiefs are set for a 4:25 ET kickoff on Sunday, September 15th at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The Chiefs are the heavy favorite with a point spread of -6 and money line odds of -253. This week two AFC matchup is being televised on CBS, and the over/under line is set at 48.5 points.<h3>CINCINNATI BENGALS VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -6This game will be played at Arrowhead Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, September 15th.<h3>WHY BET THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Chiefs winning this one by a score of 25 to 18</li><li>Not only do we have the Chiefs winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -6</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 48.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Bengals Pull Off An Upset As Road Underdogs</h3>The Bengals, who were 7.5-point favorites, lost to the Patriots 16-10 in their most recent game, dropping their record to 0-1 for the season. Cincinnati's defense played well, holding the Patriots to just 16 points, but their offense struggled, resulting in a 6-point defeat. The combined 26 points was well below the over/under line of 41 points.After falling behind 13-0, Cincinnati finally found the endzone late in the 3rd quarter with a 5-yard touchdown run from Zack Moss. In the 4th, Joe Burrow connected with Ja'Marr Chase for a 28-yard touchdown, but the Bengals couldn't complete the comeback, despite getting within three points and adding a 51-yard field goal from Evan McPherson.The Bengals' offense struggled in their 16-10 loss to the Patriots, managing only 13 first downs and 154 yards passing. Joe Burrow was sacked three times and finished with 164 yards on 21 completions. Cincinnati's running game wasn't much better, with just 70 yards on 16 attempts.Ja'Marr Chase led the Bengals with 62 yards receiving on six catches. Burrow didn't throw any touchdowns, and the team failed to find the endzone through the air. Cincinnati also had a tough time on third down, converting just 36.4% of their attempts.In their 16-10 loss to the Patriots, the Bengals' defense allowed just 120 passing yards on 15 completions. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 170 yards on 39 attempts. New England finished with 290 total yards, and Cincinnati's defense held them to a 40% third-down conversion rate.Despite their strong performance against the pass, the Bengals' defense managed only one sack in the game. They did have more QB hits than the Patriots and also won the tackles for loss battle.<h3>Are The Chiefs Going To Defend Home Field Advantage?</h3>The Chiefs picked up a 27-20 win over the Ravens, putting them at 1-0 for the season. Kansas City was favored by -3 and they also covered the spread with their 7-point win. The combined 47 points surpassed the over/under line of 46 points.After a 7-7 tie in the 1st quarter, the Chiefs took a 13-10 lead at halftime. Kansas City extended their lead in the 3rd quarter to 20-10 after an Isaiah Pacheco touchdown. The Ravens made it a one-score game in the 4th, but Patrick Mahomes sealed the win with a touchdown to Xavier Worthy.The Chiefs' offense put up 27 points in their 27-20 win over the Ravens, with Patrick Mahomes throwing for 291 yards and one touchdown. Mahomes completed 71% of his passes and was sacked twice. The Chiefs managed only 72 yards on the ground, with Isiah Pacheco leading the team with 45 yards on 15 attempts, including one rushing touchdown.
Rashee Rice was the top receiver for the Chiefs, finishing with 103 yards on seven catches. Mahomes' lone touchdown pass was caught by Rice. Overall, the Chiefs had 21 first downs and 281 yards through the air, averaging 10 yards per pass attempt.In their 27-20 win over the Ravens, the Chiefs' defense gave up 452 yards but still managed to come out on top. The Ravens ran for 185 yards on 32 attempts, averaging 5.8 yards per attempt. Kansas City's run defense was a weakness, but they did limit Baltimore to 20 points despite allowing them to move the ball effectively.In the passing game, the Chiefs allowed 26 completions for 267 yards. Baltimore converted 50% of their third down attempts and managed just one touchdown through the air. Kansas City's defense only recorded one sack in the game.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick & Prediction 9/15/24

FOX will broadcast the week three non-conference matchup between the Ravens and Cowboys, taking place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. The Ravens are the road favorite with a point spread of -1 and money line odds of -118. The Cowboys' money line odds are -103, and the over/under line is set at 49 points for this 4:25 ET game on Sunday, September 22nd.<h3>BALTIMORE RAVENS VS DALLAS COWBOYS BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Baltimore Ravens -1This game will be played at AT&T Stadium at 4:25 ET on Sunday, September 22nd.<h3>WHY BET THE BALTIMORE RAVENS:</h3><ul><li>We have the Ravens winning this one by a score of 29 to 25</li><li>Not only do we have the Ravens winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1</li><li>Look for this game to go over the line of 49 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Ravens Pick Up A Win On The Road?</h3>Despite leading 16-13 heading into the 4th quarter, the Ravens dropped their most recent game to the Raiders, 26-23, falling to 0-2 for the season. Baltimore was favored by -8.5 but lost straight-up, with the Raiders winning on a last-second field goal. The Ravens also failed to cover the spread, with the over/under line set at 42.5 points.Lamar Jackson's 1-yard rushing touchdown tied the game at 23 with 3:57 remaining in the 4th, but the Ravens' defense couldn't hold off the Raiders from getting into field goal range. Derrick Henry's 29-yard touchdown run in the 3rd quarter and a late field goal from Daniel Carlson put the Raiders ahead for good. Baltimore had a chance to extend their lead before the half, but Justin Tucker missed a 56-yard field goal with 2:30 remaining in the 2nd quarter.The Ravens' offense put up 151 yards on the ground on 27 attempts in their 26-23 loss to the Raiders. Lamar Jackson completed 21 of 34 passes for 232 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Jackson was also the team's leading rusher, gaining 45 yards on five attempts.Zay Flowers led the Ravens with 91 receiving yards and a touchdown. Baltimore finished with 21 first downs and 260 total yards. They struggled on third down, converting only 27.3% of their opportunities and Jackson was sacked twice.In their 26-23 loss to the Raiders, the Ravens' defense gave up just 27 rushing yards on 17 attempts, including five sacks and eight quarterback hits. Despite their strong pass rush, the Ravens allowed 233 passing yards on 30 completions. The Ravens' defense forced the Raiders to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down and came away with one interception. The Ravens' defense also limited the Raiders to just 1.6 yards per attempt on the ground.<h3>Will The Cowboys Win At Home Over The Ravens?</h3>The Cowboys' defense struggled to contain the Saints, giving up 44 points in their most recent game, resulting in a 44-19 loss. Dallas fell behind early, trailing 14-3 after the 1st quarter and 35-16 at halftime. Looking at the betting lines, the Cowboys were 6.5 point favorites, and the 25-point loss was a big disappointment for them. The combined 63 points easily surpassed the over/under line of 47 points.Dallas did make it 35-13 in the 2nd quarter with a touchdown from Dak Prescott to CeeDee Lamb, but the Saints responded with another touchdown before the half. In the 3rd quarter, the Cowboys added a touchdown from Prescott to Jalen Tolbert, but they couldn't mount any comeback in the 4th quarter.The Cowboys' offense struggled to get anything going on the ground in their 44-19 loss to the Saints, finishing with just 68 yards on 21 attempts. Dallas' running game was virtually non-existent, forcing them to rely heavily on the passing attack. Dak Prescott threw the ball 42 times, accumulating 285 yards through the air, with 293 yards and one touchdown, but he was also picked off twice and was sacked three times.
Despite the lack of a running game, Dallas managed 20 first downs and went 46.2% on third down. CeeDee Lamb was the top receiver in the game, with 90 yards and one touchdown. On the ground, Rico Dowdle led the team with 30 yards rushing and added 29 receiving yards.In their 44-19 loss to the Saints, the Cowboys' defense gave up 190 rushing yards on 39 attempts, including a long run of 33 yards. Despite holding New Orleans to just 11 completions, they allowed 242 yards through the air and two passing touchdowns. The Cowboys struggled on third downs, allowing the Saints to convert 62.5% of their chances.Dallas managed just one sack in the game and allowed the Saints to complete 68.8% of their passes. The Cowboys also struggled to generate consistent pressure, losing the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials.

Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick & Prediction 9/22/24

The world of sports betting requires handicappers to constantly adapt and evaluate. Things that worked 10 years ago don’t work as well today. Things that worked five years ago don’t work as well today. There are some concepts and philosophies that will always work, but have also been accounted for by the oddsmakers and by other bettors that probably get to the market faster.

Fortunately, we live in an era when there is a lot of new data and people are coming up with new ways of breaking down the games and the players that play them. It creates so many opportunities for fans and bettors to look through different lenses in order to see things with a unique perspective.

When it comes to baseball, specifically, that perspective for me comes in the form of sabermetrics. Over a decade ago, I wanted to know how my favorite team, the Cleveland Indians, makes decisions and values players. So, I researched. And I studied. I won’t say that I was early to the party, but I certainly didn’t arrive all that late. It is something that has been a huge part of my fandom and my handicapping ever since.

There continues to be a pretty sharp divide between old school and new school when it comes to player evaluation. A lot of fans cling to stats like batting average and RBI, while others proselytize about wRC+ and wOBA. While I certainly believe in the advanced metrics far more than the traditional ones, I hate the holier-than-thou attitude some in the stats community have. The best way to induce change and induce a new way of thinking is to reach common ground. I feel like that is part of my skill set when it comes to talking about baseball and I’ll try to do that today with some of the stats that I will reference heavily in my MLB season win totals.

First, we’ll start with some team-oriented metrics:

Pythagorean Win-Loss – Most people don’t care about what should have happened. They only care about what actually happened. Pythagorean Win-Loss records can be a good barometer for teams in line for regression. It is a standings metric based on run differential. Teams that excelled in one-run games may regress the following season. Similarly, teams that got blown out a lot should have better personnel the next year.

As an aside, one-run games are a big deal when it comes to Pyth W-L. Generally, teams are within a couple of games above or below .500 in one-run games. Significant outliers are likely to regress the following season.

BaseRuns – I like to refer to the BaseRuns standings from Fangraphs as well. BaseRuns takes all of a team’s outcomes for and against and removes the context. Think of it like this: If a team goes HR, 1B, 1B, K, K, K, that team scores one run that innings. If a team goes 1B, 1B, HR, K, K, K, that team scores three runs that inning. The same six individual outcomes produced two very different outcomes overall. BaseRuns eliminates that element of randomness and spits out a measure of runs per game and runs allowed per game given all of the individual outcomes. Then, it produces a win-loss record.

3rd Order Win% - An alternate standings metric at Baseball Prospectus that looks at a team's strength of schedule and "underlying statistics" to come up with a win percentage based on the team's performance.

Now, some individual stats for hitters and pitchers:

wOBA – wOBA is my favorite statistic of all. It stands for Weighted On-Base Average. Unlike its predecessor, on-base percentage, wOBA assigns a weighted value to each way of reaching base. When it comes to on-base percentage, there is no distinction between a single or a home run. wOBA has changed that. The weights of the outcomes are assigned based on the offensive climate around Major League Baseball. For example, the weight of a home run was 1.98 runs, the lowest mark since 2007. Walks, however, were the highest since 2011 at .693 runs.

Quite simply, wOBA actually distinguishes between the value of ways of getting on base, thus making it better than most every other offensive metric.

wRC+ - Weighted Runs Created Plus is another popular statistic. The + simply means relative to league average, wherein league average is 100. A player with a 110 wRC+ was 10 percent better than league average when adjustments are made for park factors and the current run environment. Now that we’re in the Juiced Ball Era, or so they say, the run environment is higher, so the baseline is higher. Not that it’s relevant to my win totals or overall handicapping, but you can use wRC+ to compare hitters from previous eras because the stat is adjusted for park factors, leagues, and run environments.

K% &amp; BB% - These seem pretty obvious, but are worth mentioning. These are (Strikeouts / Plate Appearances) and (Walks / Plate Appearances). Those are important stats for hitters, but I will use them more frequently with pitchers.

BABIP – BABIP stands for Batting Average on Balls in Play. Keep in mind that traditional batting average factors strikeouts into the equation because those are at bats. BABIP is a good measure of luck. Hitters with a high BABIP are either making terrific contact, are fast, or are getting lucky. Hitters with a low BABIP either have poor contact quality or are getting unlucky. The same can be said about pitchers in terms of contact quality and luck. Home runs are NOT factored into BABIP because they are not balls in play. Traditionally, the “average” range for BABIP is between .290 and .310, but extreme fly ball pitchers and hitters need to be graded accordingly. Last year, the league average BABIP for hitters was exactly .300.

FIP – I hate ERA. It is such a tremendously flawed statistic. Let’s remember that a pitcher that allows three runs over six innings has a 4.50 ERA, which is widely considered to be bad, but it is a “quality start”. FIP is a better metric and one that I use often. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It is a run metric derived from things that a pitcher can “control” – strikeouts, walks, home runs, and hit by pitches.

It takes the defense out of the equation. Bad defenders can really hurt a pitcher’s ERA by not catching balls that should be caught. FIP takes that element out of the equation. Once the ball leaves the pitcher’s hand, he has no control over what happens. It is all subject to variance, especially once it is put in play. This is a far better way to assess a pitcher’s performance.

xFIP – A derivative of FIP is xFIP, which stands for eXpected Fielding Independent Pitching. The difference between FIP and xFIP is that it recalculates the home run portion of FIP by assuming a league average home run to fly ball rate. Last season, obviously, we had a significant number of home runs hit. The HR/FB% league-wide rose from 12.8 percent to 13.7 percent. It was just 11.4 percent in 2015. The relevance of that will become clearer as we move forward.

The important takeaway here is that we can use xFIP in a similar context to BABIP. Sometimes pitchers are getting unlucky with fly balls that hit a jet stream or just keep carrying. Other times, they are simply making bad pitches. Like any statistic, we have to dig deeper to find out the root cause, but xFIP is a good predictor of future performance. It eliminates some of the noise of small sample sizes.

Pitchers with high ERAs that have lower FIP and xFIP marks are generally pitchers to circle for positive regression. Pitchers with low ERAs that have higher FIP and xFIP marks are likely to regress negatively. There are always outliers, and I’ll discuss them in the season previews and on a day-to-day basis, but keep that in mind.

SIERA - SIERA stands for Skill Interactive Earned Run Average. This is how we get a little bit deeper. If you find FIP to be too oversimplified because it doesn’t take into account whether a pitcher is more of a ground ball guy or a fly ball guy, this is for you. Think about it. Ground ball pitchers will have a higher HR/FB% because they have a smaller sample of fly balls. Fly ball pitchers will generally allow more home runs, but they also allow more fly balls, which will cut into the HR/FB%. Pitchers that allow a lot of line drives are going to give up more hits. Hard contact is a bad thing, no matter how good the defense is. SIERA is probably the best ERA estimator we have, though there are some very good ones at Baseball Prospectus.

The big thing about these stats is that they carry predictive value. That’s what we’re looking for. We’re not looking for what happened in the past. We’re looking for what will happen in the future.

DRS – DRS stands for Defensive Runs Saved. One of the last great frontiers to explore for baseball stat geeks like me is defense. Errors are a poor stat. They only count if the fielder gets to the ball and are based on subjective discretion by the official scorer. Because fielding percentage uses errors, it is also a poor measure of defensive ability.

DRS is somewhat complex. Players are graded on a plus/minus scale, where zero is average. It is measured on location of a batted ball, type of batted ball, and a general description of the speed of the ball. All of these plays are catalogued and a baseline is set. If a ball has a 70 percent catch probability and the fielder fails to make the play, that accounts for -0.7 defensive runs saved. If that play is made, the fielder gets +0.3 defensive runs saved.

Now that we have Statcast data, we’re getting a much clearer picture of defensive metrics based on Catch Probability, Sprint Speed, and a variety of other metrics. Fans and writers have merely the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Statcast data, but it is very important.

Statcast is remarkable. Those that really want to go down a rabbit hole of baseball statistics are going to fall in love with the data. It is something that I have studied a lot and can be found at BaseballSavant.com.

Here are some of the Statcast metrics I’ll be using:

Exit Velocity –We think of pitchers with high BABIPs as “unlucky”. We think of pitchers with high ERAs and low FIP and xFIP marks as “unlucky”. Well, now that we have exit velocities to factor in, we can see if pitchers are simply getting hit really hard. Balls that are hit harder are more likely to go for doubles, triples, and home runs and are also likely to be tougher plays for fielders to make.

I often refer to the "percentile" that the player fell into with regards to Exit Velocity or Hard Hit%. A 97th percentile Hard Hit% means that the player ranked in the top 3% in Hard Hit%, which is percentage of batted balls with an exit velocity of 95+ mph.

xwOBA – wOBA – Statcast does its calculations based on batted ball distance, launch angle, and exit velocity. Using that data, it can estimate hit probabilities, including whether or not balls should be home runs, doubles, singles, etc. xwOBA stands for eXpected wOBA. xwOBA – wOBA is a good indication of pitcher luck. This is a stat I will be utilizing a lot more this season. It is a measure of the gap between a pitcher’s expected wOBA and actual wOBA against. It can work for hitters as well and will be something I utilize in my DFS pieces.

xBA – BA – This is a similar stat. This is eXpected Batting Average minus actual batting average. Pretty simple and straightforward.

Barrels &amp; Barrel% &amp; Barrels/PA% - Barreled balls are a recent development at Statcast to suggest batted balls with a very high likelihood of positive outcomes. A "barreled ball" as defined by Statcast using primarily launch angle and exit velocity is a ball with a xBA of .500 and a xSLG of 1.500. More often than not, those would be doubles, triples, or home runs.

Pitchers that allow a lot of barrels or a high Barrel% have bad command. Hitters that have a lot of barrels or a high Barrel% would grade well in exit velocity, launch angle, and contact quality as a whole.

As far as my MLB analysis goes, these will be the most popular terms and statistics, so I certainly encourage readers to familiarize themselves with these concepts. I will also use additional PITCHf/x and Statcast data.

I would encourage readers to check out more detailed definitions at FanGraphs with the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/offensive-statistics-list/">Offensive Stats</a> and the <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/complete-list-pitching/">Pitching Stats</a>.

Important Statistics to Know for Handicapping Baseball

The National Football League (NFL) is easily the most popular sport in the United States, especially when it comes to betting. NFL betting puts up the biggest numbers every single year, and bettors are always looking for new betting options.

The NFL was founded all the way back in 1920 in Canton, Ohio, and that is where the Hall of Fame is located to this day. There were only a handful of teams in the league when it first started, but it didn’t take long for the league to grow.

There are now 32 teams in the NFL, and the league is broken up into two conferences and eight total divisions. Since the league just continues to be more and more popular, the league has added an extra regular season game for each team to play in.

NFL teams now play 17 total regular season games, and then the top seven teams in each conference advance to the postseason. The NFL regular season begins in September, and the Super Bowl is now played during the month of February.

When it comes to the NFL, the Super Bowl is the event that draws the most betting attention. This league isn’t going away anytime soon, and it’s actually started to become more of an international competition.

This article will not only cover the best NFL betting sites &amp; sportsbooks, but will also provide some tips on how to bet on the NFL.
<h3>Where to bet on NFL</h3>
Knowing where to find the best NFL sportsbooks is a big key if you want to have some success when wagering on this sport. Here are six of the best NFL sportsbooks to use, and all of them are going to be a little bit different.

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Best NFL Betting Sites & Sportsbooks

Seattle Seahawks vs Detroit Lions Betting Pick & Prediction 9/30/24

Tennessee Titans vs Miami Dolphins Betting Pick & Prediction 9/30/24

Buffalo Bills vs Baltimore Ravens Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Cleveland Browns vs Las Vegas Raiders Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

New England Patriots vs San Francisco 49ers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Denver Broncos vs New York Jets Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts Betting Pick & Prediction 9/29/24

ESPN+ will be covering the week seven college football matchup between the Ball State Cardinals and Kent State Golden Flashes, set to kick off at 12:00 ET from Dix Stadium in Kent. Ball State comes in with a 1-4 record, and Kent State is still looking for their first win of the season. The over/under is at 57.5 points, and the Cardinals are -6.5 point favorites on the road.<h3>BALL STATE CARDINALS VS KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: Kent State Golden Flashes +6.5This game will be played at Dix Stadium at 12:00 ET on Saturday, October 12th.<h3>WHY BET THE KENT STATE GOLDEN FLASHES:</h3><ul><li>We have the Ball State Cardinals winning this one by a score of 28 to 27</li><li>Even though we like the Ball State Cardinals to win, our ATS pick is to take the Kent State Golden Flashes at +6.5</li><li>We see this game finishing below the line of 57.5 points</li></ul><h3>Will The Ball State Cardinals Win As Road Favorites?</h3>Ball State enters Week 7 with a 1-4 record, ranked 132nd in our power rankings. Their chances of becoming bowl-eligible are slim, at just 0.4%. On the road, they are 0-3, and they’ve gone 0-1 at home this season. The Cardinals have been underdogs in all five games, with an average scoring margin of -23.2 points. Their ATS record stands at 2-2, and they’ve covered the spread in one of three road games. Ball State’s over/under record is 4-0, with their games averaging 73.2 points. This week’s line is 57.5 points, higher than their average line of 55 points, and they’ve exceeded the total by an average of 17.5 points per game.Ball State’s offense has been centered around their passing game, ranking 25th in passing attempts per game. They are 20th in completions, averaging 24.2 per game, and 79th in passing yards, with 231.6 yards per game. Overall, they are 67th in scoring, with 25 points per game, and we have them ranked 101st in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Kadin Semonza leads the team with 1,133 passing yards and a 67.2% completion rate. He has thrown 11 touchdowns but also has 7 interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 89. On the ground, Ball State is averaging 94.8 rushing yards per game. Braedon Sloan leads the rushing attack with 347 yards.Ball State’s defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 48.2 points per game. In their recent matchup against Western Michigan, they gave up 45 points, including 264 passing yards and 200 rushing yards. Opponents have averaged 301.4 passing yards per game against Ball State, completing 73.6% of their passes. The defense has also allowed 215.4 rushing yards per game, facing an average of 31.4 rushing attempts per game, which ranks 32nd fewest in the nation.<h3>Are The Kent State Golden Flashes Going Win In At Upset At Dix Stadium</h3>Kent State is still searching for their first win of the season, heading into Week 7 with an 0-5 record. They are ranked 134th in our power rankings and have a 0.0% chance of becoming bowl-eligible. The Golden Flashes are 0-1 at home and 0-3 on the road this year.They have not been favored in any of their games so far, and their average scoring margin is -36.6 points per game. Kent State is 0-4 against the spread this season.The over/under line for this week’s game is 57.5 points. Kent State’s over/under record is 3-1, with their games averaging 66.2 points per contest. Their average over/under line has been 55.1 points, and they’ve exceeded it by an average of 17.6 points.Kent State’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 14.8 points per game, placing them 129th in our offensive power rankings heading into week 7. Their rushing game has been particularly weak, with only 76.4 yards per game. Ky Thomas, their leading rusher, has 139 yards and is averaging 3 yards per carry, with no touchdowns. Quarterback Devin Kargman has thrown for 432 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions, giving him a passer rating of 71. Kent State ranks 119th in passing yards per game, averaging 160.8. Their third-down conversion rate is just 17.5%. Chrishon McCray leads the team with 309 receiving yards and four touchdowns.Kent State's defense has struggled this season, allowing an average of 51.4 points per game, including 52 points in their recent game against Eastern Michigan. They gave up 489 total yards, with 276 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. Opponents have averaged 294 passing yards per game against Kent State, completing 68.2% of their passes. On the ground, Kent State has allowed 289.8 rushing yards per game, ranking 187th nationally.

Ball State Cardinals vs Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Pick & Prediction 10/12/24

Carlos Rodon and the Yankees will host the Royals on Monday, with the game set to start at 7:05 PM ET from Yankee Stadium in New York, NY. The Yankees are 1st in the AL East and have an overall record of 82-61, while the Royals are 2nd in the AL Central and have won four straight, putting them at 79-65.

New York is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -182 compared to the Royals at +154. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and this game will be televised on YES. <h3>KANSAS CITY ROYALS VS NEW YORK YANKEES BETTING PICK</h3>The Pick: OVER 8.5 RunsThis game will be played at Yankee Stadium at 7:05 ET on Monday, September 9th.<h3>HOW TO BET THE ROYALS VS YANKEES:</h3><ul><li>We have the Yankees winning by a score of 6 to 5</li><li>However, if you're looking for a run line pick, we like the Royals to cover</li><li>As for an over/under pick, we have this game finishing with 11 runs and like the over</li></ul><h3>Royals Records & Stats</h3>To close out their series vs. the Twins, the Royals picked up a 2-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at -122 on the money line. It was a good performance by the Royals' offense, as they scored their two runs on six hits and didn't hit a home run.

Michael Wacha put together a good start for the Royals, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out seven Twins batters. Kansas City's bullpen closed things out with Lucas Erceg picking up the save.Kansas City is 79-65 overall and trails the Guardians by 2.5 games in the AL Central. The Royals head into today's game on a four-game winning streak, which includes sweeping the Twins in their most recent series. So far, they have gone 33-16 against other teams in the AL Central.

This year, the Royals have been really good as the favorite, going 46-26, compared to 33-39 as the underdog. On the road, Kansas City is 34-35 and 45-30 at home. As the road underdog, the Royals are 18-26 this season, and they have an overall series record of 21-23-2. Currently, they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.The Royals have a run line record of 80-64 on the season, with an average run margin of +0.7 runs per game. They are 37-32 against the run line on the road, where they have a scoring margin of +0.6 runs per game. As the underdog, they are 42-30 against the run line. In their wins, they are covering the run line by an average of 4.0 runs per game.The Kansas City Royals are on the road today against the New York Yankees, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Royals have a combined run average of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 64-75. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 15-25. The over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs for 49 of their games this season, which is 34.0% of their games. Their current under streak is at 4 games.Right-hander Brady Singer is starting for the Royals today as he faces the Yankees on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 9-10 with a 3.35 ERA. Singer's WHIP for the season is currently 1.24. In his last outing, he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had pitched well, going 6 innings without giving up an earned run vs. the Reds. Singer has allowed at least one homer in three of his last four outings.As a team, the Royals are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is good for 9th in the MLB. At home, they have been even better, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league's 13th ranked home run hitting team and have the 7th best team batting average in the league. The Royals are also one of the league's best teams at avoiding strikeouts.

Over his last 10 games, Bobby Witt Jr. has gone just 7/38, but he does have two homers in that stretch. For the season, he is batting .336 with 30 homers and 98 RBIs. Salvador Perez is also having a strong season, with a batting average of .270 and 25 homers.<h3>Yankees Records & Stats</h3>The Yankees will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Cubs with a 2-1 loss. New York was the heavy favorite going into the game but fell behind early, as the Cubs scored twice in the first inning. The Yankees's offense scored their only run in the 2nd and wasted a good start from Gerrit Cole, who went six innings and didn't give up a run.

Cole was also impressive on the mound, striking out seven and issuing just one walk. However, the Yankees couldn't close things out, and Cole took the loss. New York's offense also wasted several good performances, as DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton each had two hits.The Yankees are 82-61 overall this season, putting them in 1st place in the AL East. They hold a half-game lead over the Orioles and are 22-23 in divisional matchups. New York is 37-31 on the road, and they are 45-30 at home this season. As the favorite, the Yankees are 64-54 and 18-7 as the underdog.

New York won the final two games of their series vs. the Cubs and are 4-6 across their last 10. So far, they have an overall series record of 26-16-4. At home, the Yankees have dropped two straight games. The Yankees have been a profitable bet on the run line this season, going 75-68 overall. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 44-31 ATS. However, they have struggled to cover the run line at home, going just 31-37 ATS. They have been a solid bet as the underdog, going 21-4 ATS, but have struggled as the favorite, going 54-64 ATS.When the New York Yankees play at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The Yankees have gone over the line in 31 of their 50 games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs, and their combined run average for the season is 9.2 runs per game. Overall, the Yankees have gone over the total in 78 of their 139 games this season.Carlos Rodón is hoping to build off his last outing, where he faced the Rangers and finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he went six innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back further, Rodón had a rough outing vs. the Nationals on August 28th, where he gave up five earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work. One of the big blows in that outing was a home run. Rodón has made 28 starts this year and has a record of 14-9 with an ERA of 4.20. So far, he has made 14 quality starts and is averaging 10.16 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has given up 26 homers.Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs, but they are also the 2nd highest scoring team in the league at 5 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .251, which is 8th in the league, and have the best team on-base percentage in the league. The Yankees are also 2nd in the league in slugging and OPS.

Aaron Judge has been the league's top run producer this season, with 125 RBIs and is also 1st in the league with 51 homers. Judge is also batting .321 for the season. Juan Soto is also having a great season at the plate, with a batting average of .291 and 38 homers. Over his last seven games, Gleyber Torres is hitting .357, and DJ LeMahieu is currently on a five-game hitting streak.

Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees Betting Pick & Prediction 9/9/24

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